I am a nit picking pedant

[markn]

This story caught my eye this morning:

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/2014/01/18/10/08/couple-has-four-children-born-on-same-day

The odds quoted are wrong because the set of twins was born in a leap year.  So the odds are 1 in (365*366) rather than 1 in (365*365) which is what is quoted.  Sure 1 in 133590 is not much less likely than 1 in 133225 but it'd be nice if someone in journalism remembered their year 9 maths.

[Unicorn]

:laugh2: ...... so do you reckon that one of the parents has a birthday around early April?

[markn]

A very happy April Fools day every year perhaps?

[Unicorn]

The odds would also have to be based on the assumption that the couple 'tried' to conceive every day of the year leading up to conception, else only when they did try would have to be a part of the probability calculation, along with probabilities of various gestation periods.

Quick ..... pass the can of worms ..... ps: Can I join the pedant's club.

A very happy April Fools day every year perhaps?

[Fulvio]

Quick ..... pass the can of worms .....

Yeah, the odds aren't nearly as long as they make them out to be. The night they did the deed is not random, and the randomness in gestation periods are nowhere near 1:365.

Still a fluke, but not to the degree they claim in the article.

[Goldseeker]

Who cares.   They had them.   Good luck to them.

[Unicorn]

Good luck to them.

True Goldie, my sister in law had her twins on her birthday. Being in labour (28 hours) is probably not a nice way to spend part of your birthday, but I think she was happy with the result. (They're both well into their 20's now).