George Fenton Collection on Noble

[echidna]

Fenton needs to retire his sets.

[Fr45h3R]

As to the Fenton collection I don't get why I can buy an ms65 1964 penny off eBay for $30 but an ms66 sold for close to $500 inc commissions. I also don't get why a piece of plastic turns a $20 coin into a $500 coin. Either my Renniks and maccas are bigger works of fiction than I thought or the market is just nuts.

I do get the value add from stabbing and the premium for some sort of surety of grade but think this has gone overboard sometimes.

It's a numbers game.
On the PCGS population report, there are 61 brown, 635 Red/Brown and 412 Full Red 1964 Melbourne Pennies graded. Out of 1108 coins, 10 coins, are MS66RD (highest graded)

With a roll being 60 coins, those odds are pretty much around one MS66RD per 2 rolls. By the time you buy 2 rolls, pay for the grading (say around $20? per coin in a bulk submission) you're looking at $1200 grading fees, not including the cost of the rolls... and IF you're lucky, you'll get 1 MS66RD.

And...
If the coins showing on the population report were from bulk submissions, and a minimum grade was specified, the rejected coins wouldn't show in these numbers (so they percentage could be lower again), plus if any were cherry picked from multiple rolls, the percentage drops again.

I've had many coins graded over the years, and to get something better than MS64 in copper is pretty rare unless if you have the opportunity to fish through 100's of coins.

-rob

[Bigfellani5]

I understand the numbers game. The big issue is that in the scheme of things not many Aussie coins are slabbed. There are infinitely more high grade coins go through eBay and real life auctions that are than slabbed coins. This means the slabbed population is not a realistic population. As more coins get slabbed then the price has to drop. This mean paying significantly higher for a slabbed coin over a non graded coin is dangerous and probably a poor investment as more slabs are done. This is probably part of the the reason slabbed coins are slowly dropping in value. I remember the days when I 1964 penny in ms64 was over $100....now done to $30

[serial]

bigfellani,
the trick here is to not only look at the populations of graded coins but to also fully immerse yourself in the coin market and get an understanding of what is actually out there still for sale.
This is investing 101 and I assure you that several coins changed hands last night that will never be beaten in grade or at best get beaten by 1 or 2 coins. now as the number of collectors increase on set registries so will the demand for the couple of top pop coins out there and hence the price will reflect this especially, as players in the market accumulate personal wealth.
As far as I am concerned set registries are the next generation's way of collecting and we are increasingly living in a global environment so the potential market size is increasing dramatically and supply of coins is finite

I also believe last night was a wasted opportunity to showcase the global potential of graded coin as an investment vehicle if you focus on ultra high grade rarities', wasted because of a greedy (20% buyers commission is greedy) old school auction house using antiquated auction techniques favouring local established relationships over the potential to break out on a global level by promoting the surety of graded coin and modern online auction systems.
 Numisbid is the transparent future, Noble's is the shady, over grading , secret handshake past that discourages mainstream entry into collecting/investing in numismatics

[Basil]

As more coins get slabbed then the price has to drop. This mean paying significantly higher for a slabbed coin over a non graded coin is dangerous and probably a poor investment as more slabs are done. This is probably part of the the reason slabbed coins are slowly dropping in value. I remember the days when I 1964 penny in ms64 was over $100....now done to $30

I agree 100% with your first post as well,my Brother and my Nephew are both in Real Estate and the shenanigans they get up to in Auctions to gain maximum commissions are shocking,i can't see Coin Auctions being any different.
I think the Honeymoon period with slabbing is just starting to get the wobbles as the market is flooded with Coins that aren't worth the Slabbing Fee,probably another year or two thou. before market forces and reality finally set in.

[Fr45h3R]

I understand the numbers game. The big issue is that in the scheme of things not many Aussie coins are slabbed. There are infinitely more high grade coins go through eBay and real life auctions that are than slabbed coins. This means the slabbed population is not a realistic population. As more coins get slabbed then the price has to drop. This mean paying significantly higher for a slabbed coin over a non graded coin is dangerous and probably a poor investment as more slabs are done. This is probably part of the the reason slabbed coins are slowly dropping in value. I remember the days when I 1964 penny in ms64 was over $100....now done to $30

That's right, we don't know what hasn't been graded that is in private hands or is raw or selling on eBay.
However (don't quote me) some of the Australian dealers have been grading and selling thirds party graded coins for almost 10 years (could be longer?) so I think the population report can be used as a pretty good guide for pricing and availability.
Personally, I wouldn't put coins and investment in the same sentence. I've seen the word used many times for both raw and pcgs graded coins, even with current decimal releases.

As I help out at the Petersham shows, I do have a wander around and from what I can tell, raw coins and third party graded coins are pretty much evenly priced. The prices have certainly come down in the last year or so.
I don't however see much quality raw stuff around (choice+), but that's not to say it isn't out there.

-rob

[ausproofs]

I hear both side of the argument.  If you look at 1918 Suxpence or a 1934 Shilling,  they are low mintage coins. The likelihood of multiple MS66 coins coming in to the market is very low. Also people like myself,  graded coins are the only way to go. This is due to,

1. Being time poor. (99% coins are purchased online).
2. Not having the ability to grade coins accurately.
3. Non ambiguous grade

If anyone can sell me a 100% sure GEM Raw coin at a reasonable price, I have an offer for you...

As a side note, some of the prices paid a few years ago, are very high. However I do not think the people who paid cares too much about it.. They wanted something they liked any they bought it. It is no different to getting a Ferrari for a cool $500K brand new and selling it after 5 years for $100K ... They have the means and they just do it.

[trout]

I have bought Many Many "Raw" coins that were graded at choice uncirculated or Gem uncirculated that have turned out to be "Lemons", This cannot be said for the PCGS/NGC graded coins I have purchased, There have been one or two coins that I have been disappointed with but overall my experience with buying graded coins has been very positive.
The Raw coins and the graded coins May be priced the same at some shows and online auctions But I would imagine that the graded coins are a far more saleable proposition.

[nealeffendi]

I have bought Many Many "Raw" coins that were graded at choice uncirculated or Gem uncirculated that have turned out to be "Lemons", This cannot be said for the PCGS/NGC graded coins I have purchased, There have been one or two coins that I have been disappointed with but overall my experience with buying graded coins has been very positive.
The Raw coins and the graded coins May be priced the same at some shows and online auctions But I would imagine that the graded coins are a far more saleable proposition.

I know that lemon feeling:-/. In the past year I have purchased several pricey ($500+) lemons. But then I have also picked up a few raw coins for 10-20% of their value:yahoo:  
It isn't just fleabay that sells lemons, I've seen any number of auction house coins that are claimed to be Unc to Gem that have issues (cleaning in particular) that will either badly downgrade a coin or will no grade them.

[drakesterling]

I have come to the view bidding at an auction is completely unfair. You are bidding against buyers that have negotiated a buyers premium less than the normal rate, the auction house itself that pays no commission at all. You also have the auction house not following incremental bidding and phantom bidding pushing up the price. There is absolutely no transparency what so ever. Even being in the room does not guarantee fairness. IMHO the industry needs to be cleaned up. Both buy and seller should be able to get a run sheet of each item to see that bidding was fair including incremental bidding and to know they are not competing with anyone with an advantage. Where a particular bidder has an advantage such as reduced fees that bidder should be flagged to you know you are competing with someone with and advantage. If the auction house  or any associate has any interest in an item ie owns it or wants to bid on it it should appear in the auction catalogue. If no interest is shown in the catalogue then they can not bid on it. These changes would make it a lot fairer.

As to the Fenton collection I don't get why I can buy an ms65 1964 penny off eBay for $30 but an ms66 sold for close to $500 inc commissions. I also don't get why a piece of plastic turns a $20 coin into a $500 coin. Either my Renniks and maccas are bigger works of fiction than I thought or the market is just nuts.

I do get the value add from stabbing and the premium for some sort of surety of grade but think this has gone overboard sometimes.

I wasn't aware the buyers premiums are negotiated lower. Is this true and how much do you know about it?

Eric

[trout]

As to the Fenton collection I don't get why I can buy an ms65 1964 penny off eBay for $30 but an ms66 sold for close to $500 inc commissions

There is quite a difference between a MS65 coin and a MS66 coin.
Not only in the grade but the rarity factor kicks in here, There are not too many early pre decimals that make it into the MS66 or better range probably due to improper storage and handling over the years.

as I am pretty "Up to Speed" with the values for Canberra florins I will use these as an example :ok:
A MS64 coin has a market value at the moment of between $175-$250 depending on the individual coin. PCGS population of 115
A MS65 coin is currently valued between $500-$750 depending on the individual coin as well. PCGS population of 54.
The MS66 coins rarely appear on the Market and the prices for these can vary from a mere $1600 at the latest sale of the Fenton coin to $4000 for a "Primo" example. These have a PCGS population of only 10 coins.
There is only one coin graded at MS67 at the moment and I have NO idea what that coin would achieve at auction, But I don't think it would be Cheap.

you can see by this that the rarity factor has a huge influence on the values of these coins.

[Bigfellani5]

I have come to the view bidding at an auction is completely unfair. You are bidding against buyers that have negotiated a buyers premium less than the normal rate, the auction house itself that pays no commission at all. You also have the auction house not following incremental bidding and phantom bidding pushing up the price. There is absolutely no transparency what so ever. Even being in the room does not guarantee fairness. IMHO the industry needs to be cleaned up. Both buy and seller should be able to get a run sheet of each item to see that bidding was fair including incremental bidding and to know they are not competing with anyone with an advantage. Where a particular bidder has an advantage such as reduced fees that bidder should be flagged to you know you are competing with someone with and advantage. If the auction house  or any associate has any interest in an item ie owns it or wants to bid on it it should appear in the auction catalogue. If no interest is shown in the catalogue then they can not bid on it. These changes would make it a lot fairer.

As to the Fenton collection I don't get why I can buy an ms65 1964 penny off eBay for $30 but an ms66 sold for close to $500 inc commissions. I also don't get why a piece of plastic turns a $20 coin into a $500 coin. Either my Renniks and maccas are bigger works of fiction than I thought or the market is just nuts.

I do get the value add from stabbing and the premium for some sort of surety of grade but think this has gone overboard sometimes.

I wasn't aware the buyers premiums are negotiated lower. Is this true and how much do you know about it?

Eric

It is obvious that if the auction house wins an item they are not going to pay commissions to themselves so they have a 20% advantage. I have a customer that attends a lot of auctions and has told me of such arrangements afforded to a select regular big spenders at some auctions. Thinking about it it makes sense to an auction house. If as a vendors I can negotiate a lower rate because of the amount I throw through an auction, to attract large spenders why not offer a discount. Gives the buyer an advantage that can only push up the price. If the person with the advantage looses then high commission is paid by the buyer and vendor. If they win then the vendor pays a higher commission because price is pushed up.

[trout]

It is obvious that if the auction house wins an item they are not going to pay commissions to themselves so they have a 20% advantage. I have a customer that attends a lot of auctions and has told me of such arrangements afforded to a select regular big spenders at some auctions. Thinking about it it makes sense to an auction house. If as a vendors I can negotiate a lower rate because of the amount I throw through an auction, to attract large spenders why not offer a discount. Gives the buyer an advantage that can only push up the price. If the person with the advantage looses then high commission is paid by the buyer and vendor. If they win then the vendor pays a higher commission because price is pushed up.

Has anyone asked Nobles if this actually happens at an auction and if it did would they admit to it ??
I know that the buyers fees are waived sometimes in order to secure some submissions but I haven't been aware of this other practice of the sellers fees being waived under special circumstances.

[Basil]

..... I haven't been aware of this other practice of the sellers fees being waived under special circumstances.

Common practice in the Antique Auction business here and in the UK Jim,regulars including other Dealers have arrangements with the Auction Houses as regards Fees.
I don't know if this happens with Nobles but you would assume he would look after his repeat and long term clients/dealers/collectors.

[drakesterling]

I have come to the view bidding at an auction is completely unfair. You are bidding against buyers that have negotiated a buyers premium less than the normal rate, the auction house itself that pays no commission at all. You also have the auction house not following incremental bidding and phantom bidding pushing up the price. There is absolutely no transparency what so ever. Even being in the room does not guarantee fairness. IMHO the industry needs to be cleaned up. Both buy and seller should be able to get a run sheet of each item to see that bidding was fair including incremental bidding and to know they are not competing with anyone with an advantage. Where a particular bidder has an advantage such as reduced fees that bidder should be flagged to you know you are competing with someone with and advantage. If the auction house  or any associate has any interest in an item ie owns it or wants to bid on it it should appear in the auction catalogue. If no interest is shown in the catalogue then they can not bid on it. These changes would make it a lot fairer.

As to the Fenton collection I don't get why I can buy an ms65 1964 penny off eBay for $30 but an ms66 sold for close to $500 inc commissions. I also don't get why a piece of plastic turns a $20 coin into a $500 coin. Either my Renniks and maccas are bigger works of fiction than I thought or the market is just nuts.

I do get the value add from stabbing and the premium for some sort of surety of grade but think this has gone overboard sometimes.

I wasn't aware the buyers premiums are negotiated lower. Is this true and how much do you know about it?

Eric

It is obvious that if the auction house wins an item they are not going to pay commissions to themselves so they have a 20% advantage. I have a customer that attends a lot of auctions and has told me of such arrangements afforded to a select regular big spenders at some auctions. Thinking about it it makes sense to an auction house. If as a vendors I can negotiate a lower rate because of the amount I throw through an auction, to attract large spenders why not offer a discount. Gives the buyer an advantage that can only push up the price. If the person with the advantage looses then high commission is paid by the buyer and vendor. If they win then the vendor pays a higher commission because price is pushed up.

Hmm, that does explain the uneconomical bidding activity of certain big dealers in auction. I always wondered how they'd make money buying what they buy, but if they're getting rebates, it all makes sense...

Eric