Pcgs/Ngc grading is a form of gambling

[serial]

So who here agrees with this statement? Because the way I see it when people send coins to be graded the are hoping that they come back with the highest possible grade so they are worth the highest  amount. The difference between a $1000 coin and $10,000 can be 1 point. Now I am sure that a lot of  you will claim that you can tell what grade a coin will get give or take a point but it is that point that makes the world of difference and can make a grading a win or a loss

[ausproofs]

So who here agrees with this statement? Because the way I see it when people send coins to be graded the are hoping that they come back with the highest possible grade so they are worth the highest  amount. The difference between a $1000 coin and $10,000 can be 1 point. Now I am sure that a lot of  you will claim that you can tell what grade a coin will get give or take a point but it is that point that makes the world of difference and can make a grading a win or a loss

I agree with you... grading is a gamble ... sometimes the same coin would be graded differently by the same grading company. Until coin grading becomes 100% scientific system/automatic system with no human interaction, there will be some subjectivity...

I love a gamble so not planning to stop getting my coins graded anytime soon...:ok::

[trout]

When I send coins away I have a rough idea of how they will grade.
For example if I send a particular coin away and can accept a MS63 grade for it at the lowest end I will do it.
It is rare that I get a coin back below my lowest expectations and they normally come back the same or better graded.
My first few submissions were all over the place and I got some surprises and some disappointments because I was totally clueless about what I was doing, so YES that was gambling .

I like to think of it more as an "educational expense" as I am one of these creatures that really only learns from my own mistakes.

If you are buying coins raw with the view  to getting exceptional grades from a TPG over the internet without seeing them "In Hand" then YES again I would consider that gambling.

I think the secret is when buying over the net is to have a real good look at the coin when it arrives and make a decision whether or not to have it graded then.
If the coin doesn't make the cut then don't throw good money after bad by "Hoping" that it will grade well when you just know in your mind that it wont.

I think there is an element of gambling in EVERY coin purchase regardless of whether you intend to get them slabbed or not , That is one of the elements of collecting that I personally enjoy.

NO guts NO glory seems to apply on many an occasion.

That was the "Long Winded " answer to your question :ok:

Short answer is YES it is a form of gambling

[serial]

and you make good points trout that as you get more experienced then you do better but in the end the graded could have just got laid that morning and decides to add a point that leads to a windfall for you. just like a bookie at the trots has a good idea of how a horse race will end but doesn't always get it right.
still I would rather spend my money on this than booze and horses

[stevo1962]

I think that my entire collection is a gamble when you  consider
-- whims of buyers when selling (will I lose money)
-- guessing the grade a coin will achieve from an out of focus photo
-- whether or not you paid too much
-- which coins will increase in value over time
-- which coins will lose value over time
-- do I crack that roll or leave it intact

 So many things to think about

[Robster]

Good topic, will follow with interest.!! Like any gambling one should only spend as much as one can afford to lose.!! :angel:

[emu666]

My day job is to select coins to be sent for grading. The coin comes to the grade I expect around 80% to 90% of the time. It is unusual to be more than one grade out (usually this is due to a hairline scratch that I've missed).

A coin submitted to PCGS is graded independently by two graders. If their graders disagree it is sent to a third grader.  In the rare event that consensus is not reached at that stage, the coin goes through the entire procedure again. (This delays the entire submission and explains why large submissions of more than a couple of hundred coins frequently take so long to be prrocessed). To get an incorrect grade would require two of their graders to make the same mistake. It does happen, but not very often.

The chance the submitter is taking is almost entirely the chance that the submitter has incorrectly estimated the grade.

[serial]

yes emu I agree with what you are saying, you are a seasoned grader with an idea of where things will fall but you do sometimes get it wrong and the results can lead to a windfall or loss
I also bet that you would send coins with a tighter profit potential due to your confidence that they will reach a certain grade thus being profitable to grade.
You are a professional bookies in my opinion where as I am more the guy at the races trying to find a winning nag that has been missed and has high odds

[trout]

The chance the submitter is taking is almost entirely the chance that the submitter has incorrectly estimated the grade.

:i_agree:
:yeah_what_she_said:

[ausproofs]

My day job is to select coins to be sent for grading. The coin comes to the grade I expect around 80% to 90% of the time. It is unusual to be more than one grade out (usually this is due to a hairline scratch that I've missed).

A coin submitted to PCGS is graded independently by two graders. If their graders disagree it is sent to a third grader.  In the rare event that consensus is not reached at that stage, the coin goes through the entire procedure again. (This delays the entire submission and explains why large submissions of more than a couple of hundred coins frequently take so long to be prrocessed). To get an incorrect grade would require two of their graders to make the same mistake. It does happen, but not very often.

The chance the submitter is taking is almost entirely the chance that the submitter has incorrectly estimated the grade.

Thank you Emu, I didn't know two graders used in the grading process... If this is the case having inconsistent grade is eliminated to a greater level...

It becomes a gamble if you think a coin could be a boarder line finest for a coin... Ie If you were looking at a 1940 florin and your guess is it could be MS64 but may go up to a MS65.. then you have a coin that could be ~$600 vs $5000 or higher...

[markn]

yes emu I agree with what you are saying, you are a seasoned grader with an idea of where things will fall but you do sometimes get it wrong and the results can lead to a windfall or loss
I also bet that you would send coins with a tighter profit potential due to your confidence that they will reach a certain grade thus being profitable to grade.
You are a professional bookies in my opinion where as I am more the guy at the races trying to find a winning nag that has been missed and has high odds

No you're not.  You are looking for a profit in a different way.  I've seen you buy low on one forum and sell high on others.  That's what a coin dealer does every day.

[markn]

An educated gambler, in the end, has absolutely no impact on the outcome of a horse race.  Perhaps educated gamblers can be in profit with a good knowledge of how to spread their bets and long term profitability of certain bet types but regardless of how they place their bets they cannot influence which horse wins a race.  A good grader with excellent knowledge of how PCGS grades and being able to examine coins in hand has every chance of impacting the outcome of the grading of coins.  If you know what you're doing then when you send a coin to PCGS expecting a MS64 then you're about 90% certain you're going to get a MS64.  Betting on a horse is gambling, what we do is just a plain business risk.  Just being in business is a risk.  Buying inventory, selling it, and doing so with expenses being less than sales.  It's all a risk.  But a gamble?  No, not a gamble.

If you're buying coins from crappy images on the internet expecting to get high grade coins you're gambling in the same way a punter does.  Sure you might be able to minimise your losses but there's ALWAYS going to be a large degree of uncertainty regardless of the quality of images.  Because an image will NEVER convey the same information on the condition of a coin that in-hand examination can.

[serial]

so does that make me a coin dealer? because if so then anyone who has ever sold a coin on ebay for more than they paid would technically fall in that category
fact is when I get a coin I look at it, it sits on my desk for a couple of days, if I like the coin I keep it, if I don't I sell it. but I never aim to make a loss doing so. with that in mind I would not send a $10 coin of to get graded at a cost of $25 unless I think it will be worth $35+ after
any profit I make goes into another coin which is why I swap coins more than I sell as I find it is easier to swap a coin you don't want for one that you do when you are on forums like this.
so are you in the habit of selling coins for less than you paid for them Markn?

[markn]

so does that make me a coin dealer? because if so then anyone who has ever sold a coin on ebay for more than they paid would technically fall in that category
fact is when I get a coin I look at it, it sits on my desk for a couple of days, if I like the coin I keep it, if I don't I sell it. but I never aim to make a loss doing so. with that in mind I would not send a $10 coin of to get graded at a cost of $25 unless I think it will be worth $35+ after
any profit I make goes into another coin which is why I swap coins more than I sell as I find it is easier to swap a coin you don't want for one that you do when you are on forums like this.
so are you in the habit of selling coins for less than you paid for them Markn?

Of course it makes you a coin dealer.  There's no coin dealer school or coin dealer accreditation.  If you are actively trading coins (which you are) then you're a coin dealer.  Perhaps you might like to think of yourself as a "collector" but remember that almost all coin dealers (even the ones with *gasp* real shops) still collect things.

Regarding selling coins for a loss, that's a silly thing to say.  Everyone in the history of the universe who has ever had profitable business has sold things for less than they've paid for them.   Coin dealer or not.  But of course on a macro level they sell inventory for more than what they pay for it. plus expenses  Anyone who tells you different is either a liar or is sitting on a bundle of inventory that is just an unrealised loss.

[serial]

"sitting on a bundle of inventory that is just an unrealised loss"
well that's me to a tee because I liked them when I bought them but I figure stuff will go up eventually so i shouldn't lose money in the end
"If you are actively trading coins (which you are) then you're a coin dealer"
 then everyone on this site would most likely fall into this category, it is my opinion that a coin dealer is one who trades numismatic for a living something that I do not.
so yes I think of myself as a collector or has a limited amount of space to store stuff and has been told I cant get anything new till "I get rid of that crap you have in my wardrobe/kitchen/tv room/computer room/under the bed before I throw it in the bin" (quote missus)
i know i may be arguing a bit but i just disagree with your definition