Pre decimal value - where is it heading?

[Fulvio]

I think that many collectors don't even look too closely at the actual coins themselves these days and simply rely on what is printed on the slab.

That's kind of my point.

If you take a hundred coins and examine them, anyone can pick out the best and worst.

But a hundred identical slabs? Most people won't even look at them. Which might be fine for investors dabbling in coins, but not for collectors, especially newcomers.

[drakesterling]

Trout

Being new at this just had a look at the NGC site and there are varying degrees of membership.
Can you offer any more advice on what level is best.   As I said I'm pretty new at this and over time will be getting my coins graded

If you are only going to get a few coins a year graded I recommend that you get Eric to submit them for you.
This would be more cost effective for small numbers of coins with the added benefit of the coins being assessed by Eric to make sure that they will grade OK as well.
If you intend to send your own submissions in them make sure that you are confident that the coins haven't been cleaned in any way and that you also have confidence in your own grading abilities.
There is nothing more disappointing than getting your grading results with boddybagged coins or lower grades than you expected.
Trust Me, Been there and done that :cray:

Thanks for the plug trout. I really appreciate that both of us can have a vigorous debate and still come together afterwards to have a beer.

Eric

Call me a troll if you will, but I find it quite hilarious that the whole TPG thing was designed to remove doubt (at a huge cost, I might add), and is now becoming the source of doubt itself.

Personally, I think a better path would have been for everyone to just learn to grade for themselves, and not outsource the responsibility to unknown parties.

It is true that people should learn to grade, but there is no such thing as a "grading standard" until someone defines it, which is what PCGS has done.

When PCGS was first being introduced in Australia, Klaus Ford and others would constantly suggest that people should learn how to grade instead of relying on a third-party services (good advice, of course). But when a dozen different dealers would give you different grades on the same coin, it made it difficult for collectors to learn how to grade at all. How was a collector to learn how to grade when everyone graded differently?

What PCGS has done is define the standard and allow people to see enough consistently-graded coins to learn how to grade. It's not perfect, and there'll always be disagreement, but PCGS (and NGC) is broadly a positive for our hobby, both here and overseas.

Eric

[Fulvio]

What PCGS has done is define the standard and allow people to see enough consistently-graded coins to learn how to grade.

Yes, I'll grant you that. But as you say, its not perfect. Of course it can never be, but the way I see it, uninformed and lazy buyers simply abdicate their responsibility to judge for themselves, and buy the package, not the contents.

Of course, as a collector of errors, which are for the most part never ever going to see the inside of a slab, I can sit back and snigger at all the hair-splitting. But people throw insane amounts of money at these things, and I can't help but feel a lot of them are going to come to grief.

The only guaranteed winners in this are the TPG's, I reckon. :dodgy:

[drakesterling]

What PCGS has done is define the standard and allow people to see enough consistently-graded coins to learn how to grade.

Yes, I'll grant you that. But as you say, its not perfect. Of course it can never be, but the way I see it, uninformed and lazy buyers simply abdicate their responsibility to judge for themselves, and buy the package, not the contents.

Of course, as a collector of errors, which are for the most part never ever going to see the inside of a slab, I can sit back and snigger at all the hair-splitting. But people throw insane amounts of money at these things, and I can't help but feel a lot of them are going to come to grief.

The only guaranteed winners in this are the TPG's, I reckon. :dodgy:

Only truly rare coins will be ok at these high prices. PR70 decimal coins: overhyped. An MS66 George V sovereign: This is genuinely difficult, and can be had for the same price as a PR69 round fifty cent. I know which I'd prefer.

Eric

[trout]

Thanks for the plug trout. I really appreciate that both of us can have a vigorous debate and still come together afterwards to have a beer.

That's because we are Both on the same side Mate :ok:
We both agree that both PCGS and NGC are a breath of fresh air and are a far far better way for collectors to have confidence in what they are buying than the old wink, wink Nudge, Nudge dealer/seller grades in the not so distant past.
The chances of getting a "lemon" when buying a top tier TPG graded coin are very small, BUT there IS a chance of it happening, Even you would have to concede that this can and does happen on occasion.
My concerns are that from my own observations and from a few coins that I have seen lately that have been graded recently by PCGS is that the very stringent guidelines they have in place are becoming eroded and the once very rare occurrence of a badly graded/attributed coin slipping through the "safety net" has now become Not so rare.
I am Not alone in this thinking, NGC will now NO longer accept PCGS or any other TPG graded coin into their set registries and their reasons for this decision is the lowering of grading standards of the other companies.
Many may consider me a Mad Man just barking at the Moon with my concerns, That's fine it really doesn't bother me But can you say the same in regards to NGC's Mark Salzberg?

This is a quote from a recent announcement from NGC regarding the non acceptance of non NGC graded coins in the set registries.
http://coins.www.collectors-society.com/news/ViewArticle.aspx?IDArticle=5627&NGC-Registry

When the NGC Registry was started, it allowed participants to build sets that included coins graded by other services, which were treated equally to NGC-certified coins when points were assigned and sets were ranked. After seeing the dramatic changes at other grading services over the last few years, however, I am no longer confident that their current standards are equal to their former standards or to those that NGC has maintained for nearly 30 years.

Like I said we are Both on the same side here, admittedly I am not as diplomatic or conservative as yourself But I do share the same passion for this hobby and if I see anything that has the potential to do the hobby harm I will "Speak Up" :ok: :angel:

[Fulvio]

I am not as diplomatic

GASP! Who'da thunk it? :angel:

[trout]

HeHe
Love It

[wwwww]

Thanks for the plug trout. I really appreciate that both of us can have a vigorous debate and still come together afterwards to have a beer.

That's because we are Both on the same side Mate :ok:
We both agree that both PCGS and NGC are a breath of fresh air and are a far far better way for collectors to have confidence in what they are buying than the old wink, wink Nudge, Nudge dealer/seller grades in the not so distant past.
The chances of getting a "lemon" when buying a top tier TPG graded coin are very small, BUT there IS a chance of it happening, Even you would have to concede that this can and does happen on occasion.
My concerns are that from my own observations and from a few coins that I have seen lately that have been graded recently by PCGS is that the very stringent guidelines they have in place are becoming eroded and the once very rare occurrence of a badly graded/attributed coin slipping through the "safety net" has now become Not so rare.
I am Not alone in this thinking, NGC will now NO longer accept PCGS or any other TPG graded coin into their set registries and their reasons for this decision is the lowering of grading standards of the other companies.
Many may consider me a Mad Man just barking at the Moon with my concerns, That's fine it really doesn't bother me But can you say the same in regards to NGC's Mark Salzberg?

This is a quote from a recent announcement from NGC regarding the non acceptance of non NGC graded coins in the set registries.
http://coins.www.collectors-society.com/news/ViewArticle.aspx?IDArticle=5627&NGC-Registry

When the NGC Registry was started, it allowed participants to build sets that included coins graded by other services, which were treated equally to NGC-certified coins when points were assigned and sets were ranked. After seeing the dramatic changes at other grading services over the last few years, however, I am no longer confident that their current standards are equal to their former standards or to those that NGC has maintained for nearly 30 years.

Like I said we are Both on the same side here, admittedly I am not as diplomatic or conservative as yourself But I do share the same passion for this hobby and if I see anything that has the potential to do the hobby harm I will "Speak Up" :ok: :angel:

I agree that they do make mistakes but they always have and I don't think their accuracy has been slipping - 100% accuracy is not possible - perhaps it is just your own grading skills that are improving to the point where you're able to more confidently detect their mistakes.

[trout]

perhaps it is just your own grading skills that are improving to the point where you're able to more confidently detect their mistakes.

I am starting to wish that i had never learned how to grade, I used to be quite content in my ignorance :angel:

[stevo1962]

perhaps it is just your own grading skills that are improving to the point where you're able to more confidently detect their mistakes.

I am starting to wish that i had never learned how to grade, I used to be quite content in my ignorance :angel:

I think you would rather know what you have and not have to rely on what someone  told you.After all many of us invest a lot of time and money into this hobby/business so we really need to know what we have in our hot little hands

[kchan1111]

I agree that they do make mistakes but they always have and I don't think their accuracy has been slipping - 100% accuracy is not possible - perhaps it is just your own grading skills that are improving to the point where you're able to more confidently detect their mistakes.

Came across this video on NGC's temporary coin grading room at the show. I think PGCS would have the same procedure: 2 graders have to agree then a final check. You have to be pretty unlucky to have all three stuffed up?

https://youtu.be/QA7eN8ypSpw

The final walkthrough of the grades was pretty interesting.

[duggee27]

"The final walkthrough of the grades was pretty interesting"

i agree..

.. had dings in wrong place ...

.. AU details obv. cleaned ... rev. is original ... if less cleaned might have netted it 53..

...obv. is most important side of coin ... grade the obv....

:scratch_one-s_head::scratch_one-s_head:

[wwwww]

I agree that they do make mistakes but they always have and I don't think their accuracy has been slipping - 100% accuracy is not possible - perhaps it is just your own grading skills that are improving to the point where you're able to more confidently detect their mistakes.

Came across this video on NGC's temporary coin grading room at the show. I think PGCS would have the same procedure: 2 graders have to agree then a final check. You have to be pretty unlucky to have all three stuffed up?

https://youtu.be/QA7eN8ypSpw

The final walkthrough of the grades was pretty interesting.

On any individual coin it's highly unlikely that all 3 miss something but when you consider the sheer number of coins they grade per year then the likeliness increases.

[trout]

If I remember correctly PCGS was pretty Much "Snowed Under" for a few months this year and the probability of them making mistakes would have increased because of this.
I imagine that the graders would have been under the pump to catch up with the backlog and would have rushed it on some submissions, This is a recipe for making mistakes :ok:

[trout]

Lets put this PCGS issue aside and look at the other factors affecting the values of Decimal coins, In particular the slabbed coins because that is only a small part of the picture :ok:
Over the last couple of years there has been a rapid increase in the population figures for graded Australian Decimals and I am thinking that Collectors are now getting their own coins graded instead of relying on acquiring these via dealers, eBay and other venues.
Also some dealers have stepped up the pace and are now sending a lot more coins away to be graded for sale on the market.
These two things have to have a downward effect on prices achieved, Supply and Demand.
Then we have the realization that many collectors have that High grade Decimal coins are really not that rare or impossible to find, It's just that not that many had been graded So that the Pop figures for graded coins are disproportionate to what is actually still available Raw.
This will affect what a collector will be willing to pay or bid for any given coin.
Yes the MS68 or better circulation coins (Excluding the years 2002-2009) ARE tough to find and any coin with a 70 grade can be added to this But anything else is still available  in numbers.
I think that "The Honeymoon is Over" where just because a Decimal coin is in a slab automatically made it rare and desirable and was sold accordingly.
The "Novelty" factor of owning a slabbed coin WAS a factor in the prices achieved in the past But now collectors have become accustomed to the idea of having TPG graded coins in their collections they are becoming more "Astute" in their buying practices.

With every new concept there is a "Bubble" period initially But then everything settles down and becomes business as usual, This is what IMHO is happening with not only the Graded Decimal coins but for all graded coins.
This is actually a Good thing because when the dust settles both buyers and sellers will have a "stable" marketplace that isn't scaring new collectors away with inflated values :good:

End of Rant.................................For now