RAM gives mintages for these two years as 1 million each.
Macca says 1985 1 million and 1993 982,800.
Renniks suggests 1985 1 million and 1993 2,217,000.
Regardless of the exact mintages, they are both hard to find years in circulation. However, in my noodling, I have found between four and five 1993 for every 1985. That puts the ratio well different than any of the sets of published figures.
Does anyone have any thought on what may be the correct figures?
Who knows,but i agree the 1985 seems to be much scarcer by a large margin so Rennik may be more correct.Mintage figures are always open to conjecture,i don't know why as all it takes is someone in Authority to read a meter that counts the number of down strikes of the mintage machines(or at least that what i was told).
There was a lot of conjecture around the time the Sydney Mint closed on the mintage figures of Pennies but over time a number is accepted as being correct by the majority of 'experts' so the same will happen with the 50c coins you would think.
I agree that 1993 is much more common than 1985.
Providing a little justification, would that 1985 coins are older and would have spent more time being lost/collected.
I don't think that would go even close to explaining the numbers we find though.
A while back I did some estimating about the rate that 1972 5 coins were removed from circulation based on the proportions I was finding them in.
Would be interesting to do something like a census to get counts of each of the years and then compare to the mintage figures.
From all my 50c noodling, I have never come across any 1985 or 1993.
I'd be very interested in a State by State census. I wonder how much currency circulates but never actually leaves Tasmania.
There is no doubt that we are always well behind in finding current year issues. I think it was Nov14 until I came across my first 2014 in circulation.
Yes, '85 are harder to find.
But relating that to mintages? Tough call.
I've always thought that mintage figures are only a starting point to establish rough correlation between issues. There is no accounting for attrition, be it into collections, furnaces or the briny depths, nor is there an audit trail for distribution.
Eventually we get a rough feel, sure, but there really is no way of knowing how many of any particular coin exist, let alone are still available to be found. :(
Probably Fulvio I did not phrase my question very well. I don't expect any definitive answer on mintages but wanted to get a feel for what is being found overall.
My noodling finds are almost certainly not enough to be statistically significant. But, add in what others have found and we get closer to a true picture of relative numbers of them in the pond.
Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='66571' dateline='1423189142'Yes, '85 are harder to find.
But relating that to mintages? Tough call.
I would have to disagree.
In fact it has been done before. ..
see this thread at CCF
http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=105452
I started that based on what I (and others) felt was incorrect rates of finding 1977 10c coins that were supposed to be fairly low mintage.
Nancy found older mintage figures which matched more closely with what we were finding.
Amazing what information can sometimes appear, if the right question is asked.
I have amended my Maccas accordingly for the '77 10¢.
I've found 1 of each 85 and 93 in my limited noodling.
And here I was thinking I was just so lucky in finding so many 1977 10c pieces :-/. I hadn't noticed that CCF thread and it does make more sense now.
On the 50c side of things - 2 x 1985 and 5 x 1993. Small sample I know but it may suggest Renniks' numbers are closer to the mark.
Pedro
With what I have found in recent times that makes a cumulative total of 5 x 1985 and 13 x 1993 found.
How about you Goldie? I suspect you have a record of numbers of these.
I'm around 6 x 85 and 8 x 93 so considering the 8 years extra for people to accumulate the 85s then perhaps the mint numbers are correct?
Yes, I'd be interested if Goldie has some stats and AJ too, he might have a tally.
McDuck, how many metres of each are at the bottom of the money bin vacuum sealed in coin bags?
I've kept some stats over the years, here we go!
1985 50c[/u]
2007 - 23
2008 - 8
2009 - 2
2010 - 7
2011 - 16
2012 - 18
2013 - 6
2014 - 6
2015 - 1
TOTAL - 87
1993 50c
2007 - 73
2008 - 18
2009 - 4
2010 - 12
2011 - 62
2012 - 50
2013 - 37
2014 - 52
2015 - 5
TOTAL - 313
1985 50c pieces I have found only ONE.
1993 I wouldn't have a clue as I have not been looking for them.
Sorry I can't be of any more help.
That's some serious noodling bjw!!!! Thanks for sharing.
(I think the 93 year numbers might need an edit).
Quote from: 'Unicorn' pid='66593' dateline='1423217819'That's some serious noodling bjw!!!! Thanks for sharing.
(I think the 93 year numbers might need an edit).
Yep the numbers are updated (cut and paste problems)
Super, super, super effort bjw!
Do you have any stats on your finds of incused or rotateds?
Do we dare ask BJW how many coins you have noodled to come up with that haul?
Pedro
In South-East Queensland the 1993s easily outnumber the 1985s. No stats unfortunately - I think I've only found two or three 1985s but plenty of 1993s.
I have found 3 x 1985 and 5 x 1993 in country SA
Quote from: 'Pedro' pid='66598' dateline='1423220044'Do we dare ask BJW how many coins you have noodled to come up with that haul?
Pedro
132K worth and counting Pedro
Very impressive BJW! I think I would have lost count well before now!
Pedro
I have recorded a noodling number of 456,381 x 50c pieces for only ONE 1985 50c piece.
I shall now include the 1993 50c coin lookout in my noodling.
That doesn't mean I have not found other 50c pieces that require to be saved. In fact, 254 other 50c pieces have bee kept.
The logic comparing rarity ratios by sitting in one spot and sorting out a table top full of coins is reasonable but flawed. The Ram and the reserve banks don't work on an "equal distribution" theory. If the rb in Darwin and Adelaide, for instance, both order ten million five cent pieces there is no procedure in place to ensure that both centres get an equal proportion of the latest date. Having spoken to a few reserve bank employees in the past, one pallet of coins is as good as the next and the one closest to the safe door is the first one loaded on the truck. The rolls or bags at the back of the holding pen could sit there for years if demand for a particular denomination. If there is a sudden rush that completely empties out the safe the client could get a mixture of freshly minted coins, bags of used mixed dates and mint condition coins that might have been struck a few years beforehand. You can see how this would completely bugger up any shovel load of coins dumped on a table and comparative rarity determined by a head count as discussed by others in this thread. If eighty percent of 2014 dated five cent pieces are distributed to banks on the eastern seaboard it would figure that table counters in Perth, adelaide And Darwin are going to draw the conclusion that the 2014 five cent piece is rare. It's not long before collectors in those centres conclude that the lack of coins found despite a published mintage figure of several zillions means that they must have all been melted down. Old geezers like me can remember the mad rush to complete pre-decimal sets when decimal currency was announced. Seemed like the only place you could get a reasonably priced 1925 penny was in WA. Seems like they got the lion's share when first minted. Same thing with DBP one dollar test notes. By design or coincidence most of the one million notes turned up in Tasmania. Moral of the story...if you are struggling to find a coin during your table search find out what dealers in other states are charging. It won't work in every case but you might be pleasantly surprised.
Cheers
Greg
Sound advice Greg.! :good:
Quote from: 'Greg McDonald' pid='66643' dateline='1423295546'The logic comparing rarity ratios by sitting in one spot and sorting out a table top full of coins is reasonable but flawed.
Kinda what I said, albeit less eloquently. :angel:
Getting way OT but whilst Greg is around could i ask him to explain the rarity of the 1920 'no dot' Penny,is it the 'no dot' English Obverse that is rare(although i think these have been shown to be filled die dot unders). I wish i had a $ for every person who has asked me for the explanation esp. since the rise of the Internet.
Good to see you back posting Greg. This must mean that the latest Packet Guide has been "put to bed" and you now have time to scratch yourself.
You are correct -distribution is not equal across the states. Classic example is the Centenary of Federation 20¢ and 50¢ -I have made several swaps interstate to try and equalise the numbers of the different ones I have stacked away. Noodlers of these in different states have different opinions as to which ones are the hardest to find. Also, I have heard that many of the 2000 $1 mules turned up in Perth initially.
I suspect that most coins never leave the state they were first sent to.
However, by combining resources of members here, we are not sitting at one table (in one location) sorting coins but several tables in different locations. So, not a definitive count but, a more indicative figure might be obtained.
I note that circulated 1985 50¢ coins generally fetch around twice as much as 1993 on eBay. Yes,yes, I know that eBay is not a reliable price guide (or is it?) but any clue is worth considering.
I have always presumed that published mintage figures are derived from RAM annual reports. It is, therefore, puzzling to see the discrepancy in the quoted figures for these years.
A further thought;
1991 50¢ (ramshead) is the same era and published mintage figures are all in agreement. These are coins that most collectors would put aside when they see them. Perhaps if anyone also has numbers found for these they could also mention them here as a benchmark for comparison with the other two years.
Excellent points Greg and Jeff regarding distribution and possible mintages.
There are several mintages stated by the RAM that have been discussed as suspect over time. Presumably these potential discrepancies have been raised with the RAM but no changes to their site reporting on those mintages seems to have occurred?
As far as the 1991 50c goes I have picked up 8 of them.
Pedro
I didn't properly think through my theory of using 1991 as a comparative benchmark.
It has been pointed out to me that, because of the distinctive and attractive reverse design, many non-collectors will put these aside. So the number found in circulation may not have much correlation with original issue numbers.
That certainly supports my feeling that they are becoming increasingly harder to find.
However people might start spending them (as seems to be the case with some other coins) so only slightly circulated ones might start turning up.
The point about distribution not being even is valid.
I only started the thread on the 1977 10c after noticing they seemed more common than the published numbers would suggest AND seeing similar results for other collectors elsewhere.
It was also part of the reason I mentioned doing some form of census/survey.
I seem to find a far lower rate of incuse 50c in Sydney than others elsewhere around the country.
Re the 1991 50c, I am certain that a lot of them get put aside (so they stay in good condition) and then spent later - and this cycle continues Almost all the ones I find from circulation are in much better condition than you would expect for the age of them.