Hi Folks,
Just looking at some auction and other (eBay) sales results in the last 2 years, it seems some coins that was selling for very high prices previously are now going fairly cheaply (comparatively). Ie 1932 Penny MS64BN... Over $2K about 2 years ago to about $500 now... It's the same for most of the other coins as well.... I can think of a few reasons such as people grading more coins so population going up driving prices down ( simple supply and demand ), financial situation globally etc..
What are your thought ? Love to hear your opinion ...
Disclaimer - I am not only talking about TPG graded coins or high grade coins... I think as a whole it is going down.. So everyone is well come to comment.... :wavemulticolor:
years ago the 1925 and 1946 pennies sold like hotcakes and above CV values
now it takes months to sell a single one and at much less than cat. value
we put $100,000 into our house in improvements this year
had it revalued recently - increased $25,000 in value - the guy said 'it is a slow market ' at the moment. I think slow markets are across the board
The CEO at mint said to me the other day that people just don't have the disposable income for the little luxuries anymore (or are unwilling to spend on them)
Is this a BAD thing ?
As a collector I think personally that it is a good thing :yahoo:
it may not only be the effects of a "Downturn" in the economy that is effecting the values of pre decimal coins, It may be that new collectors are concentrating on the Decimal coins because they are easier to source and are far cheaper than the pre decimals :ok:
QuoteThe CEO at mint said to me the other day that people just don't have the disposable income for the little luxuries anymore (or are unwilling to spend on them)
I may also be that many collectors have been "Jaded" by the mass production of NCLT of late and that is affecting the RAM's sales figures
I agree that values of predecimal coins are down across the board, except for the top shelf stuff.
Down down prices are down.
There has been an easing of prices in general. A few dealers going under, an increase in the number of dealers getting coins certified, and the general level of confidence in the market have all worked against prices.
As trout points out, prices going down is not necessarily a bad thing. Case in point, I had always thought I'd missed the boat when it came to pre-55 pre-decimal proofs, but prices are coming down nicely that they are almost affordable.
so eric is this now yours ?? :angel:
http://coins.ha.com/itm/australia/world-coins/australia-george-v-6-piece-proof-set-1934-total-6-coins-/a/3037-31006.s
a prime example of prices going down as stated in the blurb a similar (??) set in 2010 sold for $us 276 000.... the above sale was absolute bargain !!
Thanks for the reply guys... Don't get me wrong. I am not complaining as I have lot of coins to add to my collection. I personally think prices will go down further.. I think coin prices are directly linked to people's disposable income and the world financial situation..
Keep your options coming....
After several of the big auctions late last year I went through the prices realised of Aussie star notes (some of the most desirable Australian notes). I also went back through the archives to 2005 to see how they'd done over the last 10 years. Values had almost exactly halved across the board!!!
That's a big drop in value and is not isolated to star notes in Australian numismatics.
With our national demographics changing rapidly, an increasingly cashless society, millions of new 'flashy' products being pumped out by the RAM, not to mention all the non-numismatic must have possessions, I just can't see numismatic values increasing at all.
I don't consider my collection to be a good investment at all. Cash in the bank would probably do better on 3.5% pa.
It's a bit sad but that's the reality.
Quality coins are doing well and so are key dates. Mid range coins are the ones to struggle, for example a 1936 florin in almost uncirculated condition wont do well however a gem example is going strong.
Another factor is the Aussie dollar. Heritage has had some very nice predecimal coins lately but the change in our dollar relative to the US dollar made them quite pricey.
Quote from: 'dcoin' pid='65131' dateline='1420871914'Quality coins are doing well and so are key dates. Mid range coins are the ones to struggle, for example a 1936 florin in almost uncirculated condition wont do well however a gem example is going strong.
Its bit of a hit and a miss... I am mainly concentrating on sixpence at the moment. At th moment 1939, 1953, 1940 etc in high grades going much cheaper. .. I think supply and demand has a lot do with it.. like Eric said, lot of dealers are grading coins in bulk. My theory is after a certain time people are going to run our of new coins to grade, then prices will go up.. same as what happened to US coins... some US coins have 100's in the Pop chart, still the key date coins are selling for a strong price... only time will tell....
Quote from: 'duggee27' pid='65126' dateline='1420867452'so eric is this now yours ?? :angel:
http://coins.ha.com/itm/australia/world-coins/australia-george-v-6-piece-proof-set-1934-total-6-coins-/a/3037-31006.s
a prime example of prices going down as stated in the blurb a similar (??) set in 2010 sold for $us 276 000.... the above sale was absolute bargain !!
Ouch. I hope the seller isn't the one that bought it for $276,000.
"We have been lucky to sell this set twice (not the same coins however) in our history,"
Quote from: 'markn' pid='65135' dateline='1420882007'Ouch. I hope the seller isn't the one that bought it for $276,000.
The $276k set was superior. Having said that im not sure it was $150k superior.
Quote from: 'markn' pid='65135' dateline='1420882007'Quote from: 'duggee27' pid='65126' dateline='1420867452'so eric is this now yours ?? :angel:
http://coins.ha.com/itm/australia/world-coins/australia-george-v-6-piece-proof-set-1934-total-6-coins-/a/3037-31006.s
a prime example of prices going down as stated in the blurb a similar (??) set in 2010 sold for $us 276 000.... the above sale was absolute bargain !!
Ouch. I hope the seller isn't the one that bought it for $276,000.
no its not
note that the next lot - a 1953 proof set did not sell !!
The most I have ever spent on a coin is $1100 for my Ducat and I have NO regrets at all about that purchase .
I really don't care about its market value one iota because it will never be for sale while I live :ok:
I often get asked what my collections are worth and I simply answer that I would not have a Bloody clue.
For me its ALL about the coins NOT their value and like Eric said I may if I am lucky enough, be able to add some "Wish List" coins to my collections while the prices are depressed :good:
ALL is GOOD :wavemulticolor:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='65142' dateline='1420893439'The most I have ever spent on a coin is $1100 for my Ducat and I have NO regrets at all about that purchase .
I really don't care about its market value one iota because it will never be for sale while I live :ok:
I often get asked what my collections are worth and I simply answer that I would not have a Bloody clue.
For me its ALL about the coins NOT their value and like Eric said I may if I am lucky enough, be able to add some "Wish List" coins to my collections while the prices are depressed :good:
ALL is GOOD :wavemulticolor:
Well said Trout, if you are happy with what you have thats the most important thing.
For me it is bit different. I love my coins, however I do consider them to be a bit of an investment. I am sure there are others who feels the same way. If prices do not bounce back in the short term, its not the end of the world for me... I will then complete my collection. Oneday my kids or grandkids will be the winners then... :wavemulticolor:
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='65136' dateline='1420888010'"We have been lucky to sell this set twice (not the same coins however) in our history,"
Well there's a bit of slippery English for you that I mis-read. "Same set, oh but different coins". Not the same set at all.
Yes
a little along the lines of the used car salesman .... only driven by a little old lady ... to the caryard - not sure who drove it before that
Outside of the banknotes (off by 80-90%) the only coins to suffer similar drops are those conditional rarity Top of the Pop coins that sold a few years ago and now have a couple more graded the same or higher.
I have a MS65 slabbed sixpence that is only one grade below the top coin and when I purchased it (April '14) there were 2 coins in the top grade and it only cost me $145, now there are 4 at MS66. Less than 2 years ago there was only a single MS66 and it sold at auction for 7 grand. At this rate there will be a dozen in MS66 (maybe 66+) in a few years and they will sell for under $500. Mine might drop to $100 so I'm losing far less than if I had tried to buy the very best. Disproves the adage about buying the very best; I just buy what I want and if it drops a bit I'll just buy some more (would love a MS66 to go with the MS65).
I think the only way that I'll be able to stay ahead of the game is to continue to buy raw overseas predecimal bargains
and sending them off to get slabbed in the hope of a reasonable gain in value.Seems to be working so far
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='65156' dateline='1420947934'Outside of the banknotes (off by 80-90%) the only coins to suffer similar drops are those conditional rarity Top of the Pop coins that sold a few years ago and now have a couple more graded the same or higher.
I have a MS65 slabbed sixpence that is only one grade below the top coin and when I purchased it (April '14) there were 2 coins in the top grade and it only cost me $145, now there are 4 at MS66. Less than 2 years ago there was only a single MS66 and it sold at auction for 7 grand. At this rate there will be a dozen in MS66 (maybe 66+) in a few years and they will sell for under $500. Mine might drop to $100 so I'm losing far less than if I had tried to buy the very best. Disproves the adage about buying the very best; I just buy what I want and if it drops a bit I'll just buy some more (would love a MS66 to go with the MS65).
Hi nealeffendi, what date is your sixpence?
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='65156' dateline='1420947934'Outside of the banknotes (off by 80-90%) the only coins to suffer similar drops are those conditional rarity Top of the Pop coins that sold a few years ago and now have a couple more graded the same or higher.
I have a MS65 slabbed sixpence that is only one grade below the top coin and when I purchased it (April '14) there were 2 coins in the top grade and it only cost me $145, now there are 4 at MS66. Less than 2 years ago there was only a single MS66 and it sold at auction for 7 grand. At this rate there will be a dozen in MS66 (maybe 66+) in a few years and they will sell for under $500. Mine might drop to $100 so I'm losing far less than if I had tried to buy the very best. Disproves the adage about buying the very best; I just buy what I want and if it drops a bit I'll just buy some more (would love a MS66 to go with the MS65).
Very good point. I agree with you 100%... I got sucked in to paying 000's or 00's more for TOP coins a few times before. However I learnt very quickly. .. unless the coin on offer is extremely rare and there will be no chance of a nother coming up, I am happy with second best coin that would hold its value... or drop a few $$ in the long run ....
Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='65158' dateline='1420948611'I think the only way that I'll be able to stay ahead of the game is to continue to buy raw overseas predecimal bargains
and sending them off to get slabbed in the hope of a reasonable gain in value.Seems to be working so far
I agree, my issue is I only pick up rubbish when I try to do that.. :dodgy:
Quote from: 'ausproofs' pid='65162' dateline='1420951626'Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='65156' dateline='1420947934'Outside of the banknotes (off by 80-90%) the only coins to suffer similar drops are those conditional rarity Top of the Pop coins that sold a few years ago and now have a couple more graded the same or higher.
I have a MS65 slabbed sixpence that is only one grade below the top coin and when I purchased it (April '14) there were 2 coins in the top grade and it only cost me $145, now there are 4 at MS66. Less than 2 years ago there was only a single MS66 and it sold at auction for 7 grand. At this rate there will be a dozen in MS66 (maybe 66+) in a few years and they will sell for under $500. Mine might drop to $100 so I'm losing far less than if I had tried to buy the very best. Disproves the adage about buying the very best; I just buy what I want and if it drops a bit I'll just buy some more (would love a MS66 to go with the MS65).
Very good point. I agree with you 100%... I got sucked in to paying 000's or 00's more for TOP coins a few times before. However I learnt very quickly. .. unless the coin on offer is extremely rare and there will be no chance of a nother coming up, I am happy with second best coin that would hold its value... or drop a few $$ in the long run ....
Nothing wrong with buying conditional rarities in a mature market. However, the Australian slabbed coin market is only entering pubescence IMHO and if you buy conditional rarities now expecting them to remain so long term then you are likely to be disappointed. I think Neal's approach (buy one grade below the top) is a good one for building up a great collection without spending the earth.
1951pl sixpence. There are now 7 at MS65 and 4 at MS66. In July 2013 the then only MS66 sold for $7250 (plus $1087.50 fees) at Pacific Rim. When I got my MS65 in April 2014 there were 2 at MS66. So mine was still one of the best 10 and only cost $138.57 (including postage) and demonstrates that it only takes a few high grades to drop the price 95-98% (there have been at least 2 others at MS65 available for around $300 this past year including from DrakeSterling).
The deep pockets of Timbertop and Fenton can get into the bidding wars and pay 10X what we little guys can. Getting one grade below means we will never unseat them but enables us to build up nice collections
:i_agree: Mark, I think a lot of collectors are slowly understanding the best way to build a collection.... I personally think another 2 years or so will bring out most of the good raw coins out of hiding.
I've noticed a downtrend over the past year too. I don't consider it a bad thing however, markets go up and down, it's normal in transparent/healthy markets as supply and demand shifts.
In the past catalogue prices almost always went up, this was unrealistic and contributed to major crashes (e.g. the investor targeted material crash of 2010) as when values are artificially inflated, eventually market forces require a correction, usually in the form of a crash.
I see the markets still in knee jerk stage with plenty of room to grow.
the GFC and bad publicity like the Rare coin company fiasco has given coin collecting/investing a bad name
however I see the likes of PCGS as a saviour. they make it easier for people to enter the market and create competition with their set registries.
my generation is all about "competing" and trying to collect a set and move up the set registry is something that they go for. given a few more years of earning money and getting sick of the jet skies, v8 commodores and motorbikes and they will be looking for a sedate hobby and will have the cash to enter it.
this is what the market needs, fresh money as, with respect, most of the current top end collectors are in their twilight years and dropping off the perch
so start those registries even if you don't intend to finish them. you give other people someone to over take and a sense of competition that drives them to buy more coins
This is all very interesting and timely given my transition into higher grade predecimals.
Due to limited resources, I'm still looking to follow the primary principal of buying the best coin you can afford.
Due to my new mantra, I am now looking to purchase & collect with one eye on the investment, whether it be short or long term.
Am I right to assume that the raw coins are not slabbed coins? I have not yet aligned with slabbing or the MS grading process, however I feel that by delaying getting on board, I'm being left behind.
Are unslabbed, un-MS graded coins at a disadvantage in terms of investment or collectability?
Quote from: 'coxspau' pid='65268' dateline='1421196535'This is all very interesting and timely given my transition into higher grade predecimals.
Due to limited resources, I'm still looking to follow the primary principal of buying the best coin you can afford.
Due to my new mantra, I am now looking to purchase & collect with one eye on the investment, whether it be short or long term.
Am I right to assume that the raw coins are not slabbed coins? I have not yet aligned with slabbing or the MS grading process, however I feel that by delaying getting on board, I'm being left behind.
Are unslabbed, un-MS graded coins at a disadvantage in terms of investment or collectability?
You haven't been left behind because there are still plenty of bargains out there and if you buy raw(unslabbed) coins and and then get them slabbed yourself like I have been doing recently then you can make some serious value gains.You just need to be able to grade coins yourself and sometimes take a gamble on that out of focus photo and the more practice you have the better you'll get especially because it's your own money at risk
Quote from: 'coxspau' pid='65268' dateline='1421196535'This is all very interesting and timely given my transition into higher grade predecimals.
Due to limited resources, I'm still looking to follow the primary principal of buying the best coin you can afford.
Due to my new mantra, I am now looking to purchase & collect with one eye on the investment, whether it be short or long term.
Am I right to assume that the raw coins are not slabbed coins? I have not yet aligned with slabbing or the MS grading process, however I feel that by delaying getting on board, I'm being left behind.
Are unslabbed, un-MS graded coins at a disadvantage in terms of investment or collectability?
You are right on the raw v slabbed definition. Raw is defined as any coin not currently in a TPG holder (PCGS/NGC/ICG/ANACS.)
In terms of slabbing/MS grading process the best places to learn about these are either through Drake Sterling, Numis Bid or YouTube videos. The videos from YouTube have been compiled already at http://www.royalnumismatics.com/guide-to-third-party-grading.html
Unslabbed coins aren't at a big disadvantage at the moment as we have not yet attained the Status Quo that the US Numismatic Market has. However there are disadvantages in terms of investment as slabbed coins will always sell for more than if it was raw (In terms of a Slabbed MS62 compared to a Raw MS62.) In terms of collectability there are still a good deal of amazing coins which have not yet been graded which when picked up at the right price and graded can sell for a premium (I am looking at you stevo :P)
Over half the fleabay coins I buy that are out of focus/tiny image/one side only shown etc end up being losers. But it only takes some of them to be decent coins and financially you end up in front.
Doing your homework also helps. When I see a fuzzy image of a shiny coin with the blurb saying "GEM" then I go and look at the sellers other coins (including looking at the images of coins in the sellers feedback). If I find that the decent image coins show signs of polishing and are labelled with blurbs like "ChUnc" then I know the fuzzy image coin is probably a bad bet.
Only buy this way if your blood pressure can stand getting ripped off half the time (or the ecstatic feeling of getting a coin worth 10X what you paid for it).
See the problem is storage and handling of raw coins that makes it hard to get gradable coins. I suspect with the likes of Stevo out there eventually all raw coins will be ungradable problem coins. So now is the golden years of slabbing in Australia with old school collectors selling of their raw stock that has not yet been looked at by a grading professional such as Stevo.
I personally buy entire collections at auctions etc and find more whizzed, PVC affected, verdigris covered or cleaned coins than gradable coins and this is because most old school collectors had no idea how to handle or store coins and they have degraded ad a result. The best collection I have ever found was sitting in a box in envelopes untouched for 60+ years without being sorted by a coin collector in the last 40 years when PVC sleeves, shiny coins and velvet display cases were the rage
Then you have the inherited collections that have been poured out onto a table and slid around getting banged/scratched up all the way only to be touched all over then dumped in zip lock bags and put in moist conditions to rot for awhile because " I can't sell grandads coins, the are family heirlooms"
I have seen it all and the look of denial on peoples faces as I tell them that their collection is worthless because of how it was looked after and I am not interested in making an offer hurts.
However that is why I see slabbed coins as increasing in value as their is a finite supply that is getting smaller every year
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='65271' dateline='1421199970'Over half the fleabay coins I buy that are out of focus/tiny image/one side only shown etc end up being losers. But it only takes some of them to be decent coins and financially you end up in front.
Doing your homework also helps. When I see a fuzzy image of a shiny coin with the blurb saying "GEM" then I go and look at the sellers other coins (including looking at the images of coins in the sellers feedback). If I find that the decent image coins show signs of polishing and are labelled with blurbs like "ChUnc" then I know the fuzzy image coin is probably a bad bet.
Only buy this way if your blood pressure can stand getting ripped off half the time (or the ecstatic feeling of getting a coin worth 10X what you paid for it).
I'm in the same boat,enjoy the chase for the sake of a few $ and every so often you jag a special coin.A lot of the blurry(etc) images are deliberately(stating the obvious!) designed to confuse and mask the coin but there are the genuine ones also in the mix,i find most mobile phone images are genuine listings from time challenged youths/teenagers.
There is one seller on Ebay that takes nice clear photos but somehow gets a shadow around the date area of Pennies & Halves that makes the date appear "doubled",he got me again over Xmas with a 33 penny,it is the coin in the listing but with normal date then when challenged with side by side photos(his Ebay & mine) pleads ignorance.There is another seller that sneaks an Indian Obverse 27 or 31 into a bulk buy of 4 or more coins but it never turns up with the other coins and whilst he accepts returns pretends he doesn't know what all the fuss is about.
Ebay is certainly a jungle,extreme buyer beware even for the experienced collector.
As far as the OP goes it always quiet at this time of the year,Xmas to Easter with February often the worst/quietest Month of the year,great time to buy,poor time to be selling IMPO.
Quote from: 'oh my florin' pid='65270' dateline='1421198793'Due to limited resources, I'm still looking to follow the primary principal of buying the best coin you can afford.
Yes this is a commonly refered to tactic, and one I agree with to a point but have some reservations. If a person had x amount of dollars to spend and was looking at a coin on their wish list priced at that amount, are they really best to spend all their cash on one item, or should they consider spending less on a coin of slightly lower grade?
Any funds left over may allow the purchase of other coins on their wish list, and at the same time it would probably be appropriate to weigh up any projected gains in value of the group purchase compared to purchasing a single item of higher value.
Is the final outcome soley to do with investment or enjoyment? Sometimes it may be possible to have two bob each way.
Quote from: 'autocoupler' pid='65274' dateline='1421203006'Quote from: 'oh my florin' pid='65270' dateline='1421198793'Due to limited resources, I'm still looking to follow the primary principal of buying the best coin you can afford.
Yes this is a commonly refered to tactic, and one I agree with to a point but have some reservations. If a person had x amount of dollars to spend and was looking at a coin on their wish list priced at that amount, are they really best to spend all their cash on one item, or should they consider spending less on a coin of slightly lower grade?
Any funds left over may allow the purchase of other coins on their wish list, and at the same time it would probably be appropriate to weigh up any projected gains in value of the group purchase compared to purchasing a single item of higher value.
Is the final outcome soley to do with investment or enjoyment? Sometimes it may be possible to have two bob each way.
As it happens I dont have a wishlist as such but rely more on opportunistic purchases where the price is a good deal below the actual value but the key to this tactic is grading skill.If you get it wrong it might cost you.It also helps if you know where to look and 90% of my best coins come from ebay USA or ebay UK.It takes a bit of time and effort but it's worth it in the end and there aren't enough of you out there looking because I'm still able to buy unc George V coins dirt cheap
Quote from: 'autocoupler' pid='65274' dateline='1421203006'Quote from: 'oh my florin' pid='65270' dateline='1421198793'Due to limited resources, I'm still looking to follow the primary principal of buying the best coin you can afford.
Yes this is a commonly refered to tactic, and one I agree with to a point but have some reservations. If a person had x amount of dollars to spend and was looking at a coin on their wish list priced at that amount, are they really best to spend all their cash on one item, or should they consider spending less on a coin of slightly lower grade?
Any funds left over may allow the purchase of other coins on their wish list, and at the same time it would probably be appropriate to weigh up any projected gains in value of the group purchase compared to purchasing a single item of higher value.
Is the final outcome soley to do with investment or enjoyment? Sometimes it may be possible to have two bob each way.
Is it just me or is the original quote coming up as mine instead of coxspau?
I think you have appropriated the quote OMF.
Quote from: 'oh my florin' pid='65276' dateline='1421208549'Is it just me or is the original quote coming up as mine instead of coxspau?
My fault, I originally pasted your quote of the post from coxspau:dodgy: