DO YOU THINK THE NEW PRICING IN THE BOOK IS MORE REALISTIC IN THE MARKETPLACE

[drakesterling]

but what I don't quite get is that I can go to maccas for raw coin prices (with all of the backdrop of the whinging) with a set reliability each year

then the slabbers buy  for way under the raw price in maccas - the so called 'inflated'

 then the same slabbing guys sell the same coin for say, 20 times maccas's valuation and nobody so much as sneezes

it is an unreal world once you cross the boarder to the slabbing game

and the real life contradiction is that once it is in an American slabb
people accept the incredibly inflated prices - without all the sooking and whinging - especially if they are selling

frankly I am sick of it all

Robbie, it is the slab collectors not the sellers who determine prices. If a PCGS-graded coin sells for $50 at auction and my retail price is $100, then I have to put my price down. In auction, it is the buyer who determines the price, and I - as a seller - have to follow the market.

And PCGS-graded coin prices are generally not "20 times" McD values anyway. Broadly, they are in line with where the catalogues should be, with some prices over and some under. It's only the big fantastic expensive sales that get the write-ups, but do your research and you'll find that PCGS-graded coins are very affordable, particularly at the more collectable levels.

Eric

[ausproofs]

Well said Eric,

RG, as a matter of fact graded coins are cheaper to buy. Just as a random pick, see what you have to pay for a 1940 Sixpence in aUNC, UNC and ChUNC in raw. Then do a comparison to see what you pay for a AU58,MS60,MS62,MS63... Most of raw coins sellers sell (private and dealers) their coins for a higher price than their slabbed counterparts.. I have being there and done that. I paid way too much for a so called UNC coin (graded by a dealer) that only graded at AU58 .. Lost $150 + ..Never to go there again. Like for like coins, slabbed coins are cheaper and you get what you pay for...

As for Greg's book, its a good source of information. I buy it every second year or so... like someone else said, its an iconic Australian publication that most use as a reference. I use it as an education source more than anything else. If I want to know the market price for a coin, Google can help you better than anything else.

Greg - Good luck with your publication and who cares what minority say... People who understand the market (specially dealers like Eric) sells coins at a real price. People buy them and your book may be on the mark with what is happening. (sorry I have not read your book yet). If you upset one or two people then thats life, there will be 100's who applauds you !

[trout]

I haven't got this years edition yet, I ordered from Downies ages ago.
I buy the book every year, Not because I need the price information I have other sources for that.
I buy it because it IS a good publication and I hand down the last years book to either my grandies that are interested in coins or some new collector that needs the information.
I noticed at the one and only coin show I have been to that the dealers seem to use the book to price coins they sell at the show.
This is probably why some of them have got the shits with your book and the more up to date and more realistic pricing Greg :ok:
Stuff Them Mate  You have my support and always will have, Keep up the good work Mate :good:

[robbiegal]

thanks Eric and Ausproofs
perhaps I am a little too single minded at times

[ausproofs]

thanks Eric and Ausproofs
perhaps I am a little too single minded at times

Cheers RG :wavemulticolor:

[drakesterling]

thanks Eric and Ausproofs
perhaps I am a little too single minded at times

We need more people with strong views on the forum.

Eric

[robbiegal]

ta
I hope that is a compliment!

[Greg McDonald]

HI everyone ,

Great lot of comments about the book and even more general comments about pricing in general.  It was especially pleasing to get positive, and realistic replies from Shane and Eric who, like me, are at the coal face of the industry.  No one likes to tell a collector - and especially an investor - that their prices have gone down.  Having said that however, you've only lost if you sell. History will tell you that quite a few millionaires were created during the 1930's - during the Great Depression. I am just as certain that astute collectors will add rare items to their collections that would have been unheard of five years ago.

Apart from the single comments from a dealer already dealt with; I've only had one other serious complaint - and that came from a collector who has a lot of very rare coins.  I can, of course sympathise with his perception that the new prices in the book has reduced his collection by a few million. He made this very clear in various comments that he is considering taking legal action as he holds me personally responsible for his loses; my book will be boycotted by dealers and my book will lose all respect within collector ranks.

Anyway this particular collector had a rather unusual solution.  In short, don't reduce the prices of rare coins (especially his I imagine).  Leave them at their 19th edition prices (where they peaked) and just wait until the market rebounds.

Apart from the single comments from a dealer; I've only had one other serious complaint - and that came from a collector who has a lot of very rare coins.  I course I can sympathise with his perception that the new prices in the book has reduced his collection by a few million. He made this very clear in various comments that he is considering taking legal action as he holds me personally responsible for his loses; my book will be boycotted by dealers and my book will lose all respect from collectors.

In putting our email correspondence on a public form is not meant to belittle or embarrass the collector in any way.  I have to try and look at every angle of this controversial decision.  Maybe some of you agree with him.  The only changes I have made to the following is to remove his name to respect his privacy.  Only the core elements of both our correspondence is included, so I apologise if the following seems a little unconnected.


 (COMMENT BY COLLECTOR)

How can the value of a high quality numismatic rarity equate what the auction estimate or for that matter, the passed in price? The value it what it has inherited over the years and can never be touched. Just because current times are reflecting a flat numismatic marketplace and high value items are being passed in due to lack of funds, this does not reflect a reduction in the true value of such items. All this means is that it is a great time to buy as bargains can be obtained, hence the lucky buyers would have made a substantial investment. If vendors decide to have their items passed in, this means that the marketplace is not up to scratch financially and such items can be put away for another time. This does not give precedence to devalue such items; if anything, leave the values as such and allow the marketplace to catch up.


MY REPLY

Let me see if I've got this right.  If a 1937 florin sold in 1940 for £1  (just supposing) and in 2005 hit $300,000, you are saying that price must never go down ever again simply because it is a rare coin.  That's what you seem to be implying?
You also talk about perception.  If I left the price of the 1937 Florin at $350,000 as you want, what perception are people going to think of my book price if one of those coins cannot find a buyer at $100,000.  It's also ridiculous to say that auction results should play no part in valuations.  This is a forum where coins or banknotes are offered to both collectors or dealers.  In today's world where you can bid on line as the item is being sold, it send a message to me when coins don't get a single bid at an estimated that is less than one third of what you want me to reinstate in the book.

When you say that I am destroying the market, you forget that I am also a dealer.  If you look through the recent Noble auction you will see that there were a fair number of high quality pre-decimal coins I sold to one of my clients over the years.  I also sold him an Adelaide Pound, several sovereigns and a number of pre-decimal proof coins.  In all, a reasonable range of coins.  None of them went even close to bringing the prices he paid.  Remember, this auction happened before the book came out so I couldn't do a last minute adjustment.  In some cases the prices paid for these dates were higher than the estimates and they still did not sell.   Let me put it this way; When was the last time you ever heard of a dealer advertise that he paid a walk in seller a WORLD RECORD PRICE for an item?  I bet the only time you have seen those words uttered is when you are reading and AUCTION report.

As a dealer who has sold millions of dollars worth of coins in a career approaching 40 years don't you think I thought long and hard before I dropped the prices like I did.  I didn't do it to destroy the industry.  I did it to preserve the long term health of the industry as I felt by continuing the price "myth" people would soon become disillusioned.

You can make all the assumptions and veiled threats that you like, but I did what I did because I thought it was the right thing. Having dealers boycott my book like you suggested would be an advertising bonanza that could double or triple my annual sales. Can you see the heading : "This is the book the dealers don't want you to read - pay the prices you should pay, not the prices they want you to."  

 Having said that I can understand that because you own a number of the items you cannot look at this issue in an objective way.  You are biased as I would be, so I think it best that we agree to disagree.

[oh my florin]

HI everyone ,

Great lot of comments about the book and even more general comments about pricing in general.  It was especially pleasing to get positive, and realistic replies from Shane and Eric who, like me, are at the coal face of the industry.  No one likes to tell a collector - and especially an investor - that their prices have gone down.  Having said that however, you've only lost if you sell. History will tell you that quite a few millionaires were created during the 1930's - during the Great Depression. I am just as certain that astute collectors will add rare items to their collections that would have been unheard of five years ago.

Apart from the single comments from a dealer already dealt with; I've only had one other serious complaint - and that came from a collector who has a lot of very rare coins.  I can, of course sympathise with his perception that the new prices in the book has reduced his collection by a few million. He made this very clear in various comments that he is considering taking legal action as he holds me personally responsible for his loses; my book will be boycotted by dealers and my book will lose all respect within collector ranks.

Anyway this particular collector had a rather unusual solution.  In short, don't reduce the prices of rare coins (especially his I imagine).  Leave them at their 19th edition prices (where they peaked) and just wait until the market rebounds.

Apart from the single comments from a dealer; I've only had one other serious complaint - and that came from a collector who has a lot of very rare coins.  I course I can sympathise with his perception that the new prices in the book has reduced his collection by a few million. He made this very clear in various comments that he is considering taking legal action as he holds me personally responsible for his loses; my book will be boycotted by dealers and my book will lose all respect from collectors.

In putting our email correspondence on a public form is not meant to belittle or embarrass the collector in any way.  I have to try and look at every angle of this controversial decision.  Maybe some of you agree with him.  The only changes I have made to the following is to remove his name to respect his privacy.  Only the core elements of both our correspondence is included, so I apologise if the following seems a little unconnected.


 (COMMENT BY COLLECTOR)

How can the value of a high quality numismatic rarity equate what the auction estimate or for that matter, the passed in price? The value it what it has inherited over the years and can never be touched. Just because current times are reflecting a flat numismatic marketplace and high value items are being passed in due to lack of funds, this does not reflect a reduction in the true value of such items. All this means is that it is a great time to buy as bargains can be obtained, hence the lucky buyers would have made a substantial investment. If vendors decide to have their items passed in, this means that the marketplace is not up to scratch financially and such items can be put away for another time. This does not give precedence to devalue such items; if anything, leave the values as such and allow the marketplace to catch up.


MY REPLY

Let me see if I've got this right.  If a 1937 florin sold in 1940 for £1  (just supposing) and in 2005 hit $300,000, you are saying that price must never go down ever again simply because it is a rare coin.  That's what you seem to be implying?
You also talk about perception.  If I left the price of the 1937 Florin at $350,000 as you want, what perception are people going to think of my book price if one of those coins cannot find a buyer at $100,000.  It's also ridiculous to say that auction results should play no part in valuations.  This is a forum where coins or banknotes are offered to both collectors or dealers.  In today's world where you can bid on line as the item is being sold, it send a message to me when coins don't get a single bid at an estimated that is less than one third of what you want me to reinstate in the book.

When you say that I am destroying the market, you forget that I am also a dealer.  If you look through the recent Noble auction you will see that there were a fair number of high quality pre-decimal coins I sold to one of my clients over the years.  I also sold him an Adelaide Pound, several sovereigns and a number of pre-decimal proof coins.  In all, a reasonable range of coins.  None of them went even close to bringing the prices he paid.  Remember, this auction happened before the book came out so I couldn't do a last minute adjustment.  In some cases the prices paid for these dates were higher than the estimates and they still did not sell.   Let me put it this way; When was the last time you ever heard of a dealer advertise that he paid a walk in seller a WORLD RECORD PRICE for an item?  I bet the only time you have seen those words uttered is when you are reading and AUCTION report.

As a dealer who has sold millions of dollars worth of coins in a career approaching 40 years don't you think I thought long and hard before I dropped the prices like I did.  I didn't do it to destroy the industry.  I did it to preserve the long term health of the industry as I felt by continuing the price "myth" people would soon become disillusioned.

You can make all the assumptions and veiled threats that you like, but I did what I did because I thought it was the right thing. Having dealers boycott my book like you suggested would be an advertising bonanza that could double or triple my annual sales. Can you see the heading : "This is the book the dealers don't want you to read - pay the prices you should pay, not the prices they want you to."  

 Having said that I can understand that because you own a number of the items you cannot look at this issue in an objective way.  You are biased as I would be, so I think it best that we agree to disagree.

I agree with you Greg. Just because people put pressure on you all you can do is do what is right and this correction of prices is both right and necessary. Anyway how can he expect you to just leave prices where they were? This guy wouldn't make it in the stock market with his attitude let alone any market.

[serial]

wow, just wow.
if I bought shares in anz and they went up to $10 a share then dropped to $8 a share I couldn't say that they are still worth $10 a share because the market is simply not willing to pay that.
likewise with coins, market value is based on supply and demand premise and at the moment the demand is low so the market value is reduced. simple.
likewise if I found a bag full of 100 mint uncirculated 1910 florins and got them all graded then the supply would increase and likewise the market value would decrease in response.
you cannot predict 100% what will happen to the market but the one thing you can be certain of is that market values will change over time, it just happens that this time many items have reduced in value and you have reported on that staking your respected reputation on the fact that you are impartial and right.
He needs to get over his on paper losses and move on because I assure you he will not succeed in a legal action on this matter but will continue to reduce his holdings engaging in one

[Greg McDonald]

wow, just wow.
if I bought shares in anz and they went up to $10 a share then dropped to $8 a share I couldn't say that they are still worth $10 a share because the market is simply not willing to pay that.
likewise with coins, market value is based on supply and demand premise and at the moment the demand is low so the market value is reduced. simple.
likewise if I found a bag full of 100 mint uncirculated 1910 florins and got them all graded then the supply would increase and likewise the market value would decrease in response.
you cannot predict 100% what will happen to the market but the one thing you can be certain of is that market values will change over time, it just happens that this time many items have reduced in value and you have reported on that staking your respected reputation on the fact that you are impartial and right.
He needs to get over his on paper losses and move on because I assure you he will not succeed in a legal action on this matter but will continue to reduce his holdings engaging in one

HI Serial and OMFlorin,

Thanks for the very quick feedback which is really appreciated.  You are right Serial,  about throwing money to the wind by having a court case.  I've just won a case that went for three years. I was award Indemnity Costs as the judge ruled it was a spiteful and totally malicious  case with no merit at all. Even thought most people only get about 60% of their costs back when they win, the judge ruled that we should get 100%.  Eventually the other side paid up $285,000. Jenny and I didn't see one cent of that money.  It all went on legal fees and we still owe them $37,000.  You cannot afford justice in this country.

Anyway I digress The above are just a few extracts that were part of five or six very lengthy emails.  In one of his last emails where he finally realised I wasn't about to change my mind. He offered the following compromise :-

Greg, do us a favour please.  These Patterns (due to their rarity and lack thereof in the marketplace) should not be involved; why not remove their reference from the next edition all together (unless you get a change of heart when the "waters calm down", and decide to place realistic values on them). It's easily justified, I own (most denominations; if a prospective buyer out there wants a piece, I can ask what I want (within realistic pre-22nd edition McDonalds values); if they refuse, I just tell them to "go and source another one". You see what I mean.


I don't think that's going to happen either.

Comments please

[serial]

how about with the patterns you don't give values but rather report auction sales history for the last couple of sales of the item.
He is right in a way saying that should someone want one then they have to offer an amount that would release it from strong hands given the populations often number in single digits on pattern coins and any value reported is not going to reflect the amount it would take to obtain one.
that way you can still offer the reader information on the coin with rocking the investors boat to much
I see that as a fair compromise
oh and sorry to hear about the court action,

[robbiegal]

I would beg to differ on that last advice serial
patterns are a part of numismatic history and maccas often references past auction prices

if Greg changes the book from being a generalised price reference
to a 'keep certain folk happy' with a bit for mr x and zip for the rest of the collectors then the book would no longer have numismatic value - it becomes no more than a token gesture in a world of litigious complainants

notes became inflated by dealers being far too greedy and the arse fell out of the game
I think that re-evaluating the coin market with caution is a sensible move and that may in fact help to sustain the market and the investment options

the humiliating fall of the Rare Coin Company - a so called numismatic investment company,  has brought a hell of a lot of coin dealers and collectors back to earth
the junket days are coming to an end and this maccas latest edition may very well reflect that

in agreement with serial - if I buy my house for $500,000 and it sells for $450,000 - then that is market on the day & I lose

[serial]

Problem is robbiegirl when you are dealing with an item were say only 2 are available on the public market and neither is for sale then its value is purely hypothetical and you can't assign it a CV. Its value is pure supply and demand the supply is so finite that the demand (offer) would have to be high enough for supply to become available.
Using your house example it is more like the Sydney harbour bridge. It can't have a value assigned as it isn't for sale and it cost the goverment $13.5 million to build but that doesn't mean its only worth 13.5 million. To obtain it I would need to create supply but offering so much money the government sold it to me. This is the case with pattern or ultra rare proof coins
Notes were made in the hundreds and thousands. That market was over inflated by artificial demand created by the likes of the rare coin company

[robbiegal]

hummm
but doesn't a past auction price act as an indicator of value ?

if a coin doesn't have an assigned value then it doesn't mean that it has no value
unless one is going for 'priceless'?

even a purchase price may not be a true indicator of value, it is simply what it sold for at that point in time

so it can all become a little philosophical

but that fact would remain that the items would exist and a value must surely be assigned, if for nothing more than insurance purposes?