worth reading ....
https://www.ngccoin.com/news/article/5740/?utm_source=marketo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=17-NG-2181-NGCResearchPCGSPopulationsAndPrices&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTVdVNU1XTXhNemt6WWpZMiIsInQiOiJESkgwcE1QTXlPTWZPS1NBM0hpcWNhbGxsYzVzV2llNHJxNTRlVjFPQys3XC9VWGJ4Uk0rb0l5eHp3RTYyRExIdEprT2FSS2t4djUzcmFcL29qNUllbDNrV1c1aGpia1daR1BwZ29tMnFlaTdqa1BJXC9ZakFRUWJqREs4T3VvTndSZSJ9
From someone who's not completely over the top of the TPG market, the first impression I get from the article is that some doubt is being cast upon PCGS's grading standards, although, no evidence was put forward for this, apart from highlighting a reasonably sudden increase in the population of top grades. To run with the sentiment being put forward, IMO you would need to believe the vast majority of coins are registered with PCGS, and that all existing coins of top grade were submitted early on in the companies history.
Is it not entirely possible that as the popularity and dominance of PCGS emerged in the TPG marketplace, more and more raw coins that had been previously locked away in unknown collections made their way to the grading table?
I think the Australian market at the moment may be a prime example of this. Just my Two Bobs worth. :scratch_one-s_head:
An interesting post Duggee.
Could it not be explained by purely demand vs supply?
For example, people have come to realise that having a coin professionally graded assists both the buyer and the seller of coins in the determination of the grade of the coins. This could have the impact reflected in the graphs shown where more people purely had the coin sitting in their collection graded whereas prior to that it may have just been housed in a 2x2.
Accordingly, those same people may have thought perhaps that they would sell there coin in hope of obtaining one of a higher grade. This would increase supply of perhaps the lower grades, thus decreasing the sale price / value.
On a similar note, some holders of NGC coins may have cracked their slabs and had the coin regraded by PCGS (due to perhaps the rising market attention for PCGS coins), that too increasing the population of those coins. (A simple shift in population from NGC to PCGS).
Anyhow, it's still an interesting blog to read, however the accountant in me says that if you look hard enough you can always find statistics to support any particular opinion.
Again, regardless, it sure is an interesting read.
Quote from: 'duggee27' pid='104081' dateline='1484705792'worth reading ....
https://www.ngccoin.com/news/article/5740/?utm_source=marketo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=17-NG-2181-NGCResearchPCGSPopulationsAndPrices&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTVdVNU1XTXhNemt6WWpZMiIsInQiOiJESkgwcE1QTXlPTWZPS1NBM0hpcWNhbGxsYzVzV2llNHJxNTRlVjFPQys3XC9VWGJ4Uk0rb0l5eHp3RTYyRExIdEprT2FSS2t4djUzcmFcL29qNUllbDNrV1c1aGpia1daR1BwZ29tMnFlaTdqa1BJXC9ZakFRUWJqREs4T3VvTndSZSJ9
I've noticed that the number of high end pre decimals has jumped and that the prices have fallen. Three years back I had the only MS64+ '54 Comm florin with about 15 higher at MS65. Now there are 5 at 64+, 26 at 65 and 4 at 66, I only paid $283 as BIN on my MS65 and my 64+ has much greater eye appeal. How did those 4 that made 66 all turn up in the past 3 years?
So the chairman of NGC says that PCGS's standards are slipping. What a surprise.
To be fair, there has been an explosion of decimal coins in higher grades, but I think it has more to do with the volume of coins that has been graded.
I've also noticed that most of the examples Mr Salzberg gives in his report are modern coins, too.
Maybe the populations have increased so much because everyone is sending their coins to PCGS! haha
Eric
That IS a good article and it does bring up some very valid points.
If you notice at the end of the article Mark Salzberg has this to say.
QuoteAs a collector myself, there are some questions I always ask before making any purchase:
Has the graded coin population changed in the last six months, year, two years or five years?
If it has, can the change be explained by the discovery of a hoard or an increase in submissions?
How has the price changed in the last six months, year, two year or five years?
What is the price difference between this grade and a grade point lower?
Is this coin a good value?
I encourage everyone to ask these same questions. An informed buyer is a smart buyer. And remember: buy the coin, not the holder.
Up until as recently as 3-4 years ago you could count the number of PCGS MS70 coins on your fingers.
Yes the population figures have increased But on an average the grades have increased at a Far grater rate especially the MS70 grades within the Decimal populations.
This cannot be explained away by simply saying that there are more coins being graded because prior to 3-4 years ago there were NO MS70 grades in certain coins even though there were healthy populations of these coins graded at that time.
If that same number of coins was to be submitted for grading Now then all of a sudden they would become not an MS69, Magically they would be transformed into a MS70 coin.:angel:
Many of the people that are "Poo Pooing" the idea that gradeflation is a real problem with PCGS have a vested and financial interest in dismissing this problem.
This gradeflation is evidenced by the popularity of the older PCGS slabs because when cracked out and resubmitted they usually have a very good chance of getting a better grade than they were graded at originally, Have a think about that for a spell and ask yourself "Why is this So".
With a Large majority of collectors now not Bothering to learn how to grade and relying heavily on the TPG's to do that for them it is even more important that the TPG's maintain their grading standards and NOT relax them by overgrading and "Market" grading coins.
At the end of the day learning to grade with a reasonable degree of accuracy if you want to collect the top of the range coins is still as vitally important as it ever was and remember:
Buy the coin NOT the SlabRegardless of which TPG has graded the coin :ok:
New graders so probably new tolerances in grading scores ,so higher grades are probably due to a combination
of that and a greater volume of coins being graded because of the increased acceptance from collectors and some dealers
are cashing in.Well probably one in particular.It's just progress for TPG coins in Australia
Does that cover APCGS :mocking: Sorry I really can't help myself sometimes :angel:
:scratch_one-s_head: and who could that dealer be Stevo, don't worry I think we all know mate :winkextra:
The article would have been a little more informative if the NGC populations were graphed along side the PCGS ones, even though it potentially would have shown a bit of distortion due to the "cracked out" crossedover coins.
That raises an interesting question perhaps ..... if I were in a position where I had a MS70 coin, what would stop me having it graded as such then cracking it out and submitting it over and over and over thus increasing the PCGS population when only the single coin was graded? (Why you'd want to do that ...... who knows? ..... Just playing the Devil's Avocado ... [for all the Ronnie Johns fans])
Maybe this one should cross over.I suspect it would be worth far more in a PCGS slab
(http://www.australian-coins.net/gallery/albums/userpics/10137/69.jpg)
QuoteIt's just progress for TPG coins in Australia
It is NOT Progress at all, It is a step backwards and if this trend by PCGS isn't addressed then ALL of our PCGS graded coins will rapidly loose their value.
I have Hundreds of PCGS graded coins and this IS an issue that I am concerned about.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='104097' dateline='1484718857'QuoteIt's just progress for TPG coins in Australia
It is NOT Progress at all, It is a step backwards and if this trend by PCGS isn't addressed then ALL of our PCGS graded coins will rapidly loose their value.
I have Hundreds of PCGS graded coins and this IS an issue that I am concerned about.
So how will you address your problem considering that it's a free market .I'm in the process of dumping my easy to obtain mid grade coins for rarer examples that will never be graded in bulk but that's just me on a quest to continually upgrade my collection.I think it's a case of keep moving or get left behind
QuoteSo how will you address your problem considering that it's a free market
I am seriously thinking of selling ALL my PCGS graded coins before they loose any more value, Many of which are the single finest graded or equal finest at the moment.
QuoteI'm in the process of dumping my easy to obtain mid grade coins for rarer examples that will never be graded in bulk but that's just me on a quest to continually upgrade my collection.I think it's a case of keep moving or get left behind
What happens if this trend at PCGS continues or gets worse and your rarer examples get flooded out with overgraded/Market graded coins, Are you willing to take that sort of a "Hit" when the values plummet ?
The Best case scenario is that PCGS pulls it's head in and go back to grading the way they did 5 years ago and stops this foolishness before any more damage is done :good:
Here is my 2c worth.
1. More coins are graded by people now they see the market is paying more for TPG graded coins. Hence the number of coins graded at a certain level increased in the last 3 years or so (dont forget Australians only started grading there coins in bulk from 2012 or so. Therefore all the hordes getting graded now.)
2. Coin value has gone down due to supply and demand. Also we dont have GFenton and Timbertop going at coins harder anymore. Timbertop will go harder at coins if it is single finest etc. However there is no second heavy hitter in the market to get to super high level.
3. PCGS grades coins harsher than NGC. In my experience only lessthan 10% chance of a NGC coin getting a higher grade with PCGS.
I first started to get coins graded by PCGS in 2013 and I sent quite a few coins in for grading that came from Wedding sets and these had a reasonable number of coins on the PCGS population at that time.
Between 2013-2015 I would have sent probably 20 wedding sets to PCGS to be graded and NONE of the coins were graded at MS70 at that time, that is zero MS70 out of about 120 coins.
All of a sudden in 2016 the population of the MS70 wedding set coins exploded.
Why is it that in 2016 the same coins were getting higher grades on average than they were in 2013-2015 ?
This problem with PCGS lowering its grading standards is relatively new But it has been noticed not only with Australian coins but in the US and Canada as well.
Last year NGC changed its ruling of allowing PCGS graded coins to be added to the NGC set registry because of this problem.
It will be interesting to see how PCGS responds to what Mark Salzberg has written and hopefully they will do something positive to address what is currently happening at PCGS.
I can not talk about wedding set coins as I have zero knowledge and interest in them. However last time I graded NGC coins with PCGS none of the coins crossed at the same level. My observation is based on pre decimal coins.
Also PCGS allowed NGC coins to be added to to the registry sets for years and NGC is catching up.
I am not saying PCGS is perfect, however I can tell you even today most pre decimal coins will be graded harshly at PCGS.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='104097' dateline='1484718857'QuoteIt's just progress for TPG coins in Australia
It is NOT Progress at all, It is a step backwards and if this trend by PCGS isn't addressed then ALL of our PCGS graded coins will rapidly loose their value.
I have Hundreds of PCGS graded coins and this IS an issue that I am concerned about.
It's only a problem if PCGS' grades are actually slipping. I haven't observed this, and NGC is probably the least credible source for claiming it (as they are their biggest competitor).
If prices drop because of an increase in coins graded it just means prices are moving closer to their true values which represents the maturation of the market. Mature markets allow for more stable and fair pricing without risk margins factored in.
E.g. take the 1962 threepence vs the 1964 threepence in MS68.
About 8 years ago we sold one of each at $350. The populations of both were 3/0 which is worth much more than $350 but the market has to factor in the chance that more get graded so they traded at a discount.
Now the populations have increased to 4/0 and 10/0, considering the number of mint state pieces available the market clearly overestimated the number that would enter the ranks at MS68 so their prices have gone up with the 1962 trading at around $1700 and the 1964 trading at $740.
An even more extreme situation occurred with the 1957-Y Proof in PR67RD - we sold one for a record $12,250 in 2013 but since then only one additional piece was graded so when we had the opportunity to offer another for auction in 2015 it realised $22,300.
On the other hand the opposite effect can be seen with high grade decimal proofs as their populations have increased dramatically. Immature markets are highly speculative and while they can be highly profitable, they also carry huge risks.
This is why the maturation of markets is always a positive thing, yes some people will lose money in the process, some other people will make money but the end result is a market that is a lot safer to trade in with less big jumps or drops and overall more stable growth.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='104099' dateline='1484722063'QuoteI'm in the process of dumping my easy to obtain mid grade coins for rarer examples that will never be graded in bulk but that's just me on a quest to continually upgrade my collection.I think it's a case of keep moving or get left behind
What happens if this trend at PCGS continues or gets worse and your rarer examples get flooded out with overgraded/Market graded coins, Are you willing to take that sort of a "Hit" when the values plummet ?
I don't think there will be a surge in 1930 pennies or 1923 halfpennies being graded or any of the other rarities on my target list and I don't intend to pay retail for raw coins either .For me it's a case of buying coins that will still be in demand in the future and not the mass produced stuff the RAM spits out today but we all have our own strategies
As a fence sitter, I find this discussion very informative.
I agree with most of what you have said Walter, Especially about where the Decimal coin market is maturing and finding its levels.
The pop numbers for certain decimals have more than doubled in the last year so that has obviously had a downward effect on the values of these because of the increased supply.
Maybe you haven't noticed a decline in the grading standards But I have since about a year ago, Primarily in the Decimal coins as I haven't noticed or even had many pre decimals graded in the last 12 months.
Quote from: 'wwwww' pid='104124' dateline='1484782576'About 8 years ago we sold one of each at $350. The populations of both were 3/0 which is worth much more than $350 but the market has to factor in the chance that more get graded so they traded at a discount.
Now the populations have increased to 4/0 and 10/0, considering the number of mint state pieces available the market clearly overestimated the number that would enter the ranks at MS68 so their prices have gone up with the 1962 trading at around $1700 and the 1964 trading at $740.
Hey Walter, how did you work out the population at a specific point in time in the past? Was this just what you noted down in the past when you listed those coins? Or is this something you can look up today?
Just something I noted at the time.
PCGS' reply to NGC's comments:
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/974881/pcgs-grading
Eric
I want to see a big fight between NGC and PCGS so AJPCGS can step in and take over :mocking:
:laughingneqw:
Yes you can laugh Robster we I will rule the world :blink: :laugh2:
Well my own little world :blush2:
I usually have at least one submission in the system at any given time But I haven't sent any more coins to be graded since August last year with PCGS and November last year with NGC.
The main reason that I have been primarily using PCGS is so that I can add to my registry sets But I am revaluating why I should spend the extra time effort and money using PCGS over NGC just to be able to compete in the PCGS set registry pissing contest.
My last submission to PCGS was a nightmare and I am very unhappy as to how that particular submission was handled and I haven't sent any more coins away to be graded by PCGS since.
I do have a couple of submissions worth of coins that I want to have graded for my sets But I am reluctant to send them to PCGS at the moment.
I can always send them to NGC as the last few submissions that I have sent them have been silky smooth and far more economical than if I had used the PCGS service.
The problem that I have doing this is I won't be able to add the coins to my PCGS set registry sets and using the NGC set registry software is a Bloody nightmare to use compared to using the PCGS software to add new coins to sets.
My slab album pages can accommodate both NGC and PCGS slabs and so will the various wooden storage boxes that I use to store my collections in So I will have to work out for myself If the set registry thing is worth the effort and continuing on with it.
I will for now I will just sit back for a while and let the dust settle before I send any more submissions away to be graded by either TPG
Quote from: 'trout' pid='104693' dateline='1485900620'The problem that I have doing this is I won't be able to add the coins to my PCGS set registry sets and using the NGC set registry software is a Bloody nightmare to use compared to using the PCGS software to add new coins to sets.
My slab album pages can accommodate both NGC and PCGS slabs and so will the various wooden storage boxes that I use to store my collections in So I will have to work out for myself If the set registry thing is worth the effort and continuing on with it.
I will for now I will just sit back for a while and let the dust settle before I send any more submissions away to be graded by either TPG
How safe are wooden storage boxes (wood fumes, varnish fumes might cause tarnish) as far as coins go?
As for NGC Vs PGCS..... I gripe about the PCGS sets but NGC is just pathetic:dash1: As an example the shilling set. Top place is Benchmark (only there because all the cracked out and now PCGS coins were never deleted). 2nd place has just 5 rubbish coins and I'm in 3rd with 3 coins. Frankly speaking I cannot see why the 2nd place rubbish gets so many points. Their 1922 shilling is just VF (details) at 576 points, 1924 shilling VG10 is 1870 points, 1925 shilling F15 at 648 points, 1935 shilling AU53 824 points and 1942S shilling AU58 is 98 points (total 4016 points).
My 3rd place set is 1931 shilling MS64 1173 points, 1938 shilling MS66 505 points and 1952 shilling MS65 127 points (total 1805 points).
Can anyone explain how virtually bullion grade coins beat high MS coins? On the PCGS registry the totals would be (me) 325 points to (them) 203 points.
No wonder the NGC registry is gathering cobwebs.
To me this is what happens to big business when they know they have ya by the sort and curlies, like any other business that get a monopoly and are always changing things to suit them selves and to justify the BS prices they charge or some smart arse educated idiot to justify why they should get paid so much :dodgy: I hate how everything has to change just for the sake of change and to justify exorbitant prices :dash1: