DO YOU THINK THE NEW PRICING IN THE BOOK IS MORE REALISTIC IN THE MARKETPLACE

[oh my florin]

wow, just wow.
if I bought shares in anz and they went up to $10 a share then dropped to $8 a share I couldn't say that they are still worth $10 a share because the market is simply not willing to pay that.
likewise with coins, market value is based on supply and demand premise and at the moment the demand is low so the market value is reduced. simple.
likewise if I found a bag full of 100 mint uncirculated 1910 florins and got them all graded then the supply would increase and likewise the market value would decrease in response.
you cannot predict 100% what will happen to the market but the one thing you can be certain of is that market values will change over time, it just happens that this time many items have reduced in value and you have reported on that staking your respected reputation on the fact that you are impartial and right.
He needs to get over his on paper losses and move on because I assure you he will not succeed in a legal action on this matter but will continue to reduce his holdings engaging in one

Did he seriously threaten legal action? I mean come on that is utterly stupid. If you don't mind me asking Greg what in the world did the person think you did so wrong to merit legal action? (the recently wrapped up one.) I mean you are just publishing price movements in the market. I think now days there are people with more dollars than cents if you know what I mean.

[serial]

absolutely the previous auction result can be an indicator of value, but you have to consider the supply aspect as well. when an item has multiple people interested in it and only 1 such item available then an auction can cause an artificially high price. if after the sale other people go "gee I might sell my item now they are going for that!" then supply increases and demand has decrease by at least one and the price is driven down. This is how most numismatics values are driven up or down however I consider ultra rare items like patterns (eg population of 50 or less) to work on a different playing field as supply is limited not only by availability but also by existence (1937 3d 16 coin mintage vs 1930 penny 3000).  
eg the only way you may see such an item is if someone passes away, is in dire need of money or wishes to profit take on the item. and under these terms you may only see the item appear on market once every decade or so. this means that values are out of date as the market has changed drastically since the last sale and you cannot quantify its current value without actually seeing it sell.
hence my suggestion to report sales figures only on ultra rare items

in the end I doubt someone who is considering purchasing a $400k coin is going to use a $30 guide as his sole source of investment advice
I am interested as to what he offered under his notice of intention to sue? only thing I could think of is defamation of the coins character and reputation ;P
but seriously I would think that it would be unreasonable to issue based on someone's opinion of the value of what you own unless you could prove it was malicious in intent and could prove a loss at which point see my previous statement about investment advice

[Greg McDonald]

Hi Serial,
I take you point about not putting a price in the body of the text and just referring to auction sales. I've occasionally included recent auction activity when a coin is of special interest or rarely seen in the market place and all LSD pattern coins certainly fall into this category.  Problem is, where do you start and finish. If we decide on only 'single digit issues' to treat in this fashion you'd have to include all the gold sovereigns and half sovereign patterns, proofs and specimen issues as well as the 1920 Sydney Mint sovereign.  All the Adelaide ingots are unique and just don't appear in Auction.  Taylor and Port Phillip gold, silver and copper issues  also fit this criteria. You'd also have to include all but a handful of all the pre-decimal George V and George VI bronze and silver issues.  We're now talking over 100 issues. Just to round things off we're also looking at the £20, £50 & £100 notes, the £1,000 note and all the George V, GVI and QE2 specimen notes as they appeared in the 21st edition.  In theory this is all "do-able" but what a serious amount of work.  The other issue is space.  Already the book is way past the waterline as far as available space and I just don't think there is enough available space in the FOOTNOTE area accommodate even a few extra lines. Please don't take this as a criticism as I want the book to be as user roundly as possible.  The original concept of the book was to write a simple guide of basic prices but over the years both collectors and dealers have offered ideas and information I've added to the mix.  Now the book is looking more like an encyclopaedia than a price guide.  The way it's going I not going to have anything to say in the BIG book I've been working for over a decade.
I also took a slightly different take on what this collector was talking about.  I thought he was suggesting that I make NO reference at all to the coins referred to until they go up to a higher price...maybe not!
Thanks also for your kind thoughts about the court case.  Part of life's rich pageant as they say.

Cheers  Greg

[serial]

good luck greg with what ever you do

[trout]

I admire your integrity Greg by not folding to the demands of individuals with a vested interest and simply doing your research and listing the coin prices accordingly as you always have :good:
The price of any coin isn't written in Stone or any book, It is set by what the buyer will pay and what the seller is comfortable selling for .
Maybe some of the "Greif" you are getting is because some collectors use the prices in your book to value their collections for insurance purposes .

[robbiegal]

all great comments
and again with the rarities (can't help myself)
they are in a select market and the big guns determine the prices (or heritage auctions)
thus the prices realised may indicate a realised value against a true numismatic and historical value which is what one would acquire from  professional/s in the field

speaking of rarities, I would love to see a David Gee page of values - I never know what is right for bidding on them so I don't (and my coin dealer would disown me!!)

it may be a $30 catalogue but it has quite a lineage and has been a source of truth in Australia for over two decades and there is something to be said in that

Viva Maccas!!!!!

[ausproofs]

Hi Greg,

I agree with all the comments you received so far. I will add the following comments,

1. Market is determined by supply and demand. (you may only have one of a kind coin, however if there are no buyers, then that is worth nothing).
2. Financial stability of the market (Financial crisis people will be more cautious etc)
3. Your book is a price guide, not a price setter. If someone wants something, they pay what they think it is worth. If I may take an example, I have paid over 250% more than the price set by your guide and Walters blue sheet to purchase a coin. Now the bluesheet price has gone up. However that doesnt mean it will stay at that point because the next time similar coins goes on the market, someone may only pay fraction of the value. So the bottom line is price will be set by the market not by an individual or a price guide.

Investing is a risky business, you invest knowing the risks. If someone has valuable coins, they have two simple choices.

1. Keep the coin until market recover.(if they want to sell it)
2. Accept market fluctuations and sell it at the rate it is applicable to the market trends.

This is not different to people loosing millions on share market everyday.

[robbiegal]

:agreed:

[Greg McDonald]

Thanks Trout. Can always rely on you for a positive comment.  Interesting point about insurance.  Didn't think of that but you are probably right.

Good to hear from your too Robbiegal.  I was amazed you mentioned the "coins" of David Gee.  I have been collecting images of his many fakes for a few years now with the idea of doing exactly what you suggested. I am quite friendly with a number of people who knew him very well.  I had a short introduction to him at a coin and stamp exhibition many years ago.  A dealer mate and I were just walking around the stands at the race course if memory serves me right. I was introduced by my friend to a portly well dressed gent as "David."  He was an extremely courtesy man and it was until I was standing there as they chatted away that it suddenly realised who was in front of me.  Like you, Robbiegal, I think that eventually his "contribution" to Australian numismatics will be recognised in a strange sort of way.  He fooled a lot of "experts" and the faces of coin club members can only imagined when he came along for "show and Tell" at the monthly coin club meetings.  Imagine being there when he would casually pull out Sydney Mint two and five pound coins; excessively rare gold patterns; unknown kookaburra pence and, of course the totally bogus 1909 florin.  As a matter of interest a totally clueless webpage reseller has a lead trial of this coin which he is offering at a five figure sum as a genuine piece. I have emailed twice now telling him it's a David Gee fake but months later it's still on his website. This guy wouldn't know a coin from a land mine and this is pretty evident by his description  of the piece. Although it was produced in the early 1970's it is described by once being owned by the last controller of the Sydney Mint, La Souef.  That's quite a neat trick as he died in 1944!  Anyway Robbiegal, I agree that a book about Gee would be great for lots of reasons.  For one thing it would help save unsuspecting collectors from buying certain rarities that are undoubtedly fake.  There is a precedent here. In the late 19th century German forger Carl Wilhelm Becker copied countless ancient classical coins and even made up a few!  He used to melt down worn real ancient coins to match the correct assay.  Many of his coins are probably still in the cabinets of many aristocratic families.  There are a lot more in museums in Germany and elsewhere. In fact one of the museums has a whole display devoted to his like and times.  Ned Kelly syndrome likes on.

[runway]

Greg McDonald you don't have to justify yourself to anyone
Every year you issue a Pocket Guide + your other books
Congratulations to you and Jenny for all your contributions over many years
Any individual critical of you is not a true numismatic follower
Take care

[Bigfellani5]

I got my books earlier this week and it was good to see a lot of the changes. In some respects some item have not gone down far enough, other are too low, at lot are spot on. But you have to remember it is only a guide. Generally the books reflects what a lot of people are saying and the evidence supports....the market has dropped. From what I have read here Greg in general gets the support of the forum which I think is deserved. I agree on gregs stand with the collector that believes his collection should not be devalued in a book. If this was common practice across the world newspapers would only publish the highest share price achieved on a share and not the current stock market value. Kitco would only publiish the highest gold price achieved.....the list goes on.

Personally I think the value of the maccas catalogue as a resource in this great industry has increased this year because of the greater reflection of the market and the stance Greg has has taken to the detractors.

[runway]

Well said Shane

[Greg McDonald]

I concur, Runaway, great post Shane. As a dealer I am sure you often come across collectors who need to sell their collection to cover bills caused by a turndown in their real estate or stock market portfolios. While these events are accepted as part of the cycle of life, they are horrified if told their coins and banknotes have suffered the same fate.  Prices change, it a fact of life.  Think of the problems exporters and importers go through all the time. Yesterday I was doing some price comparisons between the 21st and 2nd editions and noticed the change in the relationship between the US and Australian dollar in 18 months.  In November 2013 an Australian dollar was worth US$1.06. Today it's worth $.074. A drop of 42%.  Funny how no one is complaining about me adjusting the value of bullion related coins to record this correction.  Change the value of a rare shilling by 40% and ..................!

[Robster]

Agreed.! :good:

[Bigfellani5]

I get plenty of collectors wanting to sell their collections based on their buying price 5 years ago, based on their maccas 3 years ago, based on what bob at the pub said, based on what 'someone' the whoever that is said, based on the fact they made  the effort to travel from upper bum crack. All this does not change what the market is at but a lot think so lol.