NGC Vs PCGS set registry

[duggee27]

worth reading ....

https://www.ngccoin.com/news/article/5740/?utm_source=marketo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=17-NG-2181-NGCResearchPCGSPopulationsAndPrices&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTVdVNU1XTXhNemt6WWpZMiIsInQiOiJESkgwcE1QTXlPTWZPS1NBM0hpcWNhbGxsYzVzV2llNHJxNTRlVjFPQys3XC9VWGJ4Uk0rb0l5eHp3RTYyRExIdEprT2FSS2t4djUzcmFcL29qNUllbDNrV1c1aGpia1daR1BwZ29tMnFlaTdqa1BJXC9ZakFRUWJqREs4T3VvTndSZSJ9

[autocoupler]

From someone who's not completely over the top of the TPG market, the first impression I get from the article is that some doubt is being cast upon PCGS's grading standards, although, no evidence was put forward for this, apart from highlighting a reasonably sudden increase in the population of top grades. To run with the sentiment being put forward, IMO you would need to believe the vast majority of coins are registered with PCGS, and that all existing coins of top grade were submitted early on in the companies history.

Is it not entirely possible that as the popularity and dominance of PCGS emerged in the TPG marketplace, more and more raw coins that had been  previously locked away in unknown collections made their way to the grading table?

I think the Australian market at the moment may be a prime example of this. Just my Two Bobs worth. :scratch_one-s_head:

[Unicorn]

An interesting post Duggee.

Could it not be explained by purely demand vs supply?

For example, people have come to realise that having a coin professionally graded assists both the buyer and the seller of coins in the determination of the grade of the coins. This could have the impact reflected in the graphs shown where more people purely had the coin sitting in their collection graded whereas prior to that it may have just been housed in a 2x2.

Accordingly, those same people may have thought perhaps that they would sell there coin in hope of obtaining one of a higher grade. This would increase supply of perhaps the lower grades, thus decreasing the sale price / value.

On a similar note, some holders of NGC coins may have cracked their slabs and had the coin regraded by PCGS (due to perhaps the rising market attention for PCGS coins), that too increasing the population of those coins. (A simple shift in population from NGC to PCGS).

Anyhow, it's still an interesting blog to read, however the accountant in me says that if you look hard enough you can always find statistics to support any particular opinion.

Again, regardless, it sure is an interesting read.

[nealeffendi]

worth reading ....

https://www.ngccoin.com/news/article/5740/?utm_source=marketo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=17-NG-2181-NGCResearchPCGSPopulationsAndPrices&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTVdVNU1XTXhNemt6WWpZMiIsInQiOiJESkgwcE1QTXlPTWZPS1NBM0hpcWNhbGxsYzVzV2llNHJxNTRlVjFPQys3XC9VWGJ4Uk0rb0l5eHp3RTYyRExIdEprT2FSS2t4djUzcmFcL29qNUllbDNrV1c1aGpia1daR1BwZ29tMnFlaTdqa1BJXC9ZakFRUWJqREs4T3VvTndSZSJ9

I've noticed that the number of high end pre decimals has jumped and that the prices have fallen. Three years back I had the only MS64+ '54 Comm florin with about 15 higher at MS65. Now there are 5 at 64+, 26 at 65 and 4 at 66, I only paid $283 as BIN on my MS65 and my 64+ has much greater eye appeal. How did those 4 that made 66 all turn up in the past 3 years?

[drakesterling]

So the chairman of NGC says that PCGS's standards are slipping. What a surprise.

To be fair, there has been an explosion of decimal coins in higher grades, but I think it has more to do with the volume of coins that has been graded.

I've also noticed that most of the examples Mr Salzberg gives in his report are modern coins, too.

Maybe the populations have increased so much because everyone is sending their coins to PCGS! haha

Eric

[trout]

That IS a good article and it does bring up some very valid points.
If you notice at the end of the article Mark Salzberg  has this to say.

As a collector myself, there are some questions I always ask before making any purchase:
Has the graded coin population changed in the last six months, year, two years or five years?
If it has, can the change be explained by the discovery of a hoard or an increase in submissions?
How has the price changed in the last six months, year, two year or five years?
What is the price difference between this grade and a grade point lower?
Is this coin a good value?
I encourage everyone to ask these same questions. An informed buyer is a smart buyer. And remember: buy the coin, not the holder.

Up until as recently as 3-4 years ago you could count the number of PCGS MS70 coins on your fingers.
Yes the population figures have increased But on an average the grades have increased at a Far grater rate especially the MS70 grades within the Decimal populations.
This cannot be explained away by simply saying that there are more coins being graded because prior to 3-4 years ago there were NO MS70 grades in certain coins even though there were healthy populations of these coins graded at that time.
If that same number of coins was to be submitted for grading Now then all of a sudden they would become not an MS69, Magically they would be transformed into a MS70 coin.:angel:

Many of the people that are "Poo Pooing" the idea that gradeflation is a real problem with PCGS have a vested and financial interest in dismissing this problem.
This gradeflation is evidenced by the popularity of the older PCGS slabs because when cracked out and resubmitted they usually have a very good chance of getting a better grade than they were graded at originally, Have a think about that for a spell and ask yourself "Why is this So".
With a Large majority of collectors now not Bothering to learn how to grade and relying heavily on the TPG's to do that for them it is even more important that the TPG's maintain their grading standards and NOT relax them by overgrading and "Market" grading coins.

At the end of the day learning to grade with a reasonable degree of accuracy if you want to collect the top of the range coins is still as vitally important as it ever was and remember:
Buy the coin NOT the Slab
Regardless of which TPG has graded the coin :ok:

[stevo1962]

New graders so probably new tolerances in grading scores ,so higher grades are probably due to a combination
of that and a greater volume of coins being graded because of the increased acceptance from collectors and some dealers
are cashing in.Well probably one in particular.It's just progress for TPG coins in Australia

[ausjack]

Does that cover APCGS :mocking: Sorry I really can't help myself sometimes :angel:
:scratch_one-s_head: and who could that dealer be Stevo, don't worry I think we all know mate :winkextra:

[Unicorn]

The article would have been a little more informative if the NGC populations were graphed along side the PCGS ones, even though it potentially would have shown a bit of distortion due to the "cracked out" crossedover coins.

That raises an interesting question perhaps ..... if I were in a position where I had a MS70 coin, what would stop me having it graded as such then cracking it out and submitting it over and over and over thus increasing the PCGS population when only the single coin was graded? (Why you'd want to do that ...... who knows? ..... Just playing the Devil's Avocado ... [for all the Ronnie Johns fans])

[stevo1962]

Maybe this one should cross over.I suspect it would be worth far more in a PCGS slab

[trout]

It's just progress for TPG coins in Australia

It is NOT Progress at all, It is a step backwards and if this trend by PCGS isn't addressed then ALL of our PCGS graded coins will rapidly loose their value.
I have Hundreds of PCGS graded coins and this IS an issue that I am concerned about.

[stevo1962]

It's just progress for TPG coins in Australia

It is NOT Progress at all, It is a step backwards and if this trend by PCGS isn't addressed then ALL of our PCGS graded coins will rapidly loose their value.
I have Hundreds of PCGS graded coins and this IS an issue that I am concerned about.

So how will you address your problem considering that it's a free market .I'm in the process of dumping my easy to obtain mid grade coins for rarer examples that will never be graded in bulk but that's just me on a quest to continually upgrade my collection.I think it's a case of keep moving or get left behind

[trout]

So how will you address your problem considering that it's a free market

I am seriously thinking of selling ALL my PCGS graded coins before they loose any more value, Many of which are the single finest graded or equal finest at the moment.

I'm in the process of dumping my easy to obtain mid grade coins for rarer examples that will never be graded in bulk but that's just me on a quest to continually upgrade my collection.I think it's a case of keep moving or get left behind

What happens if this trend at PCGS continues or gets worse and your rarer examples get flooded out with overgraded/Market graded coins, Are you willing to take that sort of a "Hit" when the values plummet ?
The Best case scenario is that PCGS pulls it's head in and go back to grading the way they did 5 years ago and stops this foolishness before any more damage is done :good:

[ausproofs]

Here is my 2c worth.

1. More coins are graded by people now they see the market is paying more for TPG graded coins. Hence the number of coins graded at a certain level increased in the last 3 years or so (dont forget Australians only started grading there coins in bulk from 2012 or so. Therefore all the hordes getting graded now.)
2. Coin value has gone down due to supply and demand. Also we dont have GFenton and Timbertop going at coins harder anymore. Timbertop will go harder at coins if it is single finest etc. However there is no second heavy hitter in the market to get to super high level.
3. PCGS grades coins harsher than NGC. In my experience only lessthan 10% chance of a NGC coin getting a higher grade with PCGS.

[trout]

I first started to get coins graded by PCGS in 2013 and I  sent quite a few coins in for grading that  came from Wedding sets and these had a reasonable number of coins on the PCGS population at that time.
Between 2013-2015 I would have sent probably 20 wedding sets to PCGS to be graded and NONE of the coins were graded at MS70 at that time, that is zero MS70 out of about 120 coins.
All of a sudden in 2016 the population of the MS70 wedding set coins exploded.
Why is it that in 2016 the same coins were getting higher grades on average than they were in 2013-2015 ?

This problem with PCGS lowering its grading standards is relatively new But it has been noticed not only with Australian coins but in the US and Canada as well.
Last year NGC changed its ruling of allowing PCGS graded coins to be added to the NGC set registry because of this problem.

It will be interesting to see how PCGS responds to what Mark Salzberg has written and hopefully they will do something positive to address what is currently happening at PCGS.