Good morning Folks,
I have been observing the current market trends with Australian pre decimal values over the last 12 months or so. One of the encouraging factors as a coin collector is to see the prices going down, however on the other hand as a collector I am bit worried if prices goes down significantly, my hobby investment will be a complete waste of money and time. (Dont get me wrong, some fluctuations in the market doesnt bother me, however a coin that was sold for $14K getting sold for $6K is a worry).
Some examples of diminishing value of coins below,
1922 6D MS 65 - $14K in 2012/13 to $6K in 2015.
1963 Proof Half Penny PR67RD - $2K in 2014 to $500 in 2016
1912 6D in MS64 - $4K in 2014/15 to under $2K 2016
1919 6D in MS64 - $4K in 2013/14 to $1K in 2016
Personally I have sold some coins below market value in the recent months, good news is most went to fellow collectors... so after all its a good story..
Most of the coins above are in high grade with population chart not changing significantly in the last 3 years.. so what are your thoughts? Is this a cycle like many other things in the market, people are losing interest in coins, market is saturated or something in between ?
Let me know your thoughts?
By the way this relates to PCGS/NGC coin market as I have no idea about raw coin market trends...
Cheers.. AP
Maybe the trend downwards is because there are now too many slabbed coins being put up for sale and not because of consumers spending habits.
One can go too the coin shows etc and one sees more and more coins that have been slabbed up for sale. Table after table of the coins.
It is getting harder for one to find a lot of raw coins form sale these days at the shows.
Thanks GS.I think that has a major part to play... however having too many lower grade or coins in plastic therotically should not push down the value of high grade coins... ie if there is only 3 coins preserved in a certain coindition (ie GEM or MS65), and there are no other coin or any other potential coins could possibly be very hard to find, supply remains the same.. only change is the demand... hence the value going down... ?
I think there's quite a few things going on, lack of interest because if you look at facebook most people are into decimal now and don't seem to care much for pre, the market still hasn't recovered from the GFC, people have been really worried about their jobs and especially the last three years with the current government encouraging business to go off shore etc etc so they don't want to spend money in fear they get the sack and they prefer a roof over their head than a nice coin but who can blame them. But I have notice a major down turn and especially places like feebay and other auction sites and even the coin sites that specialise in coins.
So I don't think the amount of coins being slabbed has anything to do with it and if anything that should put the price of the top of the pop coins up showing how rare they are but for some strange reason that doesn't seem to be the case and I know what your saying AP as I bought my proofs at the wrong time and they'd be lucky if they're a quarter of what I paid for them but I hope things pick up in a few years or I'll be in the same boat and it's all been a waste of time and money even though I love collecting I would have been better off just saving my money. Anyway not much we can do, except like most things and just go along for the ride and hope things get better. But yes it's a buyers market if you can afford to sit on the coins for thirty to forty years as I can't see things getting better in the short term, well quite a few years anyway.
Good observations there AJ.. Thanks for your opinion.
Not that it's worth a cracker but no wuckers mate :friends:
Things can't stay bad forever :winkextra:
Things will pickup(or they usually do) August/Sept./Oct. when the Tax refunds start flowing.
The Pre decimal proofs market has dropped in value ,mainly due to 3 large collections which recently been sold off . Proofs are now picking up again in value .
If you have a Lone Ranger Top of Pops coin you will always get crazy money for it , but as soon as another coin achieves the same grade then value will plummet . I reckon this is what happened to the 1922 6d i see there's now 3 coins have achieved ms65 (top of pops)
The 1963 proof half population in 8/2014 there was 42 PR66red and 19 higher now there's 51 PR66reds, 2xPR66 + and 27 Pr67s and 1 Pr68 so there's been a significant change in the population.
If i see a 1/2d pr67red for 500 i will buy lol, the last sale I saw was around $700.
As for Facebook and them been mainly decimal collectors 95% of them are noodlers , which is fine, just another form of collecting.
There's still plenty of predecimal collectors out there lol, and values will rise again .
:wavemulticolor:
Reading the Above comments has turned on a light in my head.
One should be looking into the future for pre decimal coins values.
Myself and many on this forum have been through two lots of coinage. Two forms of currencies where one of the currencies, the pre decimals, will become rarer as time goes on.
I have a full circulated set of pre decimals including the 1930 penny (2), 1921/22 overprint threepence (2), 1923 halfpenny (3). Although the collection is in a circulated condition, it may not be worth much now but what if I left the collection to my son, then he leaves it to his son and so on. In a several hand me downs, the coins will be scare in any grade and a ready made collection would be worth a fortune, whatever the grade.
Maybe I should get another circulated set and giver that set to my daughter for passing on but there is only one problem, she is not married and has no children so the single set/collection I have will go to my son and hopefully he will pass it on.
Just my thoughts and ramblings.
Quote from: 'bellyflorin' pid='91453' dateline='1466912533'The Pre decimal proofs market has dropped in value ,mainly due to 3 large collections which recently been sold off . Proofs are now picking up again in value .
If you have a Lone Ranger Top of Pops coin you will always get crazy money for it , but as soon as another coin achieves the same grade then value will plummet . I reckon this is what happened to the 1922 6d i see there's now 3 coins have achieved ms65 (top of pops)
The 1963 proof half population in 8/2014 there was 42 PR66red and 19 higher now there's 51 PR66reds, 2xPR66 + and 27 Pr67s and 1 Pr68 so there's been a significant change in the population.
If i see a 1/2d pr67red for 500 i will buy lol, the last sale I saw was around $700.
As for Facebook and them been mainly decimal collectors 95% of them are noodlers , which is fine, just another form of collecting.
There's still plenty of predecimal collectors out there lol, and values will rise again .
:wavemulticolor:
Hey Belly, Thanks for the comments... I know what you mean, In terms of the 1922 6D, I think only introduction on to pop chart after the first $14K sale is one MS65 (One of the other MS65's has upgraded to a MS65+) as when the referenced coin went on auction there were 3 MS65 coins in existence..... please refer to link below.
http://www.icollector.com/1922-Sixpence_i12960337
As for the 1963 Proof 1/2 D, one was sold for $460. :yahoo:
However I agree things will come back up when most of the large collections are now on the market are sold off...
Cheers for your comments.
Quote from: 'Goldseeker' pid='91455' dateline='1466912671'Reading the Above comments has turned on a light in my head.
One should be looking into the future for pre decimal coins values.
Myself and many on this forum have been through two lots of coinage. Two forms of currencies where one of the currencies, the pre decimals, will become rarer as time goes on.
I have a full circulated set of pre decimals including the 1930 penny (2), 1921/22 overprint threepence (2), 1923 halfpenny (3). Although the collection is in a circulated condition, it may not be worth much now but what if I left the collection to my son, then he leaves it to his son and so on. In a several hand me downs, the coins will be scare in any grade and a ready made collection would be worth a fortune, whatever the grade.
Maybe I should get another circulated set and giver that set to my daughter for passing on but there is only one problem, she is not married and has no children so the single set/collection I have will go to my son and hopefully he will pass it on.
Just my thoughts and ramblings.
Excellent Idea, I agree with you.. if you pass down a few sets of nice sets of coins, in a few decades it will be worth a fortune ... I have invested a fair few $ in to my hobby. As long as my kids can cash it in, I will be more than happy ..
I have taken my collector hat off and put my investor hat on to write this :ok:
With the way that emails and social media have all but eliminated the need for letters and postage stamps, even most parcels these days have no stamps just the stick on ticket from the Post Office on them.
This has all but destroyed the stamp collecting hobby.
Maybe in a few decades our money transactions may be nearly all done electronically and coins may go down the same path as postage stamps and become almost obsolete , What will happen to coin collecting if this occurs is pretty obvious .
I am not being pessimistic here, Just being realistic :ok:
I would think that bullion coins will always be around simply because they are a way to store wealth that cannot be eaten away by bank fees , Negative interest rates are being seriously considered by many countries at the moment and some countries already have it in place.
There will always be a core of collectors like there still is with stamps but the population of coin collectors can only shrink if we end up virtually a cashless society and with a shrinking collector base the values of coins can only get less as the demand weakens.
I hear you, I think by society not using money make the demand even higher due to scarceness of the coins ? Most of the antiques are just that.. not used and not readily available anymore..
Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='91460' dateline='1466918672'I hear you, I think by society not using money make the demand even higher due to scarceness of the coins ? Most of the antiques are just that.. not used and not readily available anymore..
That would be nice if that is the outcome But I am just telling it as I see it and I sincerely hope that I am wrong about this :ok:
Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='91434' dateline='1466899312'observing the current market trends ... as a coin collector
I think there's the problem right there. The slab game is a market and an industry, like any other market. It isn't what I'd call 'collecting' at all, and it has little to do with the coins. Rather it is subject to all the same forces as any other market. You may as well be trading Bitcoins or Pounds or Gold... its all about how much you can make flipping an investment. That's not collecting in my book.
And this is a big part of why I dislike slabs. I'd rather play in an area where I can concern myself with the object of my desires, and not the box its in or population reports. If I pull a mule out of the pond, or a 1930 penny out of a deceased estate bulk lot, THAT's collecting. When I go to feepay and buy a hunk of plastic, that's pure speculation, or, if I'm kidding myself, an 'investment'.
Markets gunna do what markets do. They go up, they go down, they spike, they crash. And usually it has nothing to do with fundamentals. So we need to understand what type of game it is, and play it accordingly.
Sorry I disagree Fulvio, I am a collector and enjoy collecting coins. I buy graded coins because I can not grade coins at all and the few times I did that I failed miserably... if I was a pure investor, I would have bought a property or two or even some shares... I struggle to sell my coins even at a very high profit because I love my collection. In saying that I dont want to wast my money on something. I think as a parent that is a complete irresponsible management of money...
I do agree PCGS is a business and like most things come and go. However if the coin inside the plastic is in good quality, then thats what I have paid money for ... If the value of coins have gone up and PCGS has disappeared, I still have a good coin..
Crappy day outside so it's inside for me, and at the risk of spiralling into a whirlpool of negativity, just my two bobs worth. Firstly I agree with much of what's already been said, but from where I sit it's been the familiar old cycle of boom and bust / greed and disappointment.
I'm probably generalising here so not entirely directing this at slabbed coin values, but eight to fifteen years ago auction and general sale results were driving perceived values higher and higher and people were throwing any amount of cash at collectable coins and notes, and on one occasion I remember spectating at an IAG auction where the crowd would erupt into ecstatic applause when as it seemed every banknote sold for a record price. I remember thinking at the time this was too good to last, then with asking prices eventually reaching unrealistic and unsustainable levels and a GFC not helping, the obvious correction that needed to happen, happened. At this point we saw the demise of two main players in the numismatic industry, as well as many ordinary collectors deciding that life's priorities needed reassessing.
Being a keen predecimal collector, it was during this period I decided my pockets weren't deep enough to be chasing high grade examples so my interest in penny varieties heightened, and have concentrated my collecting chasing the more elusive types in reasonably good grade which were cheaper. Ironically it's these very varieties that have had the biggest surge in interest and value at auctions in recent years, not that it's a big deal to some, especially not to one of our better known catalogers who still refuses to update the main penny listing to a relevant level. Just thought I'd throw that in :blush:
There were no doubt other factors contributing to collectors reducing their activity in the hobby or leaving it altogether, much of which being mentioned countless times by many on this forum, with dodgy practises by some operators in the trade being the reason put forward for feelings of disappointment, distrust and of being conned.
Another issue has been the values published by catalogers. On more than one occasion I have heard a dealer make the unsavory quip that they loved seeing collectors roaming the floor of coin shows clutching a coin and banknote values pocket book. Whilst that type of talk infuriates most, the fact is they were right to think that because the catalogue values had been thought of by many as being irrelevant for a long time, and IMO the only reason these overinflated values were eventually downgraded was due to being dragged squealing by the short and curly's to the editors desk by a market that was sadly out of tune with the numbers. The big problem was that some collectors after placing blind faith in these numbers being presented, understandably, could be heard screaming from the rooftops when the values were eventually reassessed.
Now that at long last the reset button has been pressed, things will go forward just as they did after the excesses of the eighties, and that just happened to be when my Dad's interest in the hobby also declined to a point.
Very nicely put together Auto, I totally agree.. When I started collecting coins, I was referring to some of the coin catalogs and buying coins... guess what winner was not me.. it was the dealers and auction houses.. What I have also note is some catalogues dont update their sources that regularly and prices privided are very much outdated ( note this is only true when the prices go down, when they go up this may not be the case)...
Now I try to use my head when buying coins.. my old mate Rob from here is the one to knock some sense in to me... (thanks mate)...
This is the reason why (as you said there ) buyer should go by gut feel and commen sense ratherthan a plan old catalogue. (1948 3D in MS66 were selling for $000's at some auction houses and the catalogue was sitting at $800 ++ when the coins were selling elsewhere for $200..)...
Anyways this is really good dialogue.. keep it going guys..Thanks all..
As my greatest passion has always been Fishing and I embedded my first treble hook in my knee at the ripe old age of 4 , Whatever the coin market does IS relevant but not That important to me in the overall scheme of things.
Just like my fishing gear and boat etc I would never hope to recover the expense put into my coins and fishing gear But both have brought me immeasurable pleasure over the years and I have absolutely NO regrets.
I am only 62 at the moment But I am thinking that in the next couple of years I may downsize my collection considerably and turn whatever funds I can recover into memories of the fish I catch and the places that I caught them in :)
I think that I have pretty much "Been there Done that" with coins and there are literally thousands of Beaches, reefs, rivers and creeks in Australia that I Haven't fished yet and it is getting close to the time where I should be spending more time out of my office at home and more at my office on the boat or beach, fishing and camping at various different places around Aus :yahoo:
Now thats a retirement plan ! Good luck with it all mate.. may be post some photos of Barra when you get a whopper...
I have a no major issue not being able to recovering my money spent on coins... I have wasted lot of money on other passions I had when I was in my 20's and early 30's... thats life.. my main question was around the market trends.. I have invested nothing compared to buyers putting 20 big ones for a coin at auction... I see a downward spiral.. wonder how far or how long it would go for... on the otherhand I am happy if the price goes down as I have a few more coin needing to finish off my collection:yahoo:
That 22 6D has a few nice die cracks :)
My guess is that the overall market for PCGS graded pre-decimal will go sideways until confidence comes back.
If its not quite top pop then there are bargains out there.
Top pop will continue to do well as usual.
Quote from: 'echidna' pid='91476' dateline='1466930787'My guess is that the overall market for PCGS graded pre-decimal will go sideways until confidence comes back.
If its not quite top pop then there are bargains out there.
Top pop will continue to do well as usual.
Yes I agree, in saying that our coins still do well in US auction houses ! I think some of the coins that are going cheap since they are the top pop are still very hard to come by... people have this idea MS64 coins comes around everyday.. for earlier years that is only wishful thinking if you ask me ... only time will tell....:angel:
Surely the collapse of the Rare Coin Company put a flood of nice coins on the market and possibly scared off many "investors" (and some collectors) who had been buying coins until then expecting guaranteed returns . Also I remember a decade ago all those expensive coins that were jumping 10-20% each year as self managed super funds were creating a bubble. and a buy now or miss out mentality. According to a website (Commbank) the ATOs rules about SMSF investing in artworks/coins etc were tightened in July 2011 and come into full effect in July 2016. The amount of those investments have fallen from 713 million to 419 million and as a percent of SMSF investments the fall is even greater (from 0.18% to 0.07%).
As for actual prices of slabbed coins I offer the following purchase prices that I've paid for 1943D threepences (all in MS66).
9/12/13 PCGS $338
5/6/15 PCGS $120
8/12/15 NGC $42.50
29/12/15 PCGS $63.90
22/2/16 NGC $50 (Benchmark coin)
So a drop of over 80% in under 3 years. When I paid $338 I missed out on another one for also over $330, IIRC there were over 30 at that grade then and maybe another 10 have been added to the population report.
I'm averaging buying a slab a week now as I pick up bargains, not sure that prices won't drop a bit more but in the long run I think the prices will rise (but in real dollar terms after inflation adjustment I think the rise will be very low and the prices paid 3 years ago will not be achieved for many years).
Fortunately I have only started buying PCGS slabbed coins this year previously preferring to buy raw and
send for slabbing myself,but I have been recently able buy high grade KGV PCGS coins as low as half
the bluesheet value which is much cheaper than I have seen them as a rule ,I don't know how much longer it will last
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='91482' dateline='1466934645'Surely the collapse of the Rare Coin Company put a flood of nice coins on the market and possibly scared off many "investors" (and some collectors) who had been buying coins until then expecting guaranteed returns . Also I remember a decade ago all those expensive coins that were jumping 10-20% each year as self managed super funds were creating a bubble. and a buy now or miss out mentality. According to a website (Commbank) the ATOs rules about SMSF investing in artworks/coins etc were tightened in July 2011 and come into full effect in July 2016. The amount of those investments have fallen from 713 million to 419 million and as a percent of SMSF investments the fall is even greater (from 0.18% to 0.07%).
As for actual prices of slabbed coins I offer the following purchase prices that I've paid for 1943D threepences (all in MS66).
9/12/13 PCGS $338
5/6/15 PCGS $120
8/12/15 NGC $42.50
29/12/15 PCGS $63.90
22/2/16 NGC $50 (Benchmark coin)
So a drop of over 80% in under 3 years. When I paid $338 I missed out on another one for also over $330, IIRC there were over 30 at that grade then and maybe another 10 have been added to the population report.
I'm averaging buying a slab a week now as I pick up bargains, not sure that prices won't drop a bit more but in the long run I think the prices will rise (but in real dollar terms after inflation adjustment I think the rise will be very low and the prices paid 3 years ago will not be achieved for many years).
Thanks Neal, some good points there ... I hope in the long run, prices will recover.. however as you said, some of the prices paid by various buyers will take a long time to recover.. Only time will tell..
I don't buy slabs I send raw coins to PCGS that I love via Eric
I know this is basically regarding high end coins & banknotes, but since this was first announced back in 2011 I have noticed a decline in Pre-decimal banknotes in particular, & I have been told it has also effected the price of Penfolds Grange which many people had as investments. The main reason is you can't store them at home anymore.
Other collectibles from July 2016
If you hold artwork, antiques, coins, or other collectibles within your self-managed super fund, then you need to be aware of new rules regarding storage and insurance that originally came into effect from July 2011, and will reach their full effect from July 2016.
The new rules, taking full effect from July 2016, have been 5 years in the making, and I doubt the ATO will be lenient if you fail to ensure that your SMSF's long-held artwork (if any) is stored and insured according to the new rules.
The impending date of July 2016 has had a big impact on the level of collectibles held by SMSFs. In the ATO SMSF statistics as at June 2011, $713 million (0.18%) of all SMSF assets were held in collectibles, while 4.5 years later, as at December 2015, a mere $419 million (0.07%) of the massive $595 billion assets held by SMSFs were in collectibles. Although a relatively small allocation in both instances, in dollar terms and in percentage terms, the allocation to collectibles has apparently been savaged by the new storage and insurance rules. The allocation to collectibles has more than halved in a period of 4.5 years, and presumably you can expect SMSF investment in collectibles to fall further by July 2016.
Since 1 July 2011, new collectibles and 'personal-use' assets owned by SMSFs must be stored according to new guidelines, and must be covered by insurance, and the collectible asset must be independently valued. The storage requirement has been introduced to prevent SMSF trustees receiving a personal benefit from the SMSF investment. I explain what assets fall within the collectibles (collectables) definition and personal use assets definition later in the article.
Note: The new rules apply to all new SMSF investments purchased on or after 1 July 2011.Existing collectibles and person use assets held by a SMSF as at 30 June 2011 have not had to comply with the new rules but they will need to comply by the 30 June 2016 (a five-year transition period).
Why were the new rules introduced?
The flurry of activity and discussion relating to SMSF collectibles was initially triggered by the Cooper Review's recommendation (released in May 2010) that SMSFs be forbidden from investing in collectibles and personal-use assets; such as, art, jewellery, exotic cars, yachts, antiques, coins, banknotes race horses and wine.
What types of assets are covered by the guidelines?
Section 62A of the Superannuation Industry (Supervision) Act 1993 provides for regulations to be made in relation to collectibles (collectables) and personal use assets. Regulation 13.18AA (1) lists the assets that are considered collectibles and personal use assets for the purpose of the new guidelines:
artwork (as per the meaning contained in the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997). In the ITAA, artwork is defined as a painting, sculpture, drawing, engraving or photograph, or a reproduction on of these items, or property of a similar description or use
jewellery
antiques
artefacts
coins, medallions or bank notes
postage stamps or first day covers
rare folios, manuscripts or books
memorabilia
wine or spirits
motor vehicles
recreational boats
memberships of sporting or social clubs.
Thank you interest... I agree, nice article..
I would think that the downturn in values for TPG graded coins is primarily because they were overvalued in the first place and are now finding their "level" now that more and more coins have been added to the slabbed populations.
There is probably also a perception amongst collectors that the current top of the pop's coins will be bettered by new submissions as time goes by as these slabbed coins are relatively new on the Australian collecting scene .
The upside of this is that the "Raw" coins in genuine high grades have increased in value due to the competition from buyers that need them to be sent away to be graded by PCGS/NGC.
Yes I've been saying to Belly for a while now about "sleeper" :winkextra: When they come out of the wood work as more of the older collectors kick the bucket and people don't know what they have inherited so flog them off cheap..sometimes :)
Quote from: 'trout' pid='91535' dateline='1466995052'There is probably also a perception amongst collectors that the current top of the pop's coins will be bettered by new submissions as time goes by as these slabbed coins are relatively new on the Australian collecting scene .
At a guess I would say that current PCGS registrations of OZ coins, particularly pre decimal coins, would only be a fraction of the higher end grades lingering in old collections and stashes. This is what worries me with the high prices being currently paid for some slabbed OZ coins.
Quote from: 'autocoupler' pid='91589' dateline='1467041553'At a guess I would say that current PCGS registrations of OZ coins, particularly pre decimal coins, would only be a fraction of the higher end grades lingering in old collections and stashes.
:i_agree:
QuoteThis is what worries me with the high prices being currently paid for some slabbed OZ coins.
I'm not bothered, if a correction occurs then so be it.
there will always be old collections and hoards
without that, we have no hobby
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='91601' dateline='1467067534'there will always be old collections and hoards
without that, we have no hobby
Also hoarded mint rolls. I purchased 2 rolls of 1954 Commemoratives off Stuart A. these past 6 months. Until I unwrap them I won't know if I have any above MS63 and how many above and how high above (I can dream of MS67, so why spoil that dream by opening them). That probably applies to the thousands of rolls of pre decimals out there and those rolls might remain unwrapped for another 60 years. For all I know either roll might be filled with MS65 or higher and upset the population reports.
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='91643' dateline='1467103748'Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='91601' dateline='1467067534'there will always be old collections and hoards
without that, we have no hobby
Also hoarded mint rolls. I purchased 2 rolls of 1954 Commemoratives off Stuart A. these past 6 months. Until I unwrap them I won't know if I have any above MS63 and how many above and how high above (I can dream of MS67, so why spoil that dream by opening them). That probably applies to the thousands of rolls of pre decimals out there and those rolls might remain unwrapped for another 60 years. For all I know either roll might be filled with MS65 or higher and upset the population reports.
We have to be friends now Neal, just in case :yahoo:
Nice work... hopefully you will get some nice high grades ...:wavemulticolor:
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='91643' dateline='1467103748'Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='91601' dateline='1467067534'there will always be old collections and hoards
without that, we have no hobby
Also hoarded mint rolls. I purchased 2 rolls of 1954 Commemoratives off Stuart A. these past 6 months. Until I unwrap them I won't know if I have any above MS63 and how many above and how high above (I can dream of MS67, so why spoil that dream by opening them). That probably applies to the thousands of rolls of pre decimals out there and those rolls might remain unwrapped for another 60 years. For all I know either roll might be filled with MS65 or higher and upset the population reports.
are you sure that its not a re-roll of 54 florins? I know of a coin dealer who is re rolling coins, putting a ms coin at the end of roll and selling the rolls without actually saying mint state rolls or mint rolls. you might find its full of circulated coins.
yikes! :-/
the old rolls were hand rolled anyways at the banks weren't they?
so the coins could be a mix of new ones and ones that the bank had already collected ?
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='91675' dateline='1467182661'yikes! :-/
the old rolls were hand rolled anyways at the banks weren't they?
so the coins could be a mix of new ones and ones that the bank had already collected ?
If it was a bank roll of mixed coins then in my opinion the roll would be a mix of non commemorative coins and the odds of a 54 coin being at both ends in UNC condition would be astronomical. It could be a complete roll of unc 54 royal visit florins. What I am aware of is complete rolls of coins in plain brown paper, all the same year/type with an UNC coin at each end but a mixture of grades in the middle. A clearly home rolled roll designed to deceive a buyer. I always look at coin rolls carefully as they are the easiest way to dupe an unsuspecting buyer.
Just saying
Quote from: 'serial' pid='91674' dateline='1467182544'Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='91643' dateline='1467103748'Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='91601' dateline='1467067534'there will always be old collections and hoards
without that, we have no hobby
Also hoarded mint rolls. I purchased 2 rolls of 1954 Commemoratives off Stuart A. these past 6 months. Until I unwrap them I won't know if I have any above MS63 and how many above and how high above (I can dream of MS67, so why spoil that dream by opening them). That probably applies to the thousands of rolls of pre decimals out there and those rolls might remain unwrapped for another 60 years. For all I know either roll might be filled with MS65 or higher and upset the population reports.
are you sure that its not a re-roll of 54 florins? I know of a coin dealer who is re rolling coins, putting a ms coin at the end of roll and selling the rolls without actually saying mint state rolls or mint rolls. you might find its full of circulated coins.
A pretty unethical dealer that you know:@ Sounds like a fast way to turn away future/repeat customers.
I'm confident that my rolls are the real deal. Stuart Anderson sells plenty of slabbed coins and I've seen him sell many sheets of Unc ex roll coins on fleabay (presumably he cracks several rolls, puts the ChUnc in slabs and the Unc in the sheets, a good way for us to get reasonable coins at a modest price and the choice stuff in slabs). I presume that he has more than enough slabs and I picked up some of the excess rolls. I've also purchased slabs off him on multiple occasions and his operation is an example of how dealers get repeat sales.
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='91681' dateline='1467189713'Quote from: 'serial' pid='91674' dateline='1467182544'Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='91643' dateline='1467103748'Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='91601' dateline='1467067534'there will always be old collections and hoards
without that, we have no hobby
Also hoarded mint rolls. I purchased 2 rolls of 1954 Commemoratives off Stuart A. these past 6 months. Until I unwrap them I won't know if I have any above MS63 and how many above and how high above (I can dream of MS67, so why spoil that dream by opening them). That probably applies to the thousands of rolls of pre decimals out there and those rolls might remain unwrapped for another 60 years. For all I know either roll might be filled with MS65 or higher and upset the population reports.
are you sure that its not a re-roll of 54 florins? I know of a coin dealer who is re rolling coins, putting a ms coin at the end of roll and selling the rolls without actually saying mint state rolls or mint rolls. you might find its full of circulated coins.
A pretty unethical dealer that you know:@ Sounds like a fast way to turn away future/repeat customers.
I'm confident that my rolls are the real deal. Stuart Anderson sells plenty of slabbed coins and I've seen him sell many sheets of Unc ex roll coins on fleabay (presumably he cracks several rolls, puts the ChUnc in slabs and the Unc in the sheets, a good way for us to get reasonable coins at a modest price and the choice stuff in slabs). I presume that he has more than enough slabs and I picked up some of the excess rolls. I've also purchased slabs off him on multiple occasions and his operation is an example of how dealers get repeat sales.
I second that, he is a nice enough guy and very polite and non arrogant. I have started to buy coins from recently. Very happy with the quality of coins as well..
Stuart Anderson is totally honest with all his listings and lots
I have also purchased from Stuart Andersen with no problems.[/i]
The upcoming Nobles will be a real bellwether that will show us where we're at in the market.
Re Commonwealth coins, I think we've been bobbing along at the bottom for some time now. The better-grade coins aren't common, so it won't take many collectors to start putting upward pressure on prices.
Eric
QuoteThe upcoming Nobles will be a real bellwether that will show us where we're at in the market.
It will be interesting to see the prices achieved at this auction because of the volume of high grade coins on offer.
picking up my $5.55 lotto ticket in the morning .... wishin and hopin ...
re nobles auction
i just might go to view :drooling: a few and see if being in hand will tempt me to open the purse strings !!
got my lotto ticket
now make sure you wipe the slobber off the coins when you leave duggee
Quote from: 'duggee27' pid='92435' dateline='1468312825're nobles auction
i just might go to view :drooling: a few and see if being in hand will tempt me to open the purse strings !!
You are a Braver Man than me Gungadin :)
Quote from: 'trout' pid='92439' dateline='1468316261'Quote from: 'duggee27' pid='92435' dateline='1468312825're nobles auction
i just might go to view :drooling: a few and see if being in hand will tempt me to open the purse strings !!
You are a Braver Man than me Gungadin :)
ahh ... the tyranny of distance for you trout. i'd imagine we would be elbowing each other out of the way to get to the front of the queue whilst AJ would leap over us :taunt::tease::laughingneqw::good::P
Nah you boys play way too hard for me duggee so i'd only be window shopping :)
Speaking of window shopping, I was looking at the 1919 Penny Double dot. Sure, the coin is rare in that grade, but looks to have an excess of verdigris on the obverse which is pretty much entrenched.
Interested to hear any thoughts on this?
Yeah,great coin,its got the big lump over the top scroll,probably a early Mint as not many of those around as i guessed they 'trimmed' the Die somewhere along the line.These weren't regarded as a separate variety for many years,well into the 1960's before they were accepted by many Dealers & 'Éxperts',Info on another Thread on this Forum.
No idea what $ it will go for but the Verdigris will be a problem in the long term you would think even if it has been treated and is benign.
http://www.noble.com.au/auctions/lot?id=364620
Its not the most attractive penny I ever saw:
(http://images.pcgs.com/SecurePlus/26008663_Large.jpg)
is that a photo from the viewing
gee doesn't really look like a $2,500 coin does it?
That is the PCGS image (Cert #26008663).
oh
it looks much nicer on the Nobles website
That's because nobles is trying to sell it and pcgs isn't :winkextra:
Quote from: 'ausjack' pid='92478' dateline='1468394962'That's because nobles is trying to sell it and pcgs isn't :winkextra:
LOL :taunt:
Beware the tricksters
Yes too right Stevo :good:
How about the bull dust estimate. No way 80% of the coins will sell that low. Heaps are already over estimate.
Noble's slab photos are in my experience a pretty reasonable indication of the coin. Their raw coin photos however don't show the natural lustre well and enhance details by reflecting light directly into the lens. They can't do this with slab photos as you get glare though Heritage somehow manages (probably an axial technique with an anti-glare filter).
That penny looks like it was net graded for that staining (verdigris?) on the obverse, it's got AU details, sharp 8 pearls.
I would think that the advent of Graded and slabbed coins did improve the market value of coins especially in higher grades and the scarcer types because of the reliability factor associated with NGC/PCGS as opposed to the raw coin market which was and still is rife with overgraded, cleaned and counterfeits ( This is NOT a new thing invented recently by the Chinese BTW) .
As the number of graded coins in our collections increase ( regardless of grade ) the demand for them will eventually level out after the initial "Flush" of collectors seeking genuine and honestly graded coins for their collections have fulfilled that need.
From what I can ascertain the coin market is alive and well But it is going through a period of adjustment and the prices are simply returning to reality because of the increased population of these graded coins that is now available in the market and this has reduced the competition for them.
As far as I can see the RAW coin market IS facing a bit of a slump but I think that this is primarily due to many of these raw coins being priced at the same values as the NGC/PCGS graded coins and as collectors no longer have to accept the often inflated opinion/grade given to a coin by a seller/dealer the prices achieved for raw coin sales will adjust accordingly I would think .
Quote from: 'trout' pid='92522' dateline='1468461551'I would think that the advent of Graded and slabbed coins did improve the market value of coins especially in higher grades and the scarcer types because of the reliability factor associated with NGC/PCGS as opposed to the raw coin market which was and still is rife with overgraded, cleaned and counterfeits ( This is NOT a new thing invented recently by the Chinese BTW) .
As the number of graded coins in our collections increase ( regardless of grade ) the demand for them will eventually level out after the initial "Flush" of collectors seeking genuine and honestly graded coins for their collections have fulfilled that need.
From what I can ascertain the coin market is alive and well But it is going through a period of adjustment and the prices are simply returning to reality because of the increased population of these graded coins that is now available in the market and this has reduced the competition for them.
As far as I can see the RAW coin market IS facing a bit of a slump but I think that this is primarily due to many of these raw coins being priced at the same values as the NGC/PCGS graded coins and as collectors no longer have to accept the often inflated opinion/grade given to a coin by a seller/dealer the prices achieved for raw coin sales will adjust accordingly I would think .
How can there ever really be an initial "Flush" that is fulfilled? Collecting is an itch that is never satisfied.
I'm probably like most serious collectors who now collect slabs. Initially I was happy buying nice grade coins and filled many slots (my 29 slot PCGS Commonwealth Silver set is now 2/3rds filled) but just because those slots are filled doesn't mean that I no longer need to buy slabs for those slots. Instead I now buy more coins for those slots to have comparison coins (such as the same date but in different grades) and also upgraders. I'll even buy the same date in the same grade and I'm sure that somebody:angel: would understand the pleasure I get from having 3 Canberra florins all in MS64 and contrasting them for colour, diecracks, steps and surfaces (that florin I got last month is the least attractive with black toning but has near perfect steps).
I would agree that prices have adjusted. I would have never thought that I could get a 1954 Commemorative florin in MS65 at a B.I.N of $275 this week when I paid near that for a MS64+ just 2 years ago. Then again there were no MS66 2 years ago (4 now) and I had the only 64+ (5 now) so the supply/demand factors come into play when another 10 in MS65 were also added to the pool.
QuoteHow can there ever really be an initial "Flush" that is fulfilled? Collecting is an itch that is never satisfied.
Not all collectors feel the need to have more than one example of each coin, so when that gap in the collection is filled that is the end of it.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='92532' dateline='1468481372'QuoteHow can there ever really be an initial "Flush" that is fulfilled? Collecting is an itch that is never satisfied.
Not all collectors feel the need to have more than one example of each coin, so when that gap in the collection is filled that is the end of it.
I have plenty of duplicates. Only time they go elsewhere is when I am itching to get something nicer but bit strap for funds... :angel:
Funnily enough I have the odd extra coin or two for certain types as well, But the majority of your average collectors will normally just have the one example of each coin or is in the process of achieving that goal.
I have some duplicates through a combination of bad planning on my part, buying coins I already have and also multi-coin lots at auctions where to get one or two desirable coins I end up with a few ring-ins. I'm not sure if I'm an average collector, I have about 150 slabs plus 5 or 6 duplicates (all pre-decimals as per the OP). I also have 25 coins stuck at PCGS for over two months.
QuoteI also have 25 coins stuck at PCGS for over two months.
Two Bob.
I don't think that you are an orphan there Mate :angel:
Don't get me wrong here, I have nothing against slabbed coins as long as they come from Top tier grading companies and not some backyard slabber.
After my initial feelings of distrust and distaste regarding these graded coins from PCGS/NGC I have since fully embraced the concept because I realised that these slabbed coins are a far safer option of acquiring a coin in any given grade and they gave me an assurance that they ARE in fact problem free and are also the genuine article .
This cannot be said about many of my Raw coins that I have bought in the past and that includes some of them that I have sourced from reputable Dealers.
What I am saying is that as the population of graded coins continues to grow in Australia the opportunities to acquire any given coin will increase as will also the competition between sellers/dealers to get your business .
This can only lead to a more rationalised level of prices for coins.
As for all those "Raw" coins on the market that are priced at the same rate as a graded coin then there can only be a downward trend as many collectors now think that If the coin is as good as this particular seller says it is then Why hasn't it been slabbed ??
The market for Pre decimal coins has been pretty quiet for a while now and maybe that is because the new collectors joining the hobby are used to seeing/handling decimal coins and that they are a far cheaper option to collect than the pre decimal stuff.
The Decimal coin market appears to quite buoyant at the moment and has grown quite a lot over the last decade or so.
Just have the one slabber at the moment he he, well technically three if I include a 1918 penny that was freed from a slab due to verdigris, as well as a 1981 2 cent no sd evicted from it's slab just because I could. I must say though, there was absolutely nothing wrong with the APCGS coin, I just preferred to view and store my coins in 2X2's or saflips at the time. Anyhow, I will generally have only one example of each date in the raw, but this is not to say I'm not open to multiple numbers for any particular date whether slabbed or raw, the main criteria being the level of upgrade versus cost.
I'm realistic enough to understand that my pockets will never allow me to achieve top of the pops among the rarer items, and to be perfectly honest I get more satisfaction from a scarce raw variety coin in high grade that was lifted from the pond. The thrill of the hunt is definitely the attraction for me.
QuoteI also have 25 coins stuck at PCGS for over two months.
When were your coins received by PCGS ??
Quote from: 'trout' pid='92544' dateline='1468514018'QuoteI also have 25 coins stuck at PCGS for over two months.
When were your coins received by PCGS ??
I'm not sure of the exact date, I submitted through a local dealer who received them on 22/04/2016 and forwarded them to PCGS on 12/05/2016. I got an update on 12/06/2016 "just playing the waiting game now".
Quote from: 'r9453' pid='92547' dateline='1468520408'Quote from: 'trout' pid='92544' dateline='1468514018'QuoteI also have 25 coins stuck at PCGS for over two months.
When were your coins received by PCGS ??
I'm not sure of the exact date, I submitted through a local dealer who received them on 22/04/2016 and forwarded them to PCGS on 12/05/2016. I got an update on 12/06/2016 "just playing the waiting game now".
I think you'll be lucky if you see your coins by the end of August .My last lot left my hands on the 11th January and I only received the results on 7th June but still dont have them back yet so I hope yours are quicker than that
QuoteI think you'll be lucky if you see your coins by the end of August .My last lot left my hands on the 11th January and I only received the results on 7th June but still dont have them back yet so I hope yours are quicker than that
If the coins don't get snagged up in Customs I normally get mine back within a week to 10 days from PCGS, The last lot only took 6 days.
What is your USPS tracking number that PCGS supplies you with telling you ??
Quote from: 'trout' pid='92553' dateline='1468536233'QuoteI think you'll be lucky if you see your coins by the end of August .My last lot left my hands on the 11th January and I only received the results on 7th June but still dont have them back yet so I hope yours are quicker than that
If the coins don't get snagged up in Customs I normally get mine back within a week to 10 days from PCGS, The last lot only took 6 days.
What is your USPS tracking number that PCGS supplies you with telling you ??
Sent through a third party so will never know
QuoteI'm not sure of the exact date, I submitted through a local dealer who received them on 22/04/2016 and forwarded them to PCGS on 12/05/2016. I got an update on 12/06/2016 "just playing the waiting game now".
If your dealer sent them on the 12th then they probably arrived at PCGS sometime around the 22nd.
I have 2 economy submissions that arrived at PCGS 13/5/16 that are still awaiting grading.
QuoteSent through a third party so will never know
Maybe they are doing the Customs "Thing".
There is a fair bit of paperwork and Red tape involved getting a submission released from Customs and like any other gov department they are most definitely NOT in any hurry to help you :dash1:
I hope you get your coins soon Mate :ok:
Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='92549' dateline='1468533510'I think you'll be lucky if you see your coins by the end of August
I'm prepared for that, being my first submission I'm a little bit anxious. I have another 50 coins I want to send and I was going to wait until I got the first lot back before going again. At this rate I'll be lucky to get two submissions per year.
Quote from: 'r9453' pid='92566' dateline='1468553539'Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='92549' dateline='1468533510'I think you'll be lucky if you see your coins by the end of August
I'm prepared for that, being my first submission I'm a little bit anxious. I have another 50 coins I want to send and I was going to wait until I got the first lot back before going again. At this rate I'll be lucky to get two submissions per year.
Don't send too many in on the same submission if the grading fees are more than $1000 AUD not USD Customs may seize the order, This has happened to me a few times :dash1:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='92567' dateline='1468553874'Don't send too many in on the same submission if the grading fees are more than $1000 AUD not USD Customs may seize the order, This has happened to me a few times :dash1:
Thanks for the tip, hopefully my dealer would point that out as well. I was going to send 20 - 25 coins per month but that is not going to happen. As soon as I get the results back I will send another batch to the dealer but I might be lucky to get those coins back by Xmas.
The cost of shipping is more than processing fee so for dealers it's better to send big orders (unless speed is important).
Non-GST registered entities however will be worse off as they won't otherwise have to pay GST on slabbing fees if it's below $1000. This doesn't apply if you send it through a GST registered business.
Well after the dust has settled a bit from the Fenton sale and the influx of PCGS graded coins from a certain dealer in Qld has hit the market there has been quite an adjustment in the market values for pre decimal and decimal coins especially in the higher grades.
I would think that the pre decimal values will bounce back as there isn't an infinite number of high grade coins available to be graded and the Fenton coins pretty much flooded the market with top tier coins all at once and bargains were to be had as a result.
The scenario for decimal coins I think is quite different as these are now being graded "en mass" and there is still a rather large pool of high grade Raw coins available for grading.
Time will tell But it certainly has been an "Interesting" year and many of our collections have benefited from these price adjustments over the last year or so with new additions being more affordable :good:
Commonwealth coins are genuinely scarce; even GV and GVI coins in lower Mint State grades are difficult. George Fenton's coins hit the market at a bad time, which has put a real dampener on prices for the time being. But the coins are scarce, and they can't stay this low for long: There simply aren't enough coins out there.
Decimals, on the other hand, are and always will be coins for the collector market. They're not rare (in a holder or out of it), and with a few exceptions they're not investments. I think most new collectors start to work this out once they've been in the game for a few months.
Eric
Yes I agree mate as decimals are a lot easy to get your hand on. We're just in a low point ATM and it should come back soon enough, well I hope so anyway :good:
With the amount of decimal coins now being graded I don't see much hope of their values increasing much in the future with the exception of the 2000 mules, 2000 incused millennium and a handful of other coins maintaining their value.
The later date pre decimals or the 60's coins will probably suffer the same fate But the older pre decimals especially the George V coins can easily recover from this latest downturn as the newer collectors "mature" and start to collect the pre decimal coins.
As Eric stated These coins ARE scarce and the numbers are pretty limited especially in the higher grades and I can't see the possibility of a sudden mass influx of high grade coins being added to the populations any time soon as most of the early pre decimal "Hoards" would by now have been graded.
Not such a bright outlook for the values of decimal coins But the only way that the earlier Pre decimals values to go now is Up .
I hope pre decimals will recover soon... I have spent a small fortune on coins.. (peanuts compared to big collectors) ... I also think there are some very nice coins still in people's drawers.... I have seen 1934,1935,1938,1952,1940 6D some Top pops and high grades (ie MS65) coming out in the last 12 months.. there is a 1938 Shilling in MS67 graded in the last month.. thats the single finest.
Yes I hope the proof market picks up soon or I've lost a lot there :(
It looks like some of the Pre Decimals from the recent large sales of high grade coins are surfacing slowly on the market and are achieving better auction results now. :good:
This is a Good thing and can only help to improve Pre Decimal values but if you haven't taken advantage of the recent "Slump" in values to get those "Bucket List" coins then you may have missed out on some of the recent bargains.:(
There are always raw coin bargains to be had if you do your homework but yes it was
hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel for a while as it was growing dim
Quote from: 'trout' pid='99172' dateline='1475138336'It looks like some of the Pre Decimals from the recent large sales of high grade coins are surfacing slowly on the market and are achieving better auction results now. :good:
This is a Good thing and can only help to improve Pre Decimal values but if you haven't taken advantage of the recent "Slump" in values to get those "Bucket List" coins then you may have missed out on some of the recent bargains.:(
Looks like Universal Coins is flipping the Fenton coins they bought from Noble through their Oct auction. They have set minimum prices all higher than realised prices + BP from Noble.
Just imagine what would happen to the values of both the pre decimals and decimal coins if timbertop decided to sell all his sets at once :(
You will buy all of them and become the new timbertop?
It will be interesting to see the clearance rate in this upcoming Universal Coin auction.
QuoteYou will buy all of them and become the new timbertop?
HeHeHe
I wish :angel:
QuoteIt will be interesting to see the clearance rate in this upcoming Universal Coin auction.
I think that they will do a lot better than they did the last time they were offered for auction :ok:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='99554' dateline='1475753477'Just imagine what would happen to the values of both the pre decimals and decimal coins if timbertop decided to sell all his sets at once :(
Pfff. It isn't his sets that I would be worried about but his spares. He has about 750 images and if you assume he has as many more without images (pre Trueview and whatnot) then he could dump a 1000 choice coins and still keep all his sets.
Worse yet is we had bidding wars Timbertop V Fenton, then we had Timbertop picking up some of Fentons coins; if Timbertop reverses course and either stops buying (like he added the MS67 1938 shilling last month) or starts selling his spares then it would just add to the selling pressure from ex Rare Coin Company stock that has helped depress prices these past 2 years.
Or he could use those spares to make Timbertop(2), Timbertop(3) etc and probably hold not just first place but 2nd, perhaps 3rd and perhaps 5 of the top 10 sets.
I wonder how old timbertop is ?
It would be nice to sell my meagre collection before his hit the market :angel:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='99575' dateline='1475803469'I wonder how old timbertop is ?
It would be nice to sell my meagre collection before his hit the market :angel:
It will take 5 years for the market to digest your Canberra florins.
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='99570' dateline='1475788209'Worse yet is we had bidding wars Timbertop V Fenton,
I don't think it was just those two pushing values up, at least not just against one another. Possibly the best known 1920 dot over top penny (not the Fenton coin) sold at Nobles in 2006 for approx. $30,500 including commission. This coin does not show up in the PCGS population report or registry sets.
Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='99207' dateline='1475150703'Quote from: 'trout' pid='99172' dateline='1475138336'It looks like some of the Pre Decimals from the recent large sales of high grade coins are surfacing slowly on the market and are achieving better auction results now. :good:
This is a Good thing and can only help to improve Pre Decimal values but if you haven't taken advantage of the recent "Slump" in values to get those "Bucket List" coins then you may have missed out on some of the recent bargains.:(
Looks like Universal Coins is flipping the Fenton coins they bought from Noble through their Oct auction. They have set minimum prices all higher than realised prices + BP from Noble.
Any purchases from Universal auction ?
I just had a look at the auction results and it doesn't look like it went too well.
Heaps of coins passed in and no real surprises with the coins that did sell.
I thought some of the coins went cheap where as others went above market value...
Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='99820' dateline='1476183584'Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='99207' dateline='1475150703'Quote from: 'trout' pid='99172' dateline='1475138336'It looks like some of the Pre Decimals from the recent large sales of high grade coins are surfacing slowly on the market and are achieving better auction results now. :good:
This is a Good thing and can only help to improve Pre Decimal values but if you haven't taken advantage of the recent "Slump" in values to get those "Bucket List" coins then you may have missed out on some of the recent bargains.:(
Looks like Universal Coins is flipping the Fenton coins they bought from Noble through their Oct auction. They have set minimum prices all higher than realised prices + BP from Noble.
Any purchases from Universal auction ?
No ausproof. I didn't bid on anything. As trout said, looks like a pretty poor result overall. Low clearance rate. I am only interested in florins lots. And over half passed in. Of the lots that did sell all were under $1k! None of the rarer early KGVs were sold.
I bid on 4 lots in Noble auction and were beaten by Universal in 3 (or may be 4). I can't see why I should now pay the winning bid at the Noble auction, plus their BP, and now Universal's BP plus some more. Considering that the Fenton auction was done by Universal through Noble.
As much as I like to own those, I am happy to save the money for some nice sovereigns. I am not obsessed with PCGS registry tbh. No such thing as a must have for me.
QuoteAs much as I like to own those, I am happy to save the money for some nice sovereigns. I am not obsessed with PCGS registry tbh. No such thing as a must have for me.
It's a buyers market at the moment Mate and anyway with the price of Gold at the moment getting a few sovereigns is not such a bad idea at all :good:
Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='99828' dateline='1476187763'Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='99820' dateline='1476183584'Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='99207' dateline='1475150703'Quote from: 'trout' pid='99172' dateline='1475138336'It looks like some of the Pre Decimals from the recent large sales of high grade coins are surfacing slowly on the market and are achieving better auction results now. :good:
This is a Good thing and can only help to improve Pre Decimal values but if you haven't taken advantage of the recent "Slump" in values to get those "Bucket List" coins then you may have missed out on some of the recent bargains.:(
Looks like Universal Coins is flipping the Fenton coins they bought from Noble through their Oct auction. They have set minimum prices all higher than realised prices + BP from Noble.
Any purchases from Universal auction ?
No ausproof. I didn't bid on anything. As trout said, looks like a pretty poor result overall. Low clearance rate. I am only interested in florins lots. And over half passed in. Of the lots that did sell all were under $1k! None of the rarer early KGVs were sold.
I bid on 4 lots in Noble auction and were beaten by Universal in 3 (or may be 4). I can't see why I should now pay the winning bid at the Noble auction, plus their BP, and now Universal's BP plus some more. Considering that the Fenton auction was done by Universal through Noble.
As much as I like to own those, I am happy to save the money for some nice sovereigns. I am not obsessed with PCGS registry tbh. No such thing as a must have for me.
Logical if you ask me... good rational...there is always next time and prices are only going down...
Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='99830' dateline='1476188452'Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='99828' dateline='1476187763'Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='99820' dateline='1476183584'Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='99207' dateline='1475150703'Quote from: 'trout' pid='99172' dateline='1475138336'It looks like some of the Pre Decimals from the recent large sales of high grade coins are surfacing slowly on the market and are achieving better auction results now. :good:
This is a Good thing and can only help to improve Pre Decimal values but if you haven't taken advantage of the recent "Slump" in values to get those "Bucket List" coins then you may have missed out on some of the recent bargains.:(
Looks like Universal Coins is flipping the Fenton coins they bought from Noble through their Oct auction. They have set minimum prices all higher than realised prices + BP from Noble.
Any purchases from Universal auction ?
No ausproof. I didn't bid on anything. As trout said, looks like a pretty poor result overall. Low clearance rate. I am only interested in florins lots. And over half passed in. Of the lots that did sell all were under $1k! None of the rarer early KGVs were sold.
I bid on 4 lots in Noble auction and were beaten by Universal in 3 (or may be 4). I can't see why I should now pay the winning bid at the Noble auction, plus their BP, and now Universal's BP plus some more. Considering that the Fenton auction was done by Universal through Noble.
As much as I like to own those, I am happy to save the money for some nice sovereigns. I am not obsessed with PCGS registry tbh. No such thing as a must have for me.
Logical if you ask me... good rational...there is always next time and prices are only going down...
I think if you are a very dedicated PCGS set registry collector, then you must go for a top pop coin when it comes on the market. I think you just open yourself up to overpaying or worse exploitation. Would I like that 1915 florin? Sure... but I am just as happy with a rare Victoria shield reverse sovereign.
I see a lot of dissatisfaction for example, when RAM puts out too many $1 coin for people to keep up. So I decided that I am not going to be held hostage like that by insisting on having one of everything. I only buy things I like and there are more things I like that I can buy anyway. Why be forced to buy things you don't?
Sorry for the rant and being off topic... :P but I was a bit put out by the fact that Universal was bid against me in Noble auction.
I picked up a few coins including the 1959m penny in 65rb which I won at my maximum bid which was lucky as I was at work when the auction was taking place. The coin looks really nice in the picture it will be good to see what it looks like in the hand.
Quote from: 'spraggdean23' pid='99862' dateline='1476259787'I picked up a few coins including the 1959m penny in 65rb which I won at my maximum bid which was lucky as I was at work when the auction was taking place. The coin looks really nice in the picture it will be good to see what it looks like in the hand.
Nice work... Got few coins myself ... have to wait and see what they look like in hand..
Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='99832' dateline='1476189926'Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='99830' dateline='1476188452'Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='99828' dateline='1476187763'Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='99820' dateline='1476183584'Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='99207' dateline='1475150703'Looks like Universal Coins is flipping the Fenton coins they bought from Noble through their Oct auction. They have set minimum prices all higher than realised prices + BP from Noble.
Any purchases from Universal auction ?
No ausproof. I didn't bid on anything. As trout said, looks like a pretty poor result overall. Low clearance rate. I am only interested in florins lots. And over half passed in. Of the lots that did sell all were under $1k! None of the rarer early KGVs were sold.
I bid on 4 lots in Noble auction and were beaten by Universal in 3 (or may be 4). I can't see why I should now pay the winning bid at the Noble auction, plus their BP, and now Universal's BP plus some more. Considering that the Fenton auction was done by Universal through Noble.
As much as I like to own those, I am happy to save the money for some nice sovereigns. I am not obsessed with PCGS registry tbh. No such thing as a must have for me.
Logical if you ask me... good rational...there is always next time and prices are only going down...
I think if you are a very dedicated PCGS set registry collector, then you must go for a top pop coin when it comes on the market. I think you just open yourself up to overpaying or worse exploitation. Would I like that 1915 florin? Sure... but I am just as happy with a rare Victoria shield reverse sovereign.
I see a lot of dissatisfaction for example, when RAM puts out too many $1 coin for people to keep up. So I decided that I am not going to be held hostage like that by insisting on having one of everything. I only buy things I like and there are more things I like that I can buy anyway. Why be forced to buy things you don't?
Sorry for the rant and being off topic... :P but I was a bit put out by the fact that Universal was bid against me in Noble auction.
Yep, I've totally moved out of decimals too (except the few rarities, like the mule, wavy, incused, etc). I will be concentrating more on sovs, Commonwealth (which is cheap now), and world gold (which I like).
With Cotton and Co. slabbing so many coins, I'm better off buying them from him for less than the grading fee!
Eric
With the pre decimal prices being so depressed at the moment I think it is an excellent opportunity to grab those coins that were previously way out of our reach.
Pre decimals are a bit like Land, They stopped making them both a long time ago :)
With the mass marketing/grading of decimals that is happening now the values of the graded coins are taking a pummelling due to the abundant supply now available to collectors.
This is a good thing and a bad thing.
It is good that as Eric states you can pick up the slabs now for less than the grading fees for many of the coins.
The bad thing is those graded coins you have bought over the years have now shed much of their value.
I think that the pre decimal market will pick up eventually because there are only so many good coins to go around and most of the newer collectors will eventually expand their collections and start looking at the pre decimals at some stage.
Not too sure what the decimal market is going to do or what the future holds for them.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='99883' dateline='1476305031'It is good that as Eric states you can pick up the slabs now for less than the grading fees for many of the coins.
The bad thing is those graded coins you have bought over the years have now shed much of their value.
I think that the pre decimal market will pick up eventually because there are only so many good coins to go around and most of the newer collectors will eventually expand their collections and start looking at the pre decimals at some stage.
Not too sure what the decimal market is going to do or what the future holds for them.
OK,i'm Blue in the face,but i've been banging on about this for 10 years counting the Stamp Forums,surely there is a massive correction looming(and may have already started) for Slabbed Coins particulary Decimals.I think Pre.-Dec will be OK in the long run for reasons already stated but the days of trying to sell Decimals that are basically worth face for ridiculous $ all because they're in a Slab are coming to an end,IMO.
I think there will always be a market for the top graded decimals at reasonable prices but the run of the mill stuff is and will continue to lose ground I would imagine.
I have a feeling that many collectors are now getting their own coins graded instead of relying solely on buying them pre graded and that is also having a downward effect on prices.
It's not all doom and gloom Guy's, At least We Mob with short arms and long pockets can also afford play the registry game as well now:):yahoo:
Keep in mind that there's a fairly major reset coming in the decimal world when Lizzy falls off the perch. Particularly if her successor is there for half a century or more, which is on the cards.
Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='99901' dateline='1476342706'Keep in mind that there's a fairly major reset coming in the decimal world when Lizzy falls off the perch. Particularly if her successor is there for half a century or more, which is on the cards.
Prince Charles is nearly 70, if the Queen keeps on for another few years then the only way her successor will be there for 50 years is if Prince William is the next king (perhaps Charles might step aside due to Camilla as most would not want her as queen, much like 1937).
Can't see that much of a reset in values, it isn't like when a painter dies and his works increase because the supply dries up. Most collectors already have nice QE2 stuff so the only demand might be a few of the general public after a memento of her reign.
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='99906' dateline='1476343746'Charles might step aside
And you think he won't? He's never really been into the whole king thing anyway, and Camilla just adds another reason to stay out of it.
Now, what happens once we rule a line under Liz? Well, gazing deeply into my crystal ball, I see an accelerated coin removal process, along the lines we're going to see with the banknotes. I also see a major overhaul to make coins cheaper, in line with what they did in NZ. A new monarch would be a great trigger for that I reckon.
And that's before we get into the whole Republic thing, the chances of which go up significantly after Liz leaves the scene.
Whatever happens, they're not making any new ones, whether they're predecimals or not.
That'll teach ya Kel!
Basil wrote
Quotethe days of trying to sell Decimals that are basically worth face for ridiculous $ all because they're in a Slab are coming to an end,IMO.
As the market is now pretty much flooded with PCGS decimal slabs and that collectors are becoming more aware that it isn't that difficult to have their own coins graded instead of simply relying on someone else doing it and paying the premium, There does appear to be a marked decline in the decimal graded coin prices achieved at auction.
I am only going on my personal observations of eBay and other auction results and I have noticed a steady decline in prices achieved over the last 6-12 Months, especially at the top end of the spectrum with the MS/PR70 graded coins.
At one stage there an Australian decimal that achieved a MS/PR70 pretty much had a guaranteed value of $300-$500 at auction, The same coins now are in the $100-$300 range.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='101795' dateline='1479899420'Basil wrote
Quotethe days of trying to sell Decimals that are basically worth face for ridiculous $ all because they're in a Slab are coming to an end,IMO.
As the market is now pretty much flooded with PCGS decimal slabs and that collectors are becoming more aware that it isn't that difficult to have their own coins graded instead of simply relying on someone else doing it and paying the premium, There does appear to be a marked decline in the decimal graded coin prices achieved at auction.
I am only going on my personal observations of eBay and other auction results and I have noticed a steady decline in prices achieved over the last 6-12 Months, especially at the top end of the spectrum with the MS/PR70 graded coins.
At one stage there an Australian decimal that achieved a MS/PR70 pretty much had a guaranteed value of $300-$500 at auction, The same coins now are in the $100-$300 range.
A year ago (maybe less) there were about as many PCGS decimals as pre decimals on fleabay, now there are over 3 times as many decimals. Why would you settle for a typical grade coin when the higher grades now sell for what a typical coin sold for when the supply was much lower. At this rate only MS71:to_pick_ones_nose_eat: decimals will be worth slabbing.
I think you will find that the timing of the major influx of graded coins on the market will coincide nicely with the time that our Mr Cotton received his mass submission back from PCGS. :angel:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='101814' dateline='1479943547'I think you will find that the timing of the major influx of graded coins on the market will coincide nicely with the time that our Mr Cotton received his mass submission back from PCGS. :angel:
I suggest that we could find out what he grades in bulk and steer clear of those coins.He prefers bulk submissions and obviously there are some coins that he cant get in bulk which to me would be the coins to target
Just because Mr Cotton has a preference for bulk submissions doesn't mean that the individual coins have to be in bulk numbers, as long as there are enough coins in the submission it doesn't matter.
Lets face it , These bulk submissions have virtually destroyed the opportunity for small operators in the slabbing game to compete.
The Big operators get substantial breaks in the grading fees and shipping fees that the small operators don't have access to and as long as the big operators are making even only a small percentage in profit they will continue to make these mass submissions even though they know that they are flooding the market.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='101819' dateline='1479946687'even though they know that they are flooding the market.
IMO this has always been the problem with paying silly amounts for slabbed decimals, there was always the potential for an oversupply of certain dates in high grade.
Quote from: 'Goldseeker' pid='99916' dateline='1476349293'That'll teach ya Kel!
you've lost me Bruce .
me too! :yeah_that:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='101814' dateline='1479943547'I think you will find that the timing of the major influx of graded coins on the market will coincide nicely with the time that our Mr Cotton received his mass submission back from PCGS. :angel:
:stinker:
http://www.ebay.com.au/sch/cottonandcoaustralia/m.html?item=272461197859&hash=item3f6ff3f223%3Ag%3AsXMAAOSw5cNYNpta&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2562
Did you notice that everything in a slab regardless of the grade is called FDC, What a tosser :laugh2::laugh2:
I'm pretty sure if you had to list 1,900 items a bit of copy and paste may go on
Quote from: 'Cockatoo Coins' pid='101871' dateline='1480038104'I'm pretty sure if you had to list 1,900 items a bit of copy and paste may go on
I think that the FDC in the listing is deliberate and NOT a mistake at all :dodgy:
There are coins as low as 64 that's listed as FDC. :dodgy:
Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='101873' dateline='1480039611'There are coins as low as 64 that's listed as FDC. :dodgy:
For someone with such a large "Footprint" in the slabbed decimals market this is simply not good enough.
This Bloke is either "Clueless" or is deceptively listing these coins and I don't think he is stupid he is probably just "Ethically Challenged" :angel::laugh2:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='101874' dateline='1480041386'Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='101873' dateline='1480039611'There are coins as low as 64 that's listed as FDC. :dodgy:
For someone with such a large "Footprint" in the slabbed decimals market this is simply not good enough.
This Bloke is either "Clueless" or is deceptively listing these coins and I don't think he is stupid he is probably just "Ethically Challenged" :angel::laugh2:
As always its buyer beware and the buyer in the end can make up their own mind
i heard about this fifty cents a while ago
$799 for a MS66 1966 business strike (?) 50 c
http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/1966-MS66-Australian-Fifty-Cent-50c-PCGS-GRADED-FDC-UNC-/272427946154?hash=item3f6df890aa:g:5SQAAOSw44BYEUH6
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='101882' dateline='1480055143'i heard about this fifty cents a while ago
$799 for a MS66 1966 business strike (?) 50 c
http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/1966-MS66-Australian-Fifty-Cent-50c-PCGS-GRADED-FDC-UNC-/272427946154?hash=item3f6df890aa:g:5SQAAOSw44BYEUH6
Only slightly higher than bluesheet value and good on him if he gets it because I have a few of these too
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='101882' dateline='1480055143'i heard about this fifty cents a while ago
$799 for a MS66 1966 business strike (?) 50 c
http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/1966-MS66-Australian-Fifty-Cent-50c-PCGS-GRADED-FDC-UNC-/272427946154?hash=item3f6df890aa:g:5SQAAOSw44BYEUH6
That coin doesnt look 66 to me.
http://images.pcgs.com/Source/52103859_max.jpg
Grading looks quite generous for some other items also.
I think some of these people that do bulk submissions get a better deal just to look after them because if I submitted them there's no way the coin would grade as high :blink:
does Hong Kong PCGS grade differently?
should we be sending our stuff to Hong Kong?
I have noticed that the grades from Hong Kong are extremely generous and many of these PCGS cert#'s with the dual slab images are well overgraded.
I do remember seeing one of these with a Wedding set coin that had a MS69 grade and a dirty big scratch on the coin.
These super submissions out of Hong Kong are going to do some serious damage to PCGS's reputation and to the values of Australian Decimals as a whole .
This may also be the reason why PCGS graded coins are now not accepted in the NGC registries.
Quote from: 'ausjack' pid='101891' dateline='1480067554'I think some of these people that do bulk submissions get a better deal just to look after them because if I submitted them there's no way the coin would grade as high :blink:
I think you have something there AJ.
When a customer repeatedly sends in submissions worth hundreds of thousands there is bound to be preferential treatment involved .
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='101893' dateline='1480068387'does Hong Kong PCGS grade differently?
should we be sending our stuff to Hong Kong?
I'll let you know when my last submission comes back
Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='101897' dateline='1480071308'Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='101893' dateline='1480068387'does Hong Kong PCGS grade differently?
should we be sending our stuff to Hong Kong?
I'll let you know when my last submission comes back
Why did you send them to Hong Kong and not to California ?
Quote from: 'trout' pid='101898' dateline='1480072324'Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='101897' dateline='1480071308'Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='101893' dateline='1480068387'does Hong Kong PCGS grade differently?
should we be sending our stuff to Hong Kong?
I'll let you know when my last submission comes back
Why did you send them to Hong Kong and not to California ?
Sent with Michael Cotton and at $20 per coin cheaper I thought I'd give him a go
QuoteSent with Michael Cotton and at $20 per coin cheaper I thought I'd give him a go
So how much per coin are we talking here and how much were you paying before?
When I send my own in to PCGS it usually costs me on average $25 per coin for Modern's and $30 per coin for World Economy.
maybe postage too
i would be concerned about the reliability of the postal system in Hong Kong
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='101921' dateline='1480124283'maybe postage too
i would be concerned about the reliability of the postal system in Hong Kong
I get quite a lot of my cheap electrical fittings and stuff from China, Anderson plugs and the like and the postage from there is actually faster and more reliable than Aus post :ok:
I would be far more concerned about the grading standards from the PCGS Hong Kong office.
You may get a generous grade but once someone looks up the cert# and sees the twin slab images they will know where the coin was graded and value the coin accordingly :ok:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='101930' dateline='1480125760'You may get a generous grade but once someone looks up the cert# and sees the twin slab images they will know where the coin was graded and value the coin accordingly :ok:
Hey trout, what are the PCGS cert numbers allocated to HK office?
Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='101951' dateline='1480139355'Quote from: 'trout' pid='101930' dateline='1480125760'You may get a generous grade but once someone looks up the cert# and sees the twin slab images they will know where the coin was graded and value the coin accordingly :ok:
Hey trout, what are the PCGS cert numbers allocated to HK office?
The allocated numbers will come in handy if PCGS edits the images (either retrospectively for existing images or as a procedural change for future images) so that they are indistinguishable.
Perhaps Walter or another dealer should let PCGS management know that HK has a public perception problem with loose grading standards. Once a company loses its reputation then it is hard to get it untarnished.
QuoteHey trout, what are the PCGS cert numbers allocated to HK office?
I think that the cert# are automatically generated from the main database for both California and Hong Kong and are indistinguishable.
QuoteThe allocated numbers will come in handy if PCGS edits the images (either retrospectively for existing images or as a procedural change for future images) so that they are indistinguishable.
Perhaps Walter or another dealer should let PCGS management know that HK has a public perception problem with loose grading standards. Once a company loses its reputation then it is hard to get it untarnished.
They had better do something pretty fast because there is NO way I would put my money down on a HK graded coin unless I saw it "In Hand" at the moment.
If PCGS just change the imaging format for HK graded coins to match what is coming out of the US then every newly graded PCGS coin will then be suspect.
The ONLY way that this can be addressed is for EVERY HK graded coin to be recalled and regraded to the standards that are applied in the US.
Before anyone jumps down my neck telling me this is all BS, Have a real good look at the stuff coming out of HK lately and then get back to me :ok:
I had a really good look today at the pre-decimal coins that were recently graded. Before you say that the Hong Kong coins are overgraded do the research. I spent three or four hours today going through the cert numbers one by one using the cert verification on the Pcgs website. From all the coins I went through from the particular seller who has had these coins graded in Hong Kong the high grades were few and far in between and it was also quite easy to see when he had sent full or part rolls of certain dates in. For example he looks to have sent in a full roll of 1948 shillings and the highest grade he got for that particular date was MS64. If you added up all the grades and got the average the average grade received would be quite low. There was even a decent amount of pre-decimal coins that did not even make MS for example coins like a 1957 shilling in AU58. I am not really interested in slabbed decimals so I just stuck to the pre-decimal coins. I did come across some Indian coins graded MS66 red however I can't remember what they were and my head is still sore from typing numbers over and over again.
MS64 for a 1948 shilling is not too shabby But regardless of the grades achieved were they accurate ?
Just because a submission doesn't get super high grades doesn't amount to much, It all depends on what coins were sent in.
For the coins I took a good look at like some 1961 and 1963 halfpennies the grading seemed accurate although there was some spotting on some of the copper coins which is probably normal though.
I haven't really looked at any of the predecimal stuff coming out of Hong Kong so I don't have an opinion either way with those.
A lot of the decimals recently graded there give me cause for concern though.
I have 23 registry sets of PCGS graded coins and many others that are not in sets and if the standards are slipping with the coins getting graded at Hong Kong So will the value of my collections go down the gurgler with it.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='101965' dateline='1480147567'MS64 for a 1948 shilling is not too shabby But regardless of the grades achieved were they accurate ?
Just because a submission doesn't get super high grades doesn't amount to much, It all depends on what coins were sent in.
For 1948 shillings a MS64 grade is pretty ordinary (it is the most common grade with 54 slabbed at that level), if that is the best a roll gets then I doubt the roll was overgraded. If it is the cotton coins coming out of HK then I've purchased a few of them and have not been disappointed.
Perhaps it is more a problem with decimals?
I do wonder why they show the coins in the slab when you check out their numbers on PCGS lookup. Surely they took hi-res images for their "fingerprint" scans of all pre 1965 coins?
Despite the pitting and corrosion on the rims and this being a Specimen coin this was graded MS68.
This is not a HK graded coin , this was graded in the States.
(http://www.australian-coins.net/gallery/albums/userpics/10019/crook_cook6.jpg)
I would be very reluctant to second-guess PCGS and their grading without seeing lots of Hong Kong coins in hand to make a judgement. Moreover, they rotate the graders between the three grading venues, so you have the US graders in Hong Kong from time-to-time, too. I haven't seen any evidence of overgrading by one office over another, in any case, and I find it hard to believe PCGS would jeopardise their reputation in doing so.
There's lots of talk in the media of being in a "post-truth" world, with conspiracy theories and BS being spread all over the internet. I'd hate to think that some of that is leaching into this forum too.
I have to accept in the first instance that PCGS grades coins accurately, in general. It's easy to look at a couple of coin pictures that "don't look right" and make a quick, uninformed judgement - but I don't think it's wise to blindly believe all these conspiracies, such as PCGS overgrades for bulk submitters, or Hong Kong overgrades, or big dealers get "special grades". We have to let that go, because if rumours are left to spread, it could undermine PCGS and the numismatic community in general.
Eric
There is NO conspiracy here, Just observations.
The quality of the PCGS service has gone somewhat downhill over that last year from my own observations and my sampling is only tiny compared to the big picture.
If I can find problems in such a small sample it stands to reason that there must be many more out there.
What do you propose if we see something that just isn't "Right" ?
Do we just ignore it and "Hope" that things will get better?
Or do we be proactive and try to address the issue ?
Shoving our heads in the sand and ignoring things has never been a good idea :ok:
With most companies that get to the top of their game Complacency can creep into the organization and become a real problem.
Many of us have spent a considerable amount of money getting our coins graded and encapsulated by PCGS and if they continue down the road they are traveling now it will eventually erode the values of our collections.
So once again NO conspiracy here, Just Concern :ok:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='101986' dateline='1480216341'The quality of the PCGS service has gone somewhat downhill over that last year from my own observations and my sampling is only tiny compared to the big picture.
If I can find problems in such a small sample it stands to reason that there must be many more out there.
Brace yourself, trout, but that comment is totally wrong. The smaller the sample the easier it is to dismiss as statistical noise.
I'm not asking for collectors to put their heads in the sand, but I am asking for evidence-based criticism. All you have mentioned is your poor experience on what you admit is a small sample. This is not evidence, and if your belief that Hong Kong overgrades coins is based on your experience with a this small sample of coins, then you have undermined your entire argument.
spraggdean2 made a very good point in spending hours in exploring Michael Cotton's submission, looking for overgrading across a large number of coins. It was for pre-decimals and you're talking about decimals, so maybe it's a bit different, but spraggdean2's experience should not be dismissed just because he is not as vocal as you.
Moreover, his sample was larger than yours. The bigger the sample, the more accurate the conclusions you can draw, so I would sooner be inclined to take seriously the results of Dean's analysis than yours.
The last step would be to look at the percentage of overgraded coins in submissions from USA and then compare the percentages between USA and Hong Kong, and see if they're different. Now that would be a real evidence-based analysis.
Eric
PS, I'm not trying to be difficult here. I like you trout, but you mentioned a long time ago that you wanted more diverse views on this forum, and that is one thing we both agree with.
I haven't bought any of Cottons offerings, I much rather send my own Decimals for grading.
I have however seen some of the wedding set coins that Cotton has for sale on eBay and there are examples of overgrading amongst them.
One coin in particular I think r9453 posted an image of on this forum had a big scratch on the coin and yet it was still graded 69 .
I am concerned about this But if I was to email or ring PCGS about this I would probably be just ignored as I am such a small customer.
However if someone like yourself and a few other of the bigger players voiced their concerns then Maybe just Maybe PCGS will do something to resolve this.
I personally have had nothing but problems with PCGS this year From wrongly attributed coins right through to having coins ruined while they were at PCGS.
I have only sent 12 submissions to PCGS this year that had a total of 117 coins graded.
I had issues with 4 of these submissions which is quite a lot considering I only sent 12.
Maybe I am just being "fussy" But I pay good money for this service and I expect consistency and accuracy , This has not been the case.
QuoteThe bigger the sample, the more accurate the conclusions you can draw
I agree. A small sample is likely to have higher variance (either way) than a large sample.
I saw trout's comment and thought exactly that he was wrong in his conclusion about a small sample being an indicator.
Quote from: 'JeffH' pid='101996' dateline='1480221229'QuoteThe bigger the sample, the more accurate the conclusions you can draw
I agree. A small sample is likely to have higher variance (either way) than a large sample.
I saw trout's comment and thought exactly that he was wrong in his conclusion about a small sample being an indicator.
OK,Righto, No Worries.
All that has occurred is multiple isolated incidents that have only affected one customer.
Nothing to see here PCGS is Perfect :angel:
Fat chance I am swallowing that theory :ok:
Ever since I first heard of individual collectors concerns about PCGS results they have been dismissed as aberrations. If trout is not in a position to raise concerns then who is?
Quote from: 'r9453' pid='102001' dateline='1480222191'Ever since I first heard of individual collectors concerns about PCGS results they have been dismissed as aberrations. If trout is not in a position to raise concerns then who is?
The bigger dealers have a vested interest to ensure that nobody rocks the boat, Regardless of whither the concerns are founded or not.
It's simply bad for business.
I KNOW what I have seen this year from PCGS and as a result I wont be sending any more coins to PCGS to be graded, It isn't worth the time, effort and expense just to be disappointed with the service once more.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='102003' dateline='1480222830'The bigger dealers have a vested interest to ensure that nobody rocks the boat, Regardless of whither the concerns are founded or not.
It's simply bad for business.
Word. :i_agree:
Getting back to the OP - PCGS have a big influence in the pre-decimal market and it concerns me since I now have over 200 coins in their slabs. At this stage I will continue with my collection but the experience of trout (and others) is a sobering influence and gives me pause for thought.
Quote from: 'drakesterling' pid='101983' dateline='1480214513'but I don't think it's wise to blindly believe all these conspiracies, such as PCGS overgrades for bulk submitters, , or big dealers get "special grades".
Eric
I have concerns about HK (like why no hi-res images) but the other 2 points seem highly unlikely. It would need the graders ALL to agree to engage in an unethical conspiracy with management and for the "special customers" big orders to have identifying features to give the bonus point to. Only takes ONE compromising email or ONE whistleblower to reveal the unethical (and probably illegal) act and the damage to the companies reputation would be fatal (including a class action by irate purchasers of their slabs).
PCGS margins are HUGE, they make a fat profit every year and they would be crazy to jeopardize the golden goose just to add a few million more to the bottom line.
That being said they do need to tighten their management of their grading operations. Too many wrong labels, too many under/over grades and too long a wait to grade are all things that make for unhappy customers (and fishes).
For what is worth I did a comparison of 20 1948 shillings which were obviously graded in the USA some time ago. The PCGS cert numbers are 26063741 to 26063760. The average grade of these 20 coins turned out to be 62.65 however there was one coin which graded MS61 and one which graded AU58. I then did a comparison against the 40 1948 shillings which were just graded and the average grade was 63.10 however there was less variance in the grades with the ones that were just graded as they all graded from MS62 to MS64 which is that to be expected from a mint roll? This would not be accepted as a proper statistical test as the sample size is different and the coins were probably graded a few years apart under different environmental conditions.
I really don't think that the predecimals are the problem, at least I haven't noticed any major problems .
In fact I think that PCGS has been somewhat harsh on a few of my predecimals if anything.
It's the decimals that I feel are where the problems are.
The fact is Decimal coins are now what new collectors are concentrating on and despite a fairly harsh period of price adjustment are a large part of the Market and from what I have seen that Market is getting stronger.
PCGS need to tighten up on its grading on Decimals and to ensure that they are graded accurately and also attributed correctly as well in future.
As a collector it IS a large expense getting my coins graded and I NEED to be able to have them done without any mistakes otherwise I am just wasting my money.
The "mechanical errors" , I call them for what they are "Stuff Ups" are becoming more frequent, this needs to STOP altogether :ok:
The Very VERY Best way to ensure that nobody complains is for PCGS to get it RIGHT simple as that :ok:
I'd have to agree with you Trout about the Mechanical Error stuff ups. Have seen a few on fleabay in those kiss of death slabs that show nothing to be worthy of that designation (no circular scratch from being the end of a roll or other visible defect).
I'm wondering if any have been cracked out and resubmitted and perhaps given a healthy MS grade?
Quote from: 'trout' pid='102010' dateline='1480233447'I really don't think that the predecimals are the problem, at least I haven't noticed any major problems .
In fact I think that PCGS has been somewhat harsh on a few of my predecimals if anything.
It's the decimals that I feel are where the problems are.
The fact is Decimal coins are now what new collectors are concentrating on and despite a fairly harsh period of price adjustment are a large part of the Market and from what I have seen that Market is getting stronger.
PCGS need to tighten up on its grading on Decimals and to ensure that they are graded accurately and also attributed correctly as well in future.
As a collector it IS a large expense getting my coins graded and I NEED to be able to have them done without any mistakes otherwise I am just wasting my money.
The "mechanical errors" , I call them for what they are "Stuff Ups" are becoming more frequent, this needs to STOP altogether :ok:
The Very VERY Best way to ensure that nobody complains is for PCGS to get it RIGHT simple as that :ok:
Yes they should get it right in an ideal world however when human beings are involved there is always going to be plenty of mistakes. In saying that if I was in you're shoes I would not of been very happy at all with the outcome you received with the coins that got fingerprints on them while they were at PCGS being graded.
QuoteIn saying that if I was in you're shoes I would not of been happy with the outcome you received with the coins that got fingerprints on them while they were at PCGS being graded.
That was just the straw that broke the camel back Mate and it is only one of Many issues that I have had with PCGS.
Up until this year I only had the occasional Stuff Up and I just "rolled with the punches" and hoped for a better outcome next time.
This year it just got out of control :cray:
I sent my last submission to PCGS August this year and that is the very last submission that they will get from me, Enough is enough I can't be bothered being screwed around by PCGS anymore.
I sent my first submission to NGC at about the same time as I sent that last one to PCGS and I had absolutely NO problems with it and it was also back in my hands Way before the PCGS submission was.
Since then I have sent another 90 coins to NGC 60 of them have already been done and I am just waiting on the last 30 coins now.
The grading has been good, NO "Mechanical errors" the turnaround times are pretty fast, the customer service has been excellent and on top of all that NGC is more competitively priced than PCGS.
For Me the decision to move over to NGC is a NO Brainer :yahoo:
How times change. It's not that long ago when any derogatory remark made about the generally accepted leading light of TPG's would be defended vigorously and to the hilt by most who comment on such matters on this forum, and at the same time the so called pretender to the throne would be nearly always referred to as inferior and kicked all over the park.
I can understand how individuals in any form of endeavour will occasionally feel poorly treated and so vote with their feet, but without clear and accurate results from proper sampling and consideration, I would think the general population may find it hard to justify changing allegiances in any of the cut and thrust that life throws up. One thing is clear though, it doesn't take much discontent and innuendo before the white ants assemble :angel:
Quoteand at the same time the so called pretender to the throne would be nearly always referred to as inferior and kicked all over the park.
If you are referring to NGC with that then I must say that I have never "Bagged" NGC in fact I have always considered them to just as good as PCGS.
I have "Copped it" on many occasions because I have dared to say that a NGC graded coin is just as well graded as a PCGS coin.
I have always found it peculiar that in Australia NGC is considered to be second rate compared to PCGS where in the US they are both considered to be on a par and that NGC actually has a better reputation for grading Non US coins.
I am still firmly convinced that any coin in either a PCGS or a NGC slab will have a far better chance of being genuine, problem free and at the grade that is written on the slab Than any RAW coin being offered on eBay or from a dealer anyday.
I am simply more than mildly dissatisfied with the standards and the service being provided by PCGS So Yes I have "Voted with my feet" and am now using the services of NGC :ok:
Trout
Being new at this just had a look at the NGC site and there are varying degrees of membership.
Can you offer any more advice on what level is best. As I said I'm pretty new at this and over time will be getting my coins graded
Quote from: 'gabby' pid='102032' dateline='1480278134'Trout
Being new at this just had a look at the NGC site and there are varying degrees of membership.
Can you offer any more advice on what level is best. As I said I'm pretty new at this and over time will be getting my coins graded
If you are only going to get a few coins a year graded I recommend that you get Eric to submit them for you.
This would be more cost effective for small numbers of coins with the added benefit of the coins being assessed by Eric to make sure that they will grade OK as well.
If you intend to send your own submissions in them make sure that you are confident that the coins haven't been cleaned in any way and that you also have confidence in your own grading abilities.
There is nothing more disappointing than getting your grading results with boddybagged coins or lower grades than you expected.
Trust Me, Been there and done that :cray:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='102033' dateline='1480278962'Quote from: 'gabby' pid='102032' dateline='1480278134'Trout
Being new at this just had a look at the NGC site and there are varying degrees of membership.
Can you offer any more advice on what level is best. As I said I'm pretty new at this and over time will be getting my coins graded
If you are only going to get a few coins a year graded I recommend that you get Eric to submit them for you.
This would be more cost effective for small numbers of coins with the added benefit of the coins being assessed by Eric to make sure that they will grade OK as well.
If you intend to send your own submissions in them make sure that you are confident that the coins haven't been cleaned in any way and that you also have confidence in your own grading abilities.
There is nothing more disappointing than getting your grading results with boddybagged coins or lower grades than you expected.
Trust Me, Been there and done that :cray:
Thanks for the advice. On that I think I will use a 3rd party (Eric) for the time being until I get more confident with it all
QuoteThanks for the advice. On that I think I will use a 3rd party (Eric) for the time being until I get more confident with it all
Before you send them away have a good try at grading them yourself and write your grading results down on a piece of paper.
When you get your grading results back from Eric you can compare the two and see where you are at with your own grading.
I must be a bit weird because I still do this before I send a submission in, It helps me to Hone my own grading skills and is also a fun thing to do at the same time.
After all if it wasn't Fun why would we bother :good:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='102035' dateline='1480280001'QuoteThanks for the advice. On that I think I will use a 3rd party (Eric) for the time being until I get more confident with it all
Before you send them away have a good try at grading them yourself and write your grading results down on a piece of paper.
When you get your grading results back from Eric you can compare the two and see where you are at with your own grading.
I must be a bit weird because I still do this before I send a submission in, It helps me to Hone my own grading skills and is also a fun thing to do at the same time.
After all if it wasn't Fun why would we bother :good:
I'll give it a go. As you say you can only get better at it and maybe not so many failures on submission
Thanks again
QuotePS, I'm not trying to be difficult here. I like you trout, but you mentioned a long time ago that you wanted more diverse views on this forum, and that is one thing we both agree with.
All is Good mate, I also Like and admire what you do.
We have all got different views and ideas on Many things and that is Healthy.
It would be a very Sad and booring thing if we ALL had the same views and opinions. :)
Quote from: 'autocoupler' pid='102027' dateline='1480253850'How times change. It's not that long ago when any derogatory remark made about the generally accepted leading light of TPG's would be defended vigorously and to the hilt by most who comment on such matters on this forum, and at the same time the so called pretender to the throne would be nearly always referred to as inferior and kicked all over the park.
I wouldn't read too much into it. For the few (very noisy) people here having problems there's many hundreds going along smoothly who have better things to do than post up "things are fine with my PCGS orders".
Quote from: 'trout' pid='102031' dateline='1480274580'If you are referring to NGC with that then I must say that I have never "Bagged" NGC in fact I have always considered them to just as good as PCGS.
Not keeping score, don't know who said what, and not interested in digging up old posts to find out. But, I do remember a perceived majority viewpoint that leant more one way than the other which is why I used the term "most who comment". Not suggesting the majority viewpoint has changed, more a generalisation of viewpoints from the past compared to some that are being expressed more recently.
Quote from: 'autocoupler' pid='102043' dateline='1480290829'Quote from: 'trout' pid='102031' dateline='1480274580'If you are referring to NGC with that then I must say that I have never "Bagged" NGC in fact I have always considered them to just as good as PCGS.
Not keeping score, don't know who said what, and not interested in digging up old posts to find out. But, I do remember a perceived majority viewpoint that leant more one way than the other which is why I used the term "most who comment". Not suggesting the majority viewpoint has changed, more a generalisation of viewpoints from the past compared to some that are being expressed more recently.
All is Good mate :ok:
Call me a troll if you will, but I find it quite hilarious that the whole TPG thing was designed to remove doubt (at a huge cost, I might add), and is now becoming the source of doubt itself.
Personally, I think a better path would have been for everyone to just learn to grade for themselves, and not outsource the responsibility to unknown parties.
Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='102048' dateline='1480312923'Personally, I think a better path would have been for everyone to just learn to grade for themselves, and not outsource the responsibility to unknown parties.
The whole point of TPG is so that you can transact sight unseen. Often it is not possible to grade based on photos alone and without coin in hand.
Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='102048' dateline='1480312923'Call me a troll if you will, but I find it quite hilarious that the whole TPG thing was designed to remove doubt (at a huge cost, I might add), and is now becoming the source of doubt itself.
Personally, I think a better path would have been for everyone to just learn to grade for themselves, and not outsource the responsibility to unknown parties.
Who is it causing doubt for.Most of the collectors I know don't have a problem with it.The trade for PCGS slabbed coins is rolling along nicely thank you very much.I personally find NGC coins harder to move even if they are on par with PCGS in some countries
Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='102048' dateline='1480312923'Call me a troll if you will, but I find it quite hilarious that the whole TPG thing was designed to remove doubt (at a huge cost, I might add), and is now becoming the source of doubt itself.
Personally, I think a better path would have been for everyone to just learn to grade for themselves, and not outsource the responsibility to unknown parties.
Doesn't matter how good a grader you are you can only apply your grading skills with the coin in hand.
With a large percentage of coins purchased from interstate or overseas you cannot go in person to inspect the coin and you are relying on the sellers objectivity, honesty, skill and experience in describing a coin. Considering the number of times professional dealers have sold me raw coins that don't meet expectations it is nice to know that the option to buy slabbed coins removes 99% of the problem.
How good are your grading skills when working only from photos? Unless the images are very good you will not spot fine hairlines or other body bagging issues. You will also have Buckley's Chance in accurately telling if say a threepence is MS65 or MS68 (and worth 100X to 1000X)
QuotePersonally, I think a better path would have been for everyone to just learn to grade for themselves, and not outsource the responsibility to unknown parties.
I think that many collectors don't even look too closely at the actual coins themselves these days and simply rely on what is printed on the slab.
I think it is very important that collectors learn how to grade accurately for themselves, This applies to ALL coins not just slabbed coins otherwise they are buying their coins blindly and have to rely on someone Else's opinion instead of making an educated assessment themselves.
Even with coins that have the same grade there are differences and some coins are better than others, If you are able to grade then you will be able to "Cherry Pick" the better coins from the same grades :good: :)
Quote from: 'trout' pid='102054' dateline='1480318686'I think that many collectors don't even look too closely at the actual coins themselves these days and simply rely on what is printed on the slab.
That's kind of my point.
If you take a hundred coins and examine them, anyone can pick out the best and worst.
But a hundred identical slabs? Most people won't even look at them. Which might be fine for investors dabbling in coins, but not for collectors, especially newcomers.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='102033' dateline='1480278962'Quote from: 'gabby' pid='102032' dateline='1480278134'Trout
Being new at this just had a look at the NGC site and there are varying degrees of membership.
Can you offer any more advice on what level is best. As I said I'm pretty new at this and over time will be getting my coins graded
If you are only going to get a few coins a year graded I recommend that you get Eric to submit them for you.
This would be more cost effective for small numbers of coins with the added benefit of the coins being assessed by Eric to make sure that they will grade OK as well.
If you intend to send your own submissions in them make sure that you are confident that the coins haven't been cleaned in any way and that you also have confidence in your own grading abilities.
There is nothing more disappointing than getting your grading results with boddybagged coins or lower grades than you expected.
Trust Me, Been there and done that :cray:
Thanks for the plug trout. I really appreciate that both of us can have a vigorous debate and still come together afterwards to have a beer.
Eric
Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='102048' dateline='1480312923'Call me a troll if you will, but I find it quite hilarious that the whole TPG thing was designed to remove doubt (at a huge cost, I might add), and is now becoming the source of doubt itself.
Personally, I think a better path would have been for everyone to just learn to grade for themselves, and not outsource the responsibility to unknown parties.
It is true that people should learn to grade, but there is no such thing as a "grading standard" until someone defines it, which is what PCGS has done.
When PCGS was first being introduced in Australia, Klaus Ford and others would constantly suggest that people should learn how to grade instead of relying on a third-party services (good advice, of course). But when a dozen different dealers would give you different grades on the same coin, it made it difficult for collectors to learn how to grade at all. How was a collector to learn how to grade when everyone graded differently?
What PCGS has done is define the standard and allow people to see enough consistently-graded coins to learn how to grade. It's not perfect, and there'll always be disagreement, but PCGS (and NGC) is broadly a positive for our hobby, both here and overseas.
Eric
Quote from: 'drakesterling' pid='102065' dateline='1480372665'What PCGS has done is define the standard and allow people to see enough consistently-graded coins to learn how to grade.
Yes, I'll grant you that. But as you say, its not perfect. Of course it can never be, but the way I see it, uninformed and lazy buyers simply abdicate their responsibility to judge for themselves, and buy the package, not the contents.
Of course, as a collector of errors, which are for the most part never ever going to see the inside of a slab, I can sit back and snigger at all the hair-splitting. But people throw insane amounts of money at these things, and I can't help but feel a lot of them are going to come to grief.
The only guaranteed winners in this are the TPG's, I reckon. :dodgy:
Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='102067' dateline='1480377675'Quote from: 'drakesterling' pid='102065' dateline='1480372665'What PCGS has done is define the standard and allow people to see enough consistently-graded coins to learn how to grade.
Yes, I'll grant you that. But as you say, its not perfect. Of course it can never be, but the way I see it, uninformed and lazy buyers simply abdicate their responsibility to judge for themselves, and buy the package, not the contents.
Of course, as a collector of errors, which are for the most part never ever going to see the inside of a slab, I can sit back and snigger at all the hair-splitting. But people throw insane amounts of money at these things, and I can't help but feel a lot of them are going to come to grief.
The only guaranteed winners in this are the TPG's, I reckon. :dodgy:
Only truly rare coins will be ok at these high prices. PR70 decimal coins: overhyped. An MS66 George V sovereign: This is genuinely difficult, and can be had for the same price as a PR69 round fifty cent. I know which I'd prefer.
Eric
QuoteThanks for the plug trout. I really appreciate that both of us can have a vigorous debate and still come together afterwards to have a beer.
That's because we are Both on the same side Mate :):ok:
We both agree that both PCGS and NGC are a breath of fresh air and are a far far better way for collectors to have confidence in what they are buying than the old wink, wink Nudge, Nudge dealer/seller grades in the not so distant past.
The chances of getting a "lemon" when buying a top tier TPG graded coin are very small, BUT there IS a chance of it happening, Even you would have to concede that this can and does happen on occasion.
My concerns are that from my own observations and from a few coins that I have seen lately that have been graded recently by PCGS is that the very stringent guidelines they have in place are becoming eroded and the once very rare occurrence of a badly graded/attributed coin slipping through the "safety net" has now become Not so rare.
I am Not alone in this thinking, NGC will now NO longer accept PCGS or any other TPG graded coin into their set registries and their reasons for this decision is the lowering of grading standards of the other companies.
Many may consider me a Mad Man just barking at the Moon with my concerns, That's fine it really doesn't bother me But can you say the same in regards to NGC's Mark Salzberg?
This is a quote from a recent announcement from NGC regarding the non acceptance of non NGC graded coins in the set registries.
http://coins.www.collectors-society.com/news/ViewArticle.aspx?IDArticle=5627&NGC-Registry
QuoteWhen the NGC Registry was started, it allowed participants to build sets that included coins graded by other services, which were treated equally to NGC-certified coins when points were assigned and sets were ranked. After seeing the dramatic changes at other grading services over the last few years, however, I am no longer confident that their current standards are equal to their former standards or to those that NGC has maintained for nearly 30 years.
Like I said we are Both on the same side here, admittedly I am not as diplomatic or conservative as yourself But I do share the same passion for this hobby and if I see anything that has the potential to do the hobby harm I will "Speak Up" :ok: :angel:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='102070' dateline='1480387568'I am not as diplomatic
GASP! Who'da thunk it? :angel:
(http://bartsblackboard.com/files/2009/11/The-Simpsons-s04e21-Marge-in-Chains.jpg)
HeHe
Love It :)
Quote from: 'trout' pid='102070' dateline='1480387568'QuoteThanks for the plug trout. I really appreciate that both of us can have a vigorous debate and still come together afterwards to have a beer.
That's because we are Both on the same side Mate :):ok:
We both agree that both PCGS and NGC are a breath of fresh air and are a far far better way for collectors to have confidence in what they are buying than the old wink, wink Nudge, Nudge dealer/seller grades in the not so distant past.
The chances of getting a "lemon" when buying a top tier TPG graded coin are very small, BUT there IS a chance of it happening, Even you would have to concede that this can and does happen on occasion.
My concerns are that from my own observations and from a few coins that I have seen lately that have been graded recently by PCGS is that the very stringent guidelines they have in place are becoming eroded and the once very rare occurrence of a badly graded/attributed coin slipping through the "safety net" has now become Not so rare.
I am Not alone in this thinking, NGC will now NO longer accept PCGS or any other TPG graded coin into their set registries and their reasons for this decision is the lowering of grading standards of the other companies.
Many may consider me a Mad Man just barking at the Moon with my concerns, That's fine it really doesn't bother me But can you say the same in regards to NGC's Mark Salzberg?
This is a quote from a recent announcement from NGC regarding the non acceptance of non NGC graded coins in the set registries.
http://coins.www.collectors-society.com/news/ViewArticle.aspx?IDArticle=5627&NGC-Registry
QuoteWhen the NGC Registry was started, it allowed participants to build sets that included coins graded by other services, which were treated equally to NGC-certified coins when points were assigned and sets were ranked. After seeing the dramatic changes at other grading services over the last few years, however, I am no longer confident that their current standards are equal to their former standards or to those that NGC has maintained for nearly 30 years.
Like I said we are Both on the same side here, admittedly I am not as diplomatic or conservative as yourself But I do share the same passion for this hobby and if I see anything that has the potential to do the hobby harm I will "Speak Up" :ok: :angel:
I agree that they do make mistakes but they always have and I don't think their accuracy has been slipping - 100% accuracy is not possible - perhaps it is just your own grading skills that are improving to the point where you're able to more confidently detect their mistakes.
Quoteperhaps it is just your own grading skills that are improving to the point where you're able to more confidently detect their mistakes.
I am starting to wish that i had never learned how to grade, I used to be quite content in my ignorance :angel:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='102102' dateline='1480462835'Quoteperhaps it is just your own grading skills that are improving to the point where you're able to more confidently detect their mistakes.
I am starting to wish that i had never learned how to grade, I used to be quite content in my ignorance :angel:
I think you would rather know what you have and not have to rely on what someone told you.After all many of us invest a lot of time and money into this hobby/business so we really need to know what we have in our hot little hands
Quote from: 'wwwww' pid='102101' dateline='1480462535'I agree that they do make mistakes but they always have and I don't think their accuracy has been slipping - 100% accuracy is not possible - perhaps it is just your own grading skills that are improving to the point where you're able to more confidently detect their mistakes.
Came across this video on NGC's temporary coin grading room at the show. I think PGCS would have the same procedure: 2 graders have to agree then a final check. You have to be pretty unlucky to have all three stuffed up?
https://youtu.be/QA7eN8ypSpw
The final walkthrough of the grades was pretty interesting.
"The final walkthrough of the grades was pretty interesting"
i agree..
.. had dings in wrong place ...
.. AU details obv. cleaned ... rev. is original ... if less cleaned might have netted it 53..
...obv. is most important side of coin ... grade the obv....
:scratch_one-s_head::scratch_one-s_head:
Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='102111' dateline='1480474445'Quote from: 'wwwww' pid='102101' dateline='1480462535'I agree that they do make mistakes but they always have and I don't think their accuracy has been slipping - 100% accuracy is not possible - perhaps it is just your own grading skills that are improving to the point where you're able to more confidently detect their mistakes.
Came across this video on NGC's temporary coin grading room at the show. I think PGCS would have the same procedure: 2 graders have to agree then a final check. You have to be pretty unlucky to have all three stuffed up?
https://youtu.be/QA7eN8ypSpw
The final walkthrough of the grades was pretty interesting.
On any individual coin it's highly unlikely that all 3 miss something but when you consider the sheer number of coins they grade per year then the likeliness increases.
If I remember correctly PCGS was pretty Much "Snowed Under" for a few months this year and the probability of them making mistakes would have increased because of this.
I imagine that the graders would have been under the pump to catch up with the backlog and would have rushed it on some submissions, This is a recipe for making mistakes :ok:
Lets put this PCGS issue aside and look at the other factors affecting the values of Decimal coins, In particular the slabbed coins because that is only a small part of the picture :ok:
Over the last couple of years there has been a rapid increase in the population figures for graded Australian Decimals and I am thinking that Collectors are now getting their own coins graded instead of relying on acquiring these via dealers, eBay and other venues.
Also some dealers have stepped up the pace and are now sending a lot more coins away to be graded for sale on the market.
These two things have to have a downward effect on prices achieved, Supply and Demand.
Then we have the realization that many collectors have that High grade Decimal coins are really not that rare or impossible to find, It's just that not that many had been graded So that the Pop figures for graded coins are disproportionate to what is actually still available Raw.
This will affect what a collector will be willing to pay or bid for any given coin.
Yes the MS68 or better circulation coins (Excluding the years 2002-2009) ARE tough to find and any coin with a 70 grade can be added to this But anything else is still available in numbers.
I think that "The Honeymoon is Over" where just because a Decimal coin is in a slab automatically made it rare and desirable and was sold accordingly.
The "Novelty" factor of owning a slabbed coin WAS a factor in the prices achieved in the past But now collectors have become accustomed to the idea of having TPG graded coins in their collections they are becoming more "Astute" in their buying practices.
With every new concept there is a "Bubble" period initially But then everything settles down and becomes business as usual, This is what IMHO is happening with not only the Graded Decimal coins but for all graded coins.
This is actually a Good thing because when the dust settles both buyers and sellers will have a "stable" marketplace that isn't scaring new collectors away with inflated values :good:
End of Rant.................................For now :)
PCGS is losing it's mystique where mostly only the rare/r coin collectors went to be assured of grading consistency and purity vis-à-vis - cleaning, doctored surfaces, fakes, precious metal purity assured i.e. Gold Mohars etc etc
some of the new is wearing off the crystal chandelier
it is becoming for want of a better word somewhat "common" - i believe it is being downright downgraded by less than a handful of business submitters - no class about the venture - just send bulk, unsorted, package into slabs and sell fast to who ever steps up for a bulk lot buy to sell on quickly
no style - no face to face charming sell by well dressed handsome young (or in between) coin dealers
I like my internet sales but I also seek out my face to face, chat, charm, friendship side of sales
I think that is why people like pages like facebook - it adds a human side to the sell , they can engage, chat look at photos of the sellers and so on - buy form others who they relate to
anyways, pcgs is here to stay, big time submitters for the time being are here to stay& pcgs have to be careful to NOT be seen to manipulate the market so if joe blow submits a container load of coins.. well they just slab and charge for the service - no questions asked
it's business and they probably do the same for the USA marketplace
Quote from: 'duggee27' pid='102113' dateline='1480487874'"The final walkthrough of the grades was pretty interesting"
i agree..
.. had dings in wrong place ...
.. AU details obv. cleaned ... rev. is original ... if less cleaned might have netted it 53..
...obv. is most important side of coin ... grade the obv....
:scratch_one-s_head::scratch_one-s_head:
The first and third one are logical. That's my understanding as well.
But the second one....... would be interesting to know if someone has submitted a lot of NGC slabs to PCGS for crossover notice a lot of coins coming back as cleaned.
QuoteBut the second one....... would be interesting to know if someone has submitted a lot of NGC slabs to PCGS for crossover notice a lot of coins coming back as cleaned.
Yes, I have submitted a small amount to PCGS for crossover. Some NGC coins fail to cross because PCGS considers them to be cleaned. It hasn't been many, but enough for me to closely check NGC coins before I buy.
Eric
Quote from: 'wwwww' pid='102114' dateline='1480489248'On any individual coin it's highly unlikely that all 3 miss something but when you consider the sheer number of coins they grade per year then the likeliness increases.
Well the probability is the same, but the absolute number of misses goes up with the number of coins graded. Unless, the increase in volume increases the error rate of individual graders. But you think they would hire more?
Here is another video of grading walkthrough. This time is the PCGS grading challenge at the Anaheim show.
https://youtu.be/cuSk3Mrb1uA
Like to find more of these if anyone come across them.
QuoteBut you think they would hire more?
I wouldn't think that there would be too many good graders looking for work and finding new graders would be pretty hard.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='102151' dateline='1480545200'QuoteBut you think they would hire more?
I wouldn't think that there would be too many good graders looking for work and finding new graders would be pretty hard.
Can train new ones.
they don't seem to scout for Australian experts
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='102173' dateline='1480585662'they don't seem to scout for Australian experts
They don't want our people to Show them Up, That's all :):angel:
Hey Folks,
Many be time to re lookat this subject again... it is very quiet in here so bit of activity cant be bad. Secondly I have seen some very interesting trends in the market lately. I have seen a dramatically reduced price realised when it comes to pre decimal coins compared to 2-3 year ago.
1926 shilling MS64 ~ $1000
1922 Sixpence MS65 ~ $2200
1920 Shilling MS 63 ~ $ 1300 and then $3500 (that was an interesting scenario)
1920 Sixpence MS64 ~ $2000
1917 Florin MS64 ~ $1250
1918 Florin failing to sell for ~ $800
These are some examples comes to mind without doing too much research. If you have any comparable examples, please share and join the discussion.
Other thing I have noticed is it is all the same collectors bidding for the same coin... :sun_bespectacled:
Thanks folks...
Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='114843' dateline='1523742685'Hey Folks,
Many be time to re look at this subject again... it is very quiet in here so bit of activity cant be bad. Secondly I have seen some very interesting trends in the market lately. I have seen a dramatically reduced price realised when it comes to pre decimal coins compared to 2-3 year ago.
Yeah,mostly agree,always been ebbs & flows but the rise of the slabbed Coins and the Chinese fakes have all affected the market IMO.
The average collector now has the wealth of knowledge available on the Internet so the ability for a Dealer to achieve 'cream' pricing is just about gone,Ebay's free market is also setting the price in most areas of Notes and Coins for the hobby collector,again IMO.
Absolutely Basil. I think the dealers are the ones mostly impacted I would have assumed ? Some of them have invested in coins they may have an issue selling in the open market ? There are multiple auction houses in the market now, giving collectors an opportunity to test the waters and pay what the market is ready to pay rather than a price set by an individual. Good for the collectors but bad if they want to sell....
I won't have to worry about coins like that.
They are way out of my price market.
Quote from: 'Triggersmob' pid='114850' dateline='1523749099'I won't have to worry about coins like that.
They are way out of my price market.
I hear you.. However the next tier coins (ie MS 61, 62 as well as good AU 58 coins ) go for lot better prices than what it was a few years ago. I have seen 1934, 35 sixpence coins in MS62, 63 go for a few hundred $$$ where as AU58 coins go for less than $100. Good for collectors...
I have 200+ PCGS slabs and keep a record of the date and price. The prices I've paid these past 18 months are often half of what I paid for the same coin 3 years ago.
For example, the Canberra florin
For NGC
NGC MS65 22/4/15 $220 (Benchmark)
NGC MS65 1/7/17 $183.20 (Trout)
For PCGS
PCGS MS64 6/1/14 $259.90
PCGS MS64 21/2/15 USD 111.95 (about $150)
PCGS MS64 21/6/16 $136.28
PCGS MS64 4/2/16 $138.20
PCGS MS65+ ?/4/17 $720
PCGS MS65 1/10/17 $165.60
PCGS MS64+ 6/2/18 $142
PCGS MS64 5/3/18 $99
So today I can get MS65 for less than MS64 cost 4 years ago. In 2014 any MS64 under $300 was a good pickup as I had to miss out on many that went for higher than that. Dealers BIN prices were over $400. Drake (Eric) currently has a MS64 at $150 and a MS65 at $395.
In raw coins I paid under $45 last month for 4 Canberras, one is gEF and the other 3 will make MS63 (possibly MS64) when I send them off. Why was there no bidding competition for those coins?
Great time for those of us who are assembling high grade sets. For sellers however...
Good observations there Neal. I have stopped going too high for raw coins now. Reason being why take a risk when I can buy already graded coins for same or lesser value ? I also see most of the folks grabbing a bargain are collectors who spend the time looking harder and done the hard work. As I mentioned, I am competing with the same 2-3 people all the time for higher grade coins...
i would assume that there are say X amount of collectors of predecimals in australia , so if more coins of a date get graded then we have X + (????) of graded coins for a particular date , therefore a surplus = lower prices , a simple supply and demand situation
Good point ! However it is hard to believe the value would go down that much when the number of high grade coins have not changed significantly in years. As an example, 1922 6D have 4 MS65 coins, 1 MS65+. However the sale price has gone from ~ $14.5 K to about $3.5 K in 4 years...
Yes, one of the heaviest hitters (Fenton) is no longer in the game, however there are enough buyers in the market at the moment...
Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='114865' dateline='1523868999'Good point ! However it is hard to believe the value would go down that much when the number of high grade coins have not changed significantly in years. As an example, 1922 6D have 4 MS65 coins, 1 MS65+. However the sale price has gone from ~ $14.5 K to about $3.5 K in 4 years...
Yes, one of the heaviest hitters (Fenton) is no longer in the game, however there are enough buyers in the market at the moment...
Without a Fenton to compete against the other buyers are less in need of a bidding war and there are no more Fenton V Timbertop crazy high prices for common date QE2 in top grade. Especially as many satisfied a hole in their collection with an ex Fenton coin they may not even be tempted by the current bargains.
The numbers of high grade has increased for many coins. Just 2 years ago there was only 3 1921M threepence in MS66, now there are 5. Fenton and Timbertop probably had one each so there was only a single MS66 potentially available compared with 4 now
I hear your point there. However there were instances where people have paid reasonably higher prices apart from Fenton and TT. When there are multiple coins (more than 2 as TOP), a few years ago they were achieving good prices. Days of crazy prices are a thing in the past however declining prices might be a concern for some of they are planning to sell... only time will tell... :angel:
How much of a factor was the Rare Coin Company?
I have seen auction catalog these days mentioning coins that was purchased from Rare Coin Company about 5 years ago at 4-5x today's prices.
As getting Australian coins graded by the TPG's has become more popular there are now more high grade coins available so naturally this is affecting the prices adversely.
The rare coin company debacle and the Fenton sale did have a small impact on sales But I think that the increase in the coin populations has far more of an impact on prices.
Personally I think that this isn't all bad new for collectors, Yes it will have an adverse effect on collection values But it also allows other less well heeled collectors to be able to add these coins to their collections.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='114871' dateline='1523909512'As getting Australian coins graded by the TPG's has become more popular there are now more high grade coins available so naturally this is affecting the prices adversely.
The rare coin company debacle and the Fenton sale did have a small impact on sales But I think that the increase in the coin populations has far more of an impact on prices.
Personally I think that this isn't all bad new for collectors, Yes it will have an adverse effect on collection values But it also allows other less well heeled collectors to be able to add these coins to their collections.
Lower prices are helping everyday collectors, as you said that is the bright side of more affordable coin prices...
Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='114870' dateline='1523882384'How much of a factor was the Rare Coin Company?
I have seen auction catalog these days mentioning coins that was purchased from Rare Coin Company about 5 years ago at 4-5x today's prices.
Yes, that is sad...
Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='114873' dateline='1523910546'Lower prices are helping everyday collectors, as you said that is the bright side of more affordable coin prices...
I actually think that the lower values will do more good than harm to the hobby by allowing more people to participate :good:
For me not so good as I have been selling a fair bit of my collection to fund my other interests eg fishing, travelling, drinking beer and generally just "Chilling out" But on a whole I think it is a "Good" thing.
I think there are probably many scarce to rare, high grade raw coins still out there, which have the potential to dilute the market further for some time to come. How long it takes for these coins to eventually find their way into TPG slabs is anyone's guess, but while ever these coins are out there, some amount of uncertainty will remain IMO. I think it ironic that the despised raw coin market can still have a long lasting negative effect on the slabbing business. :zomby: :angel:
coins are like shares and property , they go up and down as the market dictates the prices
Quote from: 'trout' pid='114871' dateline='1523909512'the Fenton sale
When was it?
Quote from: 'Mister T' pid='114913' dateline='1524051271'Quote from: 'trout' pid='114871' dateline='1523909512'the Fenton sale
When was it?
July 2016 ? It was a while back...
Quote from: 'Mister T' pid='114913' dateline='1524051271'Quote from: 'trout' pid='114871' dateline='1523909512'the Fenton sale
When was it?
Noble Auction Sale 112, 25–28 Jul 2016
http://www.noble.com.au/auctions/search/?sale=112&p=1&c=6255
Can't believe it's been almost two years.
https://www.sterlingcurrency.com.au/articles/noble-numismatics-auction-112-marathon-event-including-george-fenton-collection
Quote from: 'kchan1111' pid='114917' dateline='1524053051'Quote from: 'Mister T' pid='114913' dateline='1524051271'Quote from: 'trout' pid='114871' dateline='1523909512'the Fenton sale
When was it?
Noble Auction Sale 112, 25–28 Jul 2016
http://www.noble.com.au/auctions/search/?sale=112&p=1&c=6255
Can't believe it's been almost two years.
https://www.sterlingcurrency.com.au/articles/noble-numismatics-auction-112-marathon-event-including-george-fenton-collection
Thanks KC. Yep, time flies when you are having fun :whistle2:
Oh thanks - forgot about that one.