$1 Mule rarity/scarcity questions

[stevo1962]

Check out the post by erkle- 5th post from the bottom.This may or may not be true

   http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=127156&whichpage=2

[emu666]

Check out the post by erkle- 5th post from the bottom.This may or may not be true

   http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=127156&whichpage=2

I suspect not.
I would trust very little from that forum.

[stevo1962]

Check out the post by erkle- 5th post from the bottom.This may or may not be true

   http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=127156&whichpage=2

I suspect not.
I would trust very little from that forum.

I also suspect it's not true but more likely a few tins of $1 coins with a few mules on  top at best

[emu666]

Check out the post by erkle- 5th post from the bottom.This may or may not be true

   http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=127156&whichpage=2

I suspect not.
I would trust very little from that forum.

I also suspect it's not true but more likely a few tins of $1 coins with a few mules on  top at best

OK say there were 200 coins per tin; then we are talking 600 mules. If we got by my hit rate; then total number of coins needed to have gone through would be roughly 8 million which is an unbelievable number of dollar coins to go through a shop. On the other hand, I recall that for a while Ken Skinner was counting the year 2000 $1 coins while we were mule hunting. From memory roughly 1 in 250 were mules. To fill 3 tins with 2000 dated dollar coins would then have required the store to have gone through 8 million / 250; i.e 32000 coins - roughly 100 per day for a year.

Steve, your theory looks good.

[stevo1962]

[/quote]

OK say there were 200 coins per tin; then we are talking 600 mules. If we got by my hit rate; then total number of coins needed to have gone through would be roughly 8 million which is an unbelievable number of dollar coins to go through a shop. On the other hand, I recall that for a while Ken Skinner was counting the year 2000 $1 coins while we were mule hunting. From memory roughly 1 in 250 were mules. To fill 3 tins with 2000 dated dollar coins would then have required the store to have gone through 8 million / 250; i.e 32000 coins - roughly 100 per day for a year.

Steve, your theory looks good.
[/quote]

Yes putting it that way it does seem ridiculous to think that the 3 tin story could be true.With that being said it is unlikely that we will see a hoard being dumped onto the market as it would be virtually impossible for anyone to noodle that many mules from one spot

[Coins from Vending]

fascinating read BTW, I got 1 so if anyone doing a  tally on them don't forget mine...........

[Guest1595]

hi guys, out of interest, does anyone know how many $1 coins a full tote carries ? And does anyone know the approx size of one of those tote ?

[nealeffendi]

Check out the post by erkle- 5th post from the bottom.This may or may not be true

   http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=127156&whichpage=2

That was the 3 jars that I recalled.
So when does this shopkeeper retire and cash in his investment?

[purplepennyhunter]

Here's an MS67
ebay link
......................................maybe......................(but who knows)

[nealeffendi]

OK say there were 200 coins per tin; then we are talking 600 mules. If we got by my hit rate; then total number of coins needed to have gone through would be roughly 8 million which is an unbelievable number of dollar coins to go through a shop. On the other hand, I recall that for a while Ken Skinner was counting the year 2000 $1 coins while we were mule hunting. From memory roughly 1 in 250 were mules. To fill 3 tins with 2000 dated dollar coins would then have required the store to have gone through 8 million / 250; i.e 32000 coins - roughly 100 per day for a year.

Steve, your theory looks good.
[/quote]

Yes putting it that way it does seem ridiculous to think that the 3 tin story could be true.With that being said it is unlikely that we will see a hoard being dumped onto the market as it would be virtually impossible for anyone to noodle that many mules from one spot
[/quote]

But if Ken Skinner and Peter were hunting in 2004 and CAB reported the variety in 2003 then whoever started hunting prior to the CAB article was closest to the release point and may have been hitting a vein rich in year 2000 coins and with a higher percentage of mules. I'm assuming that at least one person was hunting for mules and word got out to CAB. If they started hunting early then the dispersal would have been only moderate from the immediate area. Someone has just posted that a roll that was searched back then had 4 mules so that implies that Ken Skinners 1 in 250 was well away from the mother lode.

[Unicorn]

:laugh2: PPH ..... I don't know about Armaguard ...... more Armandaleg ...... eeek

[robbiegal]

I think that Peter checked a few million dollar coins, not a few million dollar coins dated for that particular year. Either way it is a huge sample size and he deserves every mule he found.
[/quote]

oh der .... makes clear sense now and I didn't think of that in the wee hours of the morn!! ha ha
yeah - so it's a randomised sample of 2.3 million $1 coins on a given year, in a given state, from any year?
 
I guess that I assumed that the 2.3 million that were checked were 1. year 2000 2. MOR's rather than them being from any $1 coins from various years as your chances of selecting a mule from any year other than a 2000 MOR is of course = zero

but if you were to try to ascertain the likelihood of finding a 2000 MOR mule from the general circulating coins in Oz - then yes, you have another probability ratio to work out
so all in all, we could end up with 2 estimates - one from the  $1 MOR's year 2000 mintage only and then one from the circulation pool of all $1 in Oz ( I do believe that Trout is after the former and general collectors are after the latter)
 
ps guys my dealer reckons the $1 'mule' from 2000 showed up in fair numbers in mid Nth Qld so it wasn't just Perth that got all the bags of goodies! go Queensland!!!

[Fulvio]

To fill 3 tins with 2000 dated dollar coins would then have required the store to have gone through 8 million / 250; i.e 32000 coins - roughly 100 per day for a year.

Steve, your theory looks good.

Not a bad trick, given the total mintage was 7,592,000! Either the story is fabricated, or the tins were. Probably the latter. My dad had a tin in the darkroom of round 50¢ he started filling as soon as they switched to CuNi. He doesn't remember how many he ended up with, but I reckon it was about 5 litres in volume, and pretty bluddy heavy for a kid to pick up.

I reckon the bloke found a couple of 'em, and used them to punk him.

circulation pool of all $1 in Oz

While I don't keep stats, I do keep all 2000's I find. They're not that common, as you would expect from the low mintage. And I've only had one mule. 1:250 may have been a reasonable rate in Perth in 2004, but you can add a few zeroes for the whole of Oz now.

Here's an MS67
ebay link
......................................maybe......................(but who knows)

WTF? The guy wants $80 each for a coin with an 8m mintage? I don't care if they're MS-anything... they'd need to be at least specimens to be worth that. Maybe if the roll was intact, you might take a punt on it containing a mule, but this auction is BS.

[emu666]

OK say there were 200 coins per tin; then we are talking 600 mules. If we got by my hit rate; then total number of coins needed to have gone through would be roughly 8 million which is an unbelievable number of dollar coins to go through a shop. On the other hand, I recall that for a while Ken Skinner was counting the year 2000 $1 coins while we were mule hunting. From memory roughly 1 in 250 were mules. To fill 3 tins with 2000 dated dollar coins would then have required the store to have gone through 8 million / 250; i.e 32000 coins - roughly 100 per day for a year.

Steve, your theory looks good.

Yes putting it that way it does seem ridiculous to think that the 3 tin story could be true.With that being said it is unlikely that we will see a hoard being dumped onto the market as it would be virtually impossible for anyone to noodle that many mules from one spot
[/quote]

But if Ken Skinner and Peter were hunting in 2004 and CAB reported the variety in 2003 then whoever started hunting prior to the CAB article was closest to the release point and may have been hitting a vein rich in year 2000 coins and with a higher percentage of mules. I'm assuming that at least one person was hunting for mules and word got out to CAB. If they started hunting early then the dispersal would have been only moderate from the immediate area. Someone has just posted that a roll that was searched back then had 4 mules so that implies that Ken Skinners 1 in 250 was well away from the mother lode.
[/quote]


Dear Neale,
You forgot to mention the time machine required.
1 in 250 was in 2004 AD - this includes ALL batches on 2000 dated dollars sent from RAM to Perth
4  coins in a roll was in 2000 AD - this can only include THE BATCH that contains the 2000 $1 10c mules

Check out the post by erkle- 5th post from the bottom.This may or may not be true

   http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=127156&whichpage=2

That was the 3 jars that I recalled.
So when does this shopkeeper retire and cash in his investment?

Been there , done that. Look on previous page.


I gather all this is just payback for April 1st otherwise you are now just being ridiculous.

[Ozcoins]

I agree with Fulvio on that point....
2000 $1 coins seem to be not very common at all.
While I do not keep all of them. I do keep above average ones.