Australian mint sets change in value over time

dreamcatcher · July 17, 2013, 12:06:44 PM

Sorry Pedro yes I meant 1966-2010.

For 1966 I only counted the cards which as you know are more common and consistently priced. For 1969 I included blue and red folders together in the data.

My data is price realised for the sets and not postage.

I'm impressed with the comprehensiveness of your data.

Pedro · July 17, 2013, 02:34:50 PM

OK, here we go with an amended table including an aggregate of sale prices for the years 1966 to 2010 inclusive. The revised document has been put together quickly so please advise if I have messed up.

As dreamcatcher has been working without postage included the aggregate has been adjusted for an approximate allowance to remove postage from the equation - as can be seen $3.50 for 2011 and $3.75 for 2012 and 2013. These amounts can be amended if it is felt that these amounts are suspect.

I have averaged across 1969 and 1984 and 1985 (the latter 2 covering the clear and yellow plastic).

The double bar sets of 1979 and 1980 have been excluded as have the 1994 wide date sets (these 3 are the higher value sets for the respective years but have been sold in significantly lower volumes. However, the wide date sets do seem to have come out of the woodwork so far this year!). These can be averaged in if required.

[attachment=2145]

Have fun.

Pedro

Unicorn · July 17, 2013, 02:44:13 PM

Thats great Pedro ....... gee the 72-74 have remained solid. The 2000 losing a lot of appeal.

(Edit: put the i in solid ..... nice graph below dreamcatcher)

dreamcatcher · July 18, 2013, 08:07:42 AM

Thanks very much Pedro.

I combined our aggregated data for the years 2007-2013 and drew up a graph. I used my data for 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 and your data for 2011, 2012, and 2013.

We both have data for 2011 and my total is $1397 and yours is $1410 (for sets 1966-2007) . That's very close! While we both had different methodologies in obtaining our data I think for this purpose it's ok to combine them. The graph is attached...

Pretty interesting stuff I think. I am surprised at how much they've lost value. Anyway I still think a top quality mint set for every year is a must have for the Aussie decimal collector!!

Pedro · July 18, 2013, 12:09:40 PM

OK, looks like the estimate for postage was reasonable since our numbers are pretty close dreamcatcher - at least for 2011.

There seems to be an inkling of an upturn in some mint set prices (eg 1992, 1995) over the past few weeks. Will be interesting to see if that is sustained and or spreads. May be just a factor of what looks like a bit of a slowdown in the number of sets being put up for sale generally and an increased proportion of sets being offered at higher BIN prices.

Pedro

dreamcatcher · July 18, 2013, 01:29:36 PM

Yeah I think your postage estimate was reasonable.

How did you get your data Pedro? Do you have a way of automatically downloading it from ebay or do you manually follow all completed listings?

Pedro · July 18, 2013, 02:33:39 PM

I wish it were automated but no, its a manual data extraction process.

Pedro

dreamcatcher · July 18, 2013, 03:10:17 PM

That is a huge effort to record all those sets like you do. Can we revisit this next year (if not before of course) and update the data!?

Pedro · July 18, 2013, 07:12:11 PM

Should be possible dreamcatcher (unless I get bored in the meantime!

)

Pedro

MobOfRoos · July 21, 2013, 09:50:41 AM

So we've established that Mint sets have been falling in value since 2007.
Banknotes have also been falling in value as evidenced by the latest Maccas.
There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that the 1930 penny and 1923 half pennies have also been falling in value.

So what are peoples theories about why this is happening?

Is it due the lingering effects of the GFC?
Is it because more people are on line these days so they are selling things they wouldn't normally sell? (ie the eBay phenomena?)
Is it because the Baby Boomers are starting to pass away and their collections are appearing on the market.
Or is this just a cyclical downturn in numismatics?

stevo1962 · July 21, 2013, 09:58:47 AM

I have noticed a definite drop in prices achieved for 1923 halfpennies over the last couple of years and I think its cyclical a bit like housing prices.I don't think prices can continue to go down and I would hope there is a point where they will bottom out.Just my opinion

trout · July 21, 2013, 10:20:28 AM

QuoteIs it because the Baby Boomers are starting to pass away and their collections are appearing on the market.

I'm a "Baby Boomer" and I ain't quite dead yet, Anyway my little collection wouldn't affect prices in the least.

I do believe that it is a combination of all those things tho :ok:

robbiegal · July 21, 2013, 11:02:01 AM

I agree with MOR
1. e-bay - the supply is killing all the collectable markets - a lot of antique toys that use to sell for thousands now only sell for a few hundred as people list up their finding from grandad's garage
2. the collectors from the 1960's and 1970's are all starting to kick the bucket , so for example, I reckon a lot of the 1970 captain cooks are now showing up in the market place at a fast rate - the owners have died - the collection is on the market place. I see the lots coming into the local coin show & lately they have all been deceased lots or grannie is going' to the home' and the family are cleaning out her 'junk' as one woman called her grandmothers' coin collection
3. over inflation on the top end coins, is catching up on the market as well, just the same as the housing market

trout · July 21, 2013, 11:15:02 AM

I don't think that the fall in prices are "Across the board" tho :ok:
There are some coins that keep increasing in value/cost.
I would imagine that the proliferation of fake/counterfeit coins has shaken investor confidence quite a lot and that is why the slabbed coins seem to be doing quite well.
The upside of all this is that we as collectors get to grab some bargains every now and then from the unslabbed/raw coins on offer.:wavemulticolor:

dreamcatcher · July 23, 2013, 06:34:29 AM

I remember was I was a kid in the late 80s stamp collecting was BIG. People paid $s for a single stamp. Now you can buy a box full of albums of the same stamps for almost nothing.

While coins have been a much better investment than stamps I think there are two main reasons for the decline...

1. The sheer number of "collectable" coins is verging on the rediculous. A 1923 half penny or 1925 penny used to be a focus of attention. Now they're just one of a million different available coins. Even coin collectors don't necessarily want them, there are other coins to collect including about 50 highly priced new releases this year!

2. There is just so many things to keep people entertained these days. Mobile phones, the internet, gadgets, computer games, and hobbies are being promoted everywhere. It used to be coins, stamps, figurines, a book or a ball. That was it.