Pre decimal value - where is it heading?

ausproofs · June 26, 2016, 09:31:52 AM

Good morning Folks,

I have been observing the current market trends with Australian pre decimal values over the last 12 months or so. One of the encouraging factors as a coin collector is to see the prices going down, however on the other hand as a collector I am bit worried if prices goes down significantly, my hobby investment will be a complete waste of money and time. (Dont get me wrong, some fluctuations in the market doesnt bother me, however a coin that was sold for $14K getting sold for $6K is a worry).

Some examples of diminishing value of coins below,

1922 6D MS 65 - $14K in 2012/13 to $6K in 2015.
1963 Proof Half Penny PR67RD - $2K in 2014 to $500 in 2016
1912 6D in MS64 - $4K in 2014/15 to under $2K 2016
1919 6D in MS64 - $4K in 2013/14 to $1K in 2016

Personally I have sold some coins below market value in the recent months, good news is most went to fellow collectors... so after all its a good story..

Most of the coins above are in high grade with population chart not changing significantly in the last 3 years.. so what are your thoughts? Is this a cycle like many other things in the market, people are losing interest in coins, market is saturated or something in between ?

Let me know your thoughts?

By the way this relates to PCGS/NGC coin market as I have no idea about raw coin market trends...

Cheers.. AP

Goldseeker · June 26, 2016, 09:39:29 AM

Maybe the trend downwards is because there are now too many slabbed coins being put up for sale and not because of consumers spending habits.

One can go too the coin shows etc and one sees more and more coins that have been slabbed up for sale. Table after table of the coins.

It is getting harder for one to find a lot of raw coins form sale these days at the shows.

ausproofs · June 26, 2016, 09:46:59 AM

Thanks GS.I think that has a major part to play... however having too many lower grade or coins in plastic therotically should not push down the value of high grade coins... ie if there is only 3 coins preserved in a certain coindition (ie GEM or MS65), and there are no other coin or any other potential coins could possibly be very hard to find, supply remains the same.. only change is the demand... hence the value going down... ?

ausjack · June 26, 2016, 11:04:17 AM

I think there's quite a few things going on, lack of interest because if you look at facebook most people are into decimal now and don't seem to care much for pre, the market still hasn't recovered from the GFC, people have been really worried about their jobs and especially the last three years with the current government encouraging business to go off shore etc etc so they don't want to spend money in fear they get the sack and they prefer a roof over their head than a nice coin but who can blame them. But I have notice a major down turn and especially places like feebay and other auction sites and even the coin sites that specialise in coins.

So I don't think the amount of coins being slabbed has anything to do with it and if anything that should put the price of the top of the pop coins up showing how rare they are but for some strange reason that doesn't seem to be the case and I know what your saying AP as I bought my proofs at the wrong time and they'd be lucky if they're a quarter of what I paid for them but I hope things pick up in a few years or I'll be in the same boat and it's all been a waste of time and money even though I love collecting I would have been better off just saving my money. Anyway not much we can do, except like most things and just go along for the ride and hope things get better. But yes it's a buyers market if you can afford to sit on the coins for thirty to forty years as I can't see things getting better in the short term, well quite a few years anyway.

ausproofs · June 26, 2016, 11:11:24 AM

Good observations there AJ.. Thanks for your opinion.

ausjack · June 26, 2016, 11:18:57 AM

Not that it's worth a cracker but no wuckers mate :friends:
Things can't stay bad forever :winkextra:

Basil · June 26, 2016, 12:27:48 PM

Things will pickup(or they usually do) August/Sept./Oct. when the Tax refunds start flowing.

bellyflorin · June 26, 2016, 01:12:13 PM

The Pre decimal proofs market has dropped in value ,mainly due to 3 large collections which recently been sold off . Proofs are now picking up again in value .

If you have a Lone Ranger Top of Pops coin you will always get crazy money for it , but as soon as another coin achieves the same grade then value will plummet . I reckon this is what happened to the 1922 6d i see there's now 3 coins have achieved ms65 (top of pops)

The 1963 proof half population in 8/2014 there was 42 PR66red and 19 higher now there's 51 PR66reds, 2xPR66 + and 27 Pr67s and 1 Pr68 so there's been a significant change in the population.
If i see a 1/2d pr67red for 500 i will buy lol, the last sale I saw was around $700.

As for Facebook and them been mainly decimal collectors 95% of them are noodlers , which is fine, just another form of collecting.

There's still plenty of predecimal collectors out there lol, and values will rise again .
:wavemulticolor:

Goldseeker · June 26, 2016, 01:14:31 PM

Reading the Above comments has turned on a light in my head.

One should be looking into the future for pre decimal coins values.

Myself and many on this forum have been through two lots of coinage. Two forms of currencies where one of the currencies, the pre decimals, will become rarer as time goes on.

I have a full circulated set of pre decimals including the 1930 penny (2), 1921/22 overprint threepence (2), 1923 halfpenny (3). Although the collection is in a circulated condition, it may not be worth much now but what if I left the collection to my son, then he leaves it to his son and so on. In a several hand me downs, the coins will be scare in any grade and a ready made collection would be worth a fortune, whatever the grade.

Maybe I should get another circulated set and giver that set to my daughter for passing on but there is only one problem, she is not married and has no children so the single set/collection I have will go to my son and hopefully he will pass it on.

Just my thoughts and ramblings.

ausproofs · June 26, 2016, 01:49:49 PM

Quote from: 'bellyflorin' pid='91453' dateline='1466912533'The Pre decimal proofs market has dropped in value ,mainly due to 3 large collections which recently been sold off . Proofs are now picking up again in value .

If you have a Lone Ranger Top of Pops coin you will always get crazy money for it , but as soon as another coin achieves the same grade then value will plummet . I reckon this is what happened to the 1922 6d i see there's now 3 coins have achieved ms65 (top of pops)

The 1963 proof half population in 8/2014 there was 42 PR66red and 19 higher now there's 51 PR66reds, 2xPR66 + and 27 Pr67s and 1 Pr68 so there's been a significant change in the population.
If i see a 1/2d pr67red for 500 i will buy lol, the last sale I saw was around $700.

As for Facebook and them been mainly decimal collectors 95% of them are noodlers , which is fine, just another form of collecting.

There's still plenty of predecimal collectors out there lol, and values will rise again .
:wavemulticolor:

Hey Belly, Thanks for the comments... I know what you mean, In terms of the 1922 6D, I think only introduction on to pop chart after the first $14K sale is one MS65 (One of the other MS65's has upgraded to a MS65+) as when the referenced coin went on auction there were 3 MS65 coins in existence..... please refer to link below.

http://www.icollector.com/1922-Sixpence_i12960337

As for the 1963 Proof 1/2 D, one was sold for $460. :yahoo:

However I agree things will come back up when most of the large collections are now on the market are sold off...

Cheers for your comments.

Quote from: 'Goldseeker' pid='91455' dateline='1466912671'Reading the Above comments has turned on a light in my head.

One should be looking into the future for pre decimal coins values.

Myself and many on this forum have been through two lots of coinage. Two forms of currencies where one of the currencies, the pre decimals, will become rarer as time goes on.

I have a full circulated set of pre decimals including the 1930 penny (2), 1921/22 overprint threepence (2), 1923 halfpenny (3). Although the collection is in a circulated condition, it may not be worth much now but what if I left the collection to my son, then he leaves it to his son and so on. In a several hand me downs, the coins will be scare in any grade and a ready made collection would be worth a fortune, whatever the grade.

Maybe I should get another circulated set and giver that set to my daughter for passing on but there is only one problem, she is not married and has no children so the single set/collection I have will go to my son and hopefully he will pass it on.

Just my thoughts and ramblings.

Excellent Idea, I agree with you.. if you pass down a few sets of nice sets of coins, in a few decades it will be worth a fortune ... I have invested a fair few $ in to my hobby. As long as my kids can cash it in, I will be more than happy ..

trout · June 26, 2016, 02:45:50 PM

I have taken my collector hat off and put my investor hat on to write this :ok:
With the way that emails and social media have all but eliminated the need for letters and postage stamps, even most parcels these days have no stamps just the stick on ticket from the Post Office on them.
This has all but destroyed the stamp collecting hobby.
Maybe in a few decades our money transactions may be nearly all done electronically and coins may go down the same path as postage stamps and become almost obsolete , What will happen to coin collecting if this occurs is pretty obvious .

I am not being pessimistic here, Just being realistic :ok:
I would think that bullion coins will always be around simply because they are a way to store wealth that cannot be eaten away by bank fees , Negative interest rates are being seriously considered by many countries at the moment and some countries already have it in place.

There will always be a core of collectors like there still is with stamps but the population of coin collectors can only shrink if we end up virtually a cashless society and with a shrinking collector base the values of coins can only get less as the demand weakens.

ausproofs · June 26, 2016, 02:54:32 PM

I hear you, I think by society not using money make the demand even higher due to scarceness of the coins ? Most of the antiques are just that.. not used and not readily available anymore..

trout · June 26, 2016, 03:07:45 PM

Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='91460' dateline='1466918672'I hear you, I think by society not using money make the demand even higher due to scarceness of the coins ? Most of the antiques are just that.. not used and not readily available anymore..

That would be nice if that is the outcome But I am just telling it as I see it and I sincerely hope that I am wrong about this :ok:

Fulvio · June 26, 2016, 03:11:25 PM

Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='91434' dateline='1466899312'observing the current market trends ... as a coin collector

I think there's the problem right there. The slab game is a market and an industry, like any other market. It isn't what I'd call 'collecting' at all, and it has little to do with the coins. Rather it is subject to all the same forces as any other market. You may as well be trading Bitcoins or Pounds or Gold... its all about how much you can make flipping an investment. That's not collecting in my book.

And this is a big part of why I dislike slabs. I'd rather play in an area where I can concern myself with the object of my desires, and not the box its in or population reports. If I pull a mule out of the pond, or a 1930 penny out of a deceased estate bulk lot, THAT's collecting. When I go to feepay and buy a hunk of plastic, that's pure speculation, or, if I'm kidding myself, an 'investment'.

Markets gunna do what markets do. They go up, they go down, they spike, they crash. And usually it has nothing to do with fundamentals. So we need to understand what type of game it is, and play it accordingly.

ausproofs · June 26, 2016, 03:28:02 PM

Sorry I disagree Fulvio, I am a collector and enjoy collecting coins. I buy graded coins because I can not grade coins at all and the few times I did that I failed miserably... if I was a pure investor, I would have bought a property or two or even some shares... I struggle to sell my coins even at a very high profit because I love my collection. In saying that I dont want to wast my money on something. I think as a parent that is a complete irresponsible management of money...

I do agree PCGS is a business and like most things come and go. However if the coin inside the plastic is in good quality, then thats what I have paid money for ... If the value of coins have gone up and PCGS has disappeared, I still have a good coin..