Pre decimal value - where is it heading?

[trout]

There is NO conspiracy here, Just observations.
The quality of the PCGS service has gone somewhat downhill over that last year from my own observations and my sampling is only tiny compared to the big picture.
If I can find problems in such a small sample it stands to reason that there must be many more out there.
What do you propose if we see something that just isn't "Right" ?
Do we just ignore it and "Hope" that things will get better?
Or do we be proactive and try to address the issue ?
Shoving our heads in the sand and ignoring things has never been a good idea :ok:
With most companies that get to the top of their game Complacency can creep into the organization and become a real problem.
Many of us have spent a considerable amount of money getting our coins graded and encapsulated by PCGS and if they continue down the road they are traveling now it will eventually erode the values of our collections.
So once again NO conspiracy here, Just Concern :ok:

[drakesterling]

The quality of the PCGS service has gone somewhat downhill over that last year from my own observations and my sampling is only tiny compared to the big picture.
If I can find problems in such a small sample it stands to reason that there must be many more out there.

Brace yourself, trout, but that comment is totally wrong. The smaller the sample the easier it is to dismiss as statistical noise.

I'm not asking for collectors to put their heads in the sand, but I am asking for evidence-based criticism. All you have mentioned is your poor experience on what you admit is a small sample. This is not evidence, and if your belief that Hong Kong overgrades coins is based on your experience with a this small sample of coins, then you have undermined your entire argument.

spraggdean2 made a very good point in spending hours in exploring Michael Cotton's submission, looking for overgrading across a large number of coins. It was for pre-decimals and you're talking about decimals, so maybe it's a bit different, but spraggdean2's experience should not be dismissed just because he is not as vocal as you.

Moreover, his sample was larger than yours. The bigger the sample, the more accurate the conclusions you can draw, so I would sooner be inclined to take seriously the results of Dean's analysis than yours.

The last step would be to look at the percentage of overgraded coins in submissions from USA and then compare the percentages between USA and Hong Kong, and see if they're different. Now that would be a real evidence-based analysis.

Eric

PS, I'm not trying to be difficult here. I like you trout, but you mentioned a long time ago that you wanted more diverse views on this forum, and that is one thing we both agree with.

[trout]

I haven't bought any of Cottons offerings, I much rather send my own Decimals for grading.
I have however seen some of the wedding set coins that Cotton has for sale on eBay and there are examples of overgrading amongst them.
One coin in particular I think r9453 posted an image of on this forum had a big scratch on the coin and yet it was still graded 69 .

I am concerned about this But if I was to email or ring PCGS about this I would probably be just ignored as I am such a small customer.
However if someone like yourself and a few other of the bigger players voiced their concerns then Maybe just Maybe PCGS will do something to resolve this.
I personally have had nothing but problems with PCGS this year From wrongly attributed coins right through to having coins ruined while they were at PCGS.
I have only sent 12 submissions to PCGS this year that had a total of 117 coins graded.
I had issues with 4 of these submissions which is quite a lot considering I only sent 12.
Maybe I am just being "fussy" But I pay good money for this service and I expect consistency and accuracy , This has not been the case.

[JeffH]

The bigger the sample, the more accurate the conclusions you can draw

I agree. A small sample is likely to have higher variance (either way) than a large sample.

I saw trout's comment and thought exactly that he was wrong in his conclusion about a small sample being an indicator.

[trout]

The bigger the sample, the more accurate the conclusions you can draw

I agree. A small sample is likely to have higher variance (either way) than a large sample.

I saw trout's comment and thought exactly that he was wrong in his conclusion about a small sample being an indicator.

OK,Righto, No Worries.
All that has occurred is multiple isolated incidents that have only affected one customer.
Nothing to see here PCGS is Perfect :angel:
Fat chance I am swallowing that theory :ok:

[r9453]

Ever since I first heard of individual collectors concerns about PCGS results they have been dismissed as aberrations. If trout is not in a position to raise concerns then who is?

[trout]

Ever since I first heard of individual collectors concerns about PCGS results they have been dismissed as aberrations. If trout is not in a position to raise concerns then who is?

The bigger dealers have a vested interest to ensure that nobody rocks the boat, Regardless of whither the concerns are founded or not.
It's simply bad for business.
I KNOW what I have seen this year from PCGS and as a result I wont be sending any more coins to PCGS to be graded, It isn't worth the time, effort and expense just to be disappointed with the service once more.

[r9453]

The bigger dealers have a vested interest to ensure that nobody rocks the boat, Regardless of whither the concerns are founded or not.
It's simply bad for business.

Word. :i_agree:
Getting back to the OP - PCGS have a big influence in the pre-decimal market and it concerns me since I now have over 200 coins in their slabs. At this stage I will continue with my collection but the experience of trout (and others) is a sobering influence and gives me pause for thought.

[nealeffendi]

but I don't think it's wise to blindly believe all these conspiracies, such as PCGS overgrades for bulk submitters,    , or big dealers get "special grades".

Eric

I have concerns about HK (like why no hi-res images) but the other 2 points seem highly unlikely. It would need the graders ALL to agree to engage in an unethical conspiracy with management and for the "special customers" big orders to have identifying features to give the bonus point to. Only takes ONE compromising email or ONE whistleblower to reveal the unethical (and probably illegal) act and the damage to the companies reputation would be fatal (including a class action by irate purchasers of their slabs).
PCGS margins are HUGE, they make a fat profit every year and they would be crazy to jeopardize the golden goose just to add a few million more to the bottom line.
That being said they do need to tighten their management of their grading operations. Too many wrong labels, too many under/over grades and too long a wait to grade are all things that make for unhappy customers (and fishes).

[spraggdean23]

For what is worth I did a comparison of 20 1948 shillings which were obviously graded in the USA some time ago. The PCGS cert numbers are 26063741 to 26063760. The average grade of these 20 coins turned out to be 62.65 however there was one coin which graded MS61 and one which graded AU58. I then did a comparison against the 40 1948 shillings which were just graded and the average grade was 63.10 however there was less variance in the grades with the ones that were just graded as they all graded from MS62 to MS64 which is that to be expected from a mint roll? This would not be accepted as a proper statistical test as the sample size is different and the coins were probably graded a few years apart under different environmental conditions.

[trout]

I really don't think that the predecimals are the problem, at least I haven't noticed any major problems .
In fact I think that PCGS has been somewhat harsh  on a few of my predecimals if anything.
It's the decimals that I feel are where the problems are.
The fact is  Decimal coins are now what new collectors are concentrating on and despite a fairly harsh period of price adjustment are a large part of the Market and from what I have seen that Market is getting stronger.
PCGS need to tighten up on its grading on Decimals and to ensure that they are graded accurately and also attributed correctly as well in future.
As a collector it IS a large expense getting my coins graded and I NEED to be able to have them done without any mistakes otherwise I am just wasting my money.
The "mechanical errors" , I call them for what they are "Stuff Ups" are becoming more frequent, this needs to STOP altogether :ok:

The Very VERY Best way to ensure that nobody complains is for PCGS to get it RIGHT simple as that :ok:

[nealeffendi]

I'd have to agree with you Trout about the Mechanical Error stuff ups. Have seen a few on fleabay in those kiss of death slabs that show nothing to be worthy of that designation (no circular scratch from being the end of a roll or other visible defect).
I'm wondering if any have been cracked out and resubmitted and perhaps given a healthy MS grade?

[spraggdean23]

I really don't think that the predecimals are the problem, at least I haven't noticed any major problems .
In fact I think that PCGS has been somewhat harsh  on a few of my predecimals if anything.
It's the decimals that I feel are where the problems are.
The fact is  Decimal coins are now what new collectors are concentrating on and despite a fairly harsh period of price adjustment are a large part of the Market and from what I have seen that Market is getting stronger.
PCGS need to tighten up on its grading on Decimals and to ensure that they are graded accurately and also attributed correctly as well in future.
As a collector it IS a large expense getting my coins graded and I NEED to be able to have them done without any mistakes otherwise I am just wasting my money.
The "mechanical errors" , I call them for what they are "Stuff Ups" are becoming more frequent, this needs to STOP altogether :ok:

The Very VERY Best way to ensure that nobody complains is for PCGS to get it RIGHT simple as that :ok:

Yes they should get it right in an ideal world however when human beings are involved there is always going to be plenty of mistakes. In saying that if I was in you're shoes I would not of been very happy at all with the outcome you received with the coins that got fingerprints on them while they were at PCGS being graded.

[trout]

In saying that if I was in you're shoes I would not of been happy with the outcome you received with the coins that got fingerprints on them while they were at PCGS being graded.

That was just the straw that broke the camel back Mate and it is only one of Many issues that I have had with PCGS.
Up until this year I only had the occasional Stuff Up and I just "rolled with the punches" and hoped for a better outcome next time.
This year it just got out of control :cray:
I sent my last submission to PCGS August this year and that is the very last submission that they will get from me, Enough is enough I can't be bothered being screwed around by PCGS anymore.
I sent my first submission to NGC at about the same time as I sent that last one to PCGS and I had absolutely NO problems with it and it was also back in my hands Way before the PCGS submission was.
Since then I have sent another 90 coins to NGC 60 of them have already been done and I am just waiting on the last 30 coins now.
The grading has been good, NO "Mechanical errors" the turnaround times are pretty fast, the customer service has been excellent and on top of all that NGC is more competitively priced than PCGS.

For Me the decision to move over to NGC is a NO Brainer :yahoo:

[autocoupler]

How times change. It's not that long ago when any derogatory remark made about the generally accepted leading light of TPG's would be defended vigorously and to the hilt by most who comment on such matters on this forum, and at the same time the so called pretender to the throne would be   nearly always referred to as inferior and kicked all over the park.

I can understand how individuals in any form of endeavour will occasionally feel poorly treated and so vote with their feet, but without clear and accurate results from proper sampling and consideration, I would think the general population may find it hard to justify changing allegiances in any of the cut and thrust that life throws up. One thing is clear though, it doesn't take much discontent and innuendo before the white ants assemble :angel: