CV of Australian Pre Decimal coins - Going down ?

trout · January 10, 2015, 11:07:19 PM

The most I have ever spent on a coin is $1100 for my Ducat and I have NO regrets at all about that purchase .
I really don't care about its market value one iota because it will never be for sale while I live :ok:
I often get asked what my collections are worth and I simply answer that I would not have a Bloody clue.
For me its ALL about the coins NOT their value and like Eric said I may if I am lucky enough, be able to add some "Wish List" coins to my collections while the prices are depressed :good:
ALL is GOOD :wavemulticolor:

ausproofs · January 11, 2015, 12:13:55 AM

Quote from: 'trout' pid='65142' dateline='1420893439'The most I have ever spent on a coin is $1100 for my Ducat and I have NO regrets at all about that purchase .
I really don't care about its market value one iota because it will never be for sale while I live :ok:
I often get asked what my collections are worth and I simply answer that I would not have a Bloody clue.
For me its ALL about the coins NOT their value and like Eric said I may if I am lucky enough, be able to add some "Wish List" coins to my collections while the prices are depressed :good:
ALL is GOOD :wavemulticolor:

Well said Trout, if you are happy with what you have thats the most important thing.

For me it is bit different. I love my coins, however I do consider them to be a bit of an investment. I am sure there are others who feels the same way. If prices do not bounce back in the short term, its not the end of the world for me... I will then complete my collection. Oneday my kids or grandkids will be the winners then... :wavemulticolor:

markn · January 11, 2015, 07:10:42 AM

Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='65136' dateline='1420888010'"We have been lucky to sell this set twice (not the same coins however) in our history,"

Well there's a bit of slippery English for you that I mis-read. "Same set, oh but different coins". Not the same set at all.

robbiegal · January 11, 2015, 11:17:41 AM

Yes
a little along the lines of the used car salesman .... only driven by a little old lady ... to the caryard - not sure who drove it before that

nealeffendi · January 11, 2015, 02:15:34 PM

Outside of the banknotes (off by 80-90%) the only coins to suffer similar drops are those conditional rarity Top of the Pop coins that sold a few years ago and now have a couple more graded the same or higher.
I have a MS65 slabbed sixpence that is only one grade below the top coin and when I purchased it (April '14) there were 2 coins in the top grade and it only cost me $145, now there are 4 at MS66. Less than 2 years ago there was only a single MS66 and it sold at auction for 7 grand. At this rate there will be a dozen in MS66 (maybe 66+) in a few years and they will sell for under $500. Mine might drop to $100 so I'm losing far less than if I had tried to buy the very best. Disproves the adage about buying the very best; I just buy what I want and if it drops a bit I'll just buy some more (would love a MS66 to go with the MS65).

stevo1962 · January 11, 2015, 02:26:51 PM

I think the only way that I'll be able to stay ahead of the game is to continue to buy raw overseas predecimal bargains
and sending them off to get slabbed in the hope of a reasonable gain in value.Seems to be working so far

kchan1111 · January 11, 2015, 03:11:36 PM

Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='65156' dateline='1420947934'Outside of the banknotes (off by 80-90%) the only coins to suffer similar drops are those conditional rarity Top of the Pop coins that sold a few years ago and now have a couple more graded the same or higher.
I have a MS65 slabbed sixpence that is only one grade below the top coin and when I purchased it (April '14) there were 2 coins in the top grade and it only cost me $145, now there are 4 at MS66. Less than 2 years ago there was only a single MS66 and it sold at auction for 7 grand. At this rate there will be a dozen in MS66 (maybe 66+) in a few years and they will sell for under $500. Mine might drop to $100 so I'm losing far less than if I had tried to buy the very best. Disproves the adage about buying the very best; I just buy what I want and if it drops a bit I'll just buy some more (would love a MS66 to go with the MS65).

Hi nealeffendi, what date is your sixpence?

ausproofs · January 11, 2015, 03:17:06 PM

Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='65156' dateline='1420947934'Outside of the banknotes (off by 80-90%) the only coins to suffer similar drops are those conditional rarity Top of the Pop coins that sold a few years ago and now have a couple more graded the same or higher.
I have a MS65 slabbed sixpence that is only one grade below the top coin and when I purchased it (April '14) there were 2 coins in the top grade and it only cost me $145, now there are 4 at MS66. Less than 2 years ago there was only a single MS66 and it sold at auction for 7 grand. At this rate there will be a dozen in MS66 (maybe 66+) in a few years and they will sell for under $500. Mine might drop to $100 so I'm losing far less than if I had tried to buy the very best. Disproves the adage about buying the very best; I just buy what I want and if it drops a bit I'll just buy some more (would love a MS66 to go with the MS65).

Very good point. I agree with you 100%... I got sucked in to paying 000's or 00's more for TOP coins a few times before. However I learnt very quickly. .. unless the coin on offer is extremely rare and there will be no chance of a nother coming up, I am happy with second best coin that would hold its value... or drop a few $$ in the long run ....

Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='65158' dateline='1420948611'I think the only way that I'll be able to stay ahead of the game is to continue to buy raw overseas predecimal bargains
and sending them off to get slabbed in the hope of a reasonable gain in value.Seems to be working so far

I agree, my issue is I only pick up rubbish when I try to do that.. :dodgy:

markn · January 11, 2015, 03:21:36 PM

Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='65162' dateline='1420951626'
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='65156' dateline='1420947934'Outside of the banknotes (off by 80-90%) the only coins to suffer similar drops are those conditional rarity Top of the Pop coins that sold a few years ago and now have a couple more graded the same or higher.
I have a MS65 slabbed sixpence that is only one grade below the top coin and when I purchased it (April '14) there were 2 coins in the top grade and it only cost me $145, now there are 4 at MS66. Less than 2 years ago there was only a single MS66 and it sold at auction for 7 grand. At this rate there will be a dozen in MS66 (maybe 66+) in a few years and they will sell for under $500. Mine might drop to $100 so I'm losing far less than if I had tried to buy the very best. Disproves the adage about buying the very best; I just buy what I want and if it drops a bit I'll just buy some more (would love a MS66 to go with the MS65).

Very good point. I agree with you 100%... I got sucked in to paying 000's or 00's more for TOP coins a few times before. However I learnt very quickly. .. unless the coin on offer is extremely rare and there will be no chance of a nother coming up, I am happy with second best coin that would hold its value... or drop a few $$ in the long run ....

Nothing wrong with buying conditional rarities in a mature market. However, the Australian slabbed coin market is only entering pubescence IMHO and if you buy conditional rarities now expecting them to remain so long term then you are likely to be disappointed. I think Neal's approach (buy one grade below the top) is a good one for building up a great collection without spending the earth.

nealeffendi · January 11, 2015, 03:40:56 PM

1951pl sixpence. There are now 7 at MS65 and 4 at MS66. In July 2013 the then only MS66 sold for $7250 (plus $1087.50 fees) at Pacific Rim. When I got my MS65 in April 2014 there were 2 at MS66. So mine was still one of the best 10 and only cost $138.57 (including postage) and demonstrates that it only takes a few high grades to drop the price 95-98% (there have been at least 2 others at MS65 available for around $300 this past year including from DrakeSterling).
The deep pockets of Timbertop and Fenton can get into the bidding wars and pay 10X what we little guys can. Getting one grade below means we will never unseat them but enables us to build up nice collections

ausproofs · January 11, 2015, 03:47:53 PM

:i_agree: Mark, I think a lot of collectors are slowly understanding the best way to build a collection.... I personally think another 2 years or so will bring out most of the good raw coins out of hiding.

wwwww · January 14, 2015, 09:17:22 AM

I've noticed a downtrend over the past year too. I don't consider it a bad thing however, markets go up and down, it's normal in transparent/healthy markets as supply and demand shifts.

In the past catalogue prices almost always went up, this was unrealistic and contributed to major crashes (e.g. the investor targeted material crash of 2010) as when values are artificially inflated, eventually market forces require a correction, usually in the form of a crash.

serial · January 14, 2015, 11:17:14 AM

I see the markets still in knee jerk stage with plenty of room to grow.
the GFC and bad publicity like the Rare coin company fiasco has given coin collecting/investing a bad name
however I see the likes of PCGS as a saviour. they make it easier for people to enter the market and create competition with their set registries.
my generation is all about "competing" and trying to collect a set and move up the set registry is something that they go for. given a few more years of earning money and getting sick of the jet skies, v8 commodores and motorbikes and they will be looking for a sedate hobby and will have the cash to enter it.
this is what the market needs, fresh money as, with respect, most of the current top end collectors are in their twilight years and dropping off the perch
so start those registries even if you don't intend to finish them. you give other people someone to over take and a sense of competition that drives them to buy more coins

coxspau · January 14, 2015, 11:18:55 AM

This is all very interesting and timely given my transition into higher grade predecimals.

Due to limited resources, I'm still looking to follow the primary principal of buying the best coin you can afford.

Due to my new mantra, I am now looking to purchase & collect with one eye on the investment, whether it be short or long term.

Am I right to assume that the raw coins are not slabbed coins? I have not yet aligned with slabbing or the MS grading process, however I feel that by delaying getting on board, I'm being left behind.

Are unslabbed, un-MS graded coins at a disadvantage in terms of investment or collectability?

stevo1962 · January 14, 2015, 11:38:38 AM

Quote from: 'coxspau' pid='65268' dateline='1421196535'This is all very interesting and timely given my transition into higher grade predecimals.

Due to limited resources, I'm still looking to follow the primary principal of buying the best coin you can afford.

Due to my new mantra, I am now looking to purchase & collect with one eye on the investment, whether it be short or long term.

Am I right to assume that the raw coins are not slabbed coins? I have not yet aligned with slabbing or the MS grading process, however I feel that by delaying getting on board, I'm being left behind.

Are unslabbed, un-MS graded coins at a disadvantage in terms of investment or collectability?

You haven't been left behind because there are still plenty of bargains out there and if you buy raw(unslabbed) coins and and then get them slabbed yourself like I have been doing recently then you can make some serious value gains.You just need to be able to grade coins yourself and sometimes take a gamble on that out of focus photo and the more practice you have the better you'll get especially because it's your own money at risk