Silver prices have dropped to just above $17 per oz US$ and the Aussie $ has dropped to 88cUS.
So in Aussie silver should be at AU$19 per oz but I do not see any real movement with collectable silver coins at the RAM or Perth Mints.
I am waiting for the Aussie $ to get back to being equal with the US$ which I believe will happen over the next 12 month + silver is a big chance to drop a whole lot further in value yet.
Happy silver buying soon to come.
I find it strange that some of the coin auctions have not dropped there res on silver coins even though in AU$ silver has dropped 20 -25% over the last 12 months.
I thought that silver sales drop when the bullion price is low?
A lot of silver stackers are buying big time. There does not seem to be a slowing in buying silver.
Bullion coins seem to be selling strongly at the Perth Mint.
Some people are saying this is silvers bottom price. Some are saying it is going lower.
I personally am buying proof coins at around $40 an oz as the coins seem to carry a good premium. To me it is a good bottom price.
Silver bars and rounds to me are way over priced but people are still buying them because the price does not seem to be dropping as the silvers chart tells us.
To make $ from PMs at the minute is to be dreaming!
"To make $ from PMs at the minute is to be dreaming! "
sorry - don't get that part?
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='61560' dateline='1414576253'"To make $ from PMs at the minute is to be dreaming! " sorry - don't get that part?
PM's - Perth Mint?
Precious metals?
Quote from: 'Triggersmob' pid='61568' dateline='1414584308'Precious metals?
Sounds good to me. :winkextra: Better than my suggestion. :whistle2:
Quote from: 'colour' pid='61556' dateline='1414571975'Silver bars and rounds to me are way over priced but people are still buying them because the price does not seem to be dropping as the silvers chart tells us.
To make $ from PMs at the minute is to be dreaming!
FWIW i agree but everyone to their own.
The hobby/novice collector,from what i can work out, think Gold is going to skyrocket because of ISIS and the usual middle-east conflicts and drag silver up with it.
In Oz. people have Tax refunds and as usual at this time of the year are buying Gold/Silver coins pushing the price up to ridiculous levels esp. on Ebay.I notice Bullion grade Sovereigns selling for $500-$600 which,even if Gold goes up to $2000(oz),means they will be lucky to break even in the years ahead.
All this is just my personal take on everything of course.
I think Precious Metals are most likely going to head down a bit further as the main contributors to their demand are no longer as strong as they used to be. In terms of the US economy recovering somewhat that will encourage investment in shares, derivatives and other speculative financial instruments (excl commodities) significantly reducing the demand for Precious Metals. India the largest importer of gold has placed tariffs on importing it which has further reduced demand. China has taken up the mantle now of the largest gold importer however also remember they are now the largest producer of gold too and as they move from rapid growth in terms of construction and manufacturing they will look to increase this production to gain access to gold at a price that the rest of the world can't compete with.
The only factors which may push up the gold price would be a war between the US and Russia (highly unlikely) or a collapse in terms of the European Unions Economy (quite possible.)
I am looking at interest rates in Australia. A couple of drops in interest rates and the Aussie $ has gone to US88c. So with interest rate looking like moving up next year in Aussie I would like to think it will come back to US$1.
Plus silver looks like slipping downwards next year as well. That is the way I see it only time will tell. These two things will put pressure on me to buy silver for the long haul.
Quote"To make $ from PMs at the minute is to be dreaming! "
sorry - don't get that part?
There is no money in PMs because they are going to stay very low in value for a long time. There will be very little profit because there value continues to fall. There is no sign what so ever that silver is on or going to be on the up side of value for a long time.
We are in a strong bottom movement that is happening after a long period of very high prices.
But PM coins Proofs in particular is very different. They seem to hold an extra value because they are simply a coin and not just bullion.
Quote from: 'Nevol' pid='61573' dateline='1414620906'Quote from: 'Triggersmob' pid='61568' dateline='1414584308'Precious metals?
Sounds good to me. :winkextra: Better than my suggestion. :whistle2:
yeah sounds good
colour still didn't qualify so i'll go with the logic
cheers
I get as much silver/gold as possible. I see the spot price as eventually going up when certain events occur.
The price is currently controlled by paper sales which is essentially a form of share market, buying a silver script doesn't actually mean you own the silver that you are buying. you are simply buy a share that is linked to the spot price of silver with no guarantee that the person selling you the script actually has an oz of silver in their possession. This market has pushed the price of silver down but we all know how share markets can tank if there is a run on them.
You also have huge amounts of actually "physical" silver being consumed never to be seen again. by consumed I mean iphones, sports clothing, medical sterilisation equipment, etc all use vast quantities of silver that will never be seen again. like oil, silver is a finite resource and the cost of actually obtaining it is getting higher as we are using our "low cost " mines up, yes they can always mine more but it is only worth accessing a lot of reserves if the price is high enough to pay for the increased cost so you have the normal supply/demand equilibrium forces here.
We also don't have nearly as much silver floating around in the form of silverware, coins, candlesticks etc as we did 100yrs ago as it has gradually been vacuumed up by refinery's and melted. This above ground reserves have feed most of the worlds consumption needs that's have skyrocketed in the last 25 yrs due to the massive increase in silver dependant technology.
when the physical shortage becomes apparent then silver will go up but in the meantime I buy it knowing that it will only become worthless if they find a replacement metal with all its properties or society no longer has a need for all the things it makes possible eg end off world stuff in which case it doesn't matter where your money is
I am sticking to watching the Aussie interest rate coupled with the silvers chart.
Well almost all collectables go up in price eventually.
In 1914 Australia printed 500 million KGV 1d red stamps. Over 8 years the printer used 422 shades of red because Germany was the red ink supplier at the time of WWI. The printer of the day had to mix all kinds of inks to get some sort of a red appearance and 100 years ago they were worth nothing. 100 year later their worth can be breath taking as do many pennies. So at the worst the 1d stamp is worth the same as penny at say $1.99 each.
Why would I want to invest heavily in silver that is going down in value when I can take my $10,000 and buy stock for my store and get a very nice return now?
If I can time a balance in how I invest/collect I can make more profit to buy more silver, cheaper at a later date. Works for me!
oh I diversify, I heavily collect and hoard numis as well as silver and gold in addition I have an underperforming share portfolio and several other assets. every successful investment I have ever made has been by doing what I think is best rather than what everyone else is doing. to date I have bucked the trend on what others do and followed my gut instinct rather than the popular trend. been 5 years since I had a "job" and havnt looked back. my family is going from strength to strength. I don't worry about money anymore and I enjoy what I do.
the one thing my gut is screaming is that silver is undervalued and will go up sooner rather than later. my main concern is that I will sell out to early
And Yes silver is a PM or precious metal.
Really like my coloured or not silver coins.
have you got a set of these ?
http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/SCARCE-2002-Australia-Flinders-Coin-Collection-4-x1oz-Silver-99-9-5000S-coins-/271581759079?pt=AU_Coins2&hash=item3f3b88c667&nma=true&si=MQkbT7R7L5Xm5Uz8qPxQf%252BiQuso%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
I got a set and they are great
No! 1st time I have seen that set! Really nice.
Goodonya serial I got taken out physically 2000. I can hold our home etc together but it is not an easy journey. I am very happy. On paper I have wealth but only small very important amounts come in each month and some months nothing at all.
Quotebeen 5 years since I had a "job" and havnt looked back. my family is going from strength to strength. I don't worry about money anymore and I enjoy what I do
http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/2008-EARLY-GOVERNORS-OF-AUSTRALIA-Five-Coin-Silver-Proof-Set-/171508151923?pt=AU_Coins2&hash=item27eeaeb673
here is another one I got a while back I love the Bligh one :)
Quote from: 'oh my florin' pid='61575' dateline='1414624689'The only factors which may push up the gold price would be a war between the US and Russia (highly unlikely) or a collapse in terms of the European Unions Economy (quite possible.)
Your forgetting the Swiss gold referendum in a few weeks that might succeed (about 40% for and 30% each against or undecided). That will force the Swiss National Bank to repatriate their gold from London and Canada and increase the gold from 6% to 20% of the reserves (that is 20% minimum and they will likely need more to cover fluctuations). Does London have those Swiss bars (or have they sold them) and can the gold mines provide another 300+ tons/year for 5 years? The gold will have to be actual gold and not paper gold. The lower the paper price of gold then the more tons of gold the Swiss will need to buy, if the price of gold goes to $3,000/oz then the Swiss will "only" have to buy 150 tons/year.
The Russians are also increasing their gold reserves at an increasing rate.
This comment is not mine.
"The 2,000 tonnes of gold were consumed by consumers in China."
The reply is not mine either.
" you are free to believe in what you want too, but there is zero proof that Russia, India, or China are buying massive amounts of gold and silver.
Again, IF that was true, prices would not be declining."
Interesting comments Hey!
Germany is still trying to get their gold back from USA that they requested years ago.
Chine recently received a cargo of Tungsten filled bars from the US that they got a bit grumpy about and as neil pointed out the Swiss are considering reverting to metal backed currency to ensure the strength of its currency internationally. QE (Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective.) or as I like to call it money printing is a tried and tested technique that coin collectors are fully aware of look at German million mark notes or Zimbabwe trillion dollar notes and how quickly it went from all is good to Sht hit the fan
in 1922 5000 of these http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Germany-1-Mark-1916-F-Almost-Uncirculated-Silver-Coin-Key-Date-/361089612055?pt=US_World_Coins&hash=item54129e3917
had the same face value as 1 of these http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/19th-November-1922-Germany-50000-Mark-SNo34967-/291277765253?pt=UK_Coins_Banknotes_GL&hash=item43d181fa85
I know which one I would have rather been holding in 1922
China does not consume gold per se , they hoard it. they love making medals, statues, cutlery etc out of it
this is government encouraged and as a result many people have floated theory's on this but the one that holds the most water with me is as follows
China intends to replace the us dollar as the international trade currency. It will do this by hoarding as much physical gold/silver as possible, via government controls (no chinese mined gold leaves the country directly) to encouraging population hoarding. once it has enough it will switch to a gold based currency like the US used to have 100 years ago eg 100 Yuan = 1 oz of gold and a 100 Yuan note can be exchange at a national bank for such.
It will then encourage all of the population to trade its gold in at a local government bank for paper money backed as per above. this will mean it will double the national wealth by printing internationally respected currency and having a massive gold reserve. This will undermine un backed currency internationally and increase the purchasing power of the Yuan. At the same time they can dump the Trillions of dollars of us currency they have in reserve on the market by purchasing hard assets internationally eg farms/banks/shares etc thus further undermining the Us currency. they will effectively invade the US or any country linked to US trade without firing a shot.
Should a government try to use military might to resist this act or repatriate the legally obtained property then they will face the largest standing army in the world that has huge stockpiles of the ferrous metals (iron ore) necessary to engage in a prolonged conflict and control of some of the worlds most significant rare earth mines needed to produce advance technology.
I have read a lot on PMs over a time.
Can really relate to your angle serial. Very interesting.
The Swiss still have a huge amount of gold from teeth that the Germans got from the mass destruction of the Jewish people. And no I am not Jewish!
The US is going down next year most probably. Financials and natural catastrophes are the order of the day and will destroy a war based country such as the US in the current world climate that we find ourselves in.
The next 8 years and I am full of conspiracies. The Caliphate has many prophecies come to pass about it already let alone the ones to come.
Conspiracies number one for me is 2014 & 2015 have two blood moons each year that fall on Jewish Festivals means a great deal in some quarters. This took place in 1947-48 & also 1966-67. I could say a lot more but I have been shut down on other forums on this issue. lol
This is a good reason to have silver and gold that can be used as currency. It was a big mistake that the Western world, as we know it, have made! And we are going to pay for it!
Silver in less than 1 oz coins is not popular but as our pre decimal currency says that smaller amount of silver make a lot of sense.
Must be getting close to Halloween (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrzMhU_4m-g)
(http://www.australian-coins.net/gallery/albums/userpics/11067/del.jpg)
Silver has just hit US$16.80 oz
Gold has just hit US$1,205 oz
So what will the Aussie $ do?
Our Mints have got to get the price of top quality PM coins at a better prices.
Come on Mints stop ripping people off.
Totally Hate Halloween and what it totally stands for in reality. To celibate that, that is evil covered up by its just having a bit of fun. Have my very powerful watering system set up already for any of those people come Friday night. lol
Silvers chart now: US$16.40 oz
Gold chart as now: US$1199.60 oz
So the comments are that PM prices are crashing because people are panic selling.
Buy heaps when PMs are expensive and sell when PM prices are low as! Very Sad!
Quote from: 'colour' pid='61591' dateline='1414644680'This comment is not mine.
"The 2,000 tonnes of gold were consumed by consumers in China."
The reply is not mine either.
" you are free to believe in what you want too, but there is zero proof that Russia, India, or China are buying massive amounts of gold and silver.
Again, IF that was true, prices would not be declining."
Interesting comments Hey!
http://online.wsj.com/articles/gold-demand-rises-in-china-india-1414057104
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/india-mulls-fresh-curbs-on-gold-imports-after-spurt-in-shipments-2014-10-31
Anyway in terms of China, India and Russia buying. The impact wouldn't be as significant on gold prices due to the West converting their precious metal reserves into cash and shares fuelled by the increasing confidence in the US economy as seen through the increasingly strong USD in exchange markets. This coupled with the other economies affected by the GFC which are coming out would put significant downward pressure on the gold price to combat the increased demand by China, India and Russia (India is trying to reduce this demand further through tariffs and quotas.) China and India are buying gold for Commercial and Industrial while Russia is using gold to try and stabilise their currency and national reserves against devaluation and stagflation due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. If demand increases with everything else staying the same you would expect an increase in precious metal prices as you stated however this is not the case as demand has indeed increased significantly the liquidation of national gold reserves to fuel economies with cash injections and private gold reserves to invest in other financial shares and derivatives has increased the supply of gold to the market even more leading to a lower price.
OMF there was a long period of nations liquidating their gold reserves (including the infamous Browns Bottom when Britain/Gordon Brown dumped its gold at the bottom of the market in the late '90s). National reserves have been collectively rebuilding for about 10 years now. The reserve figures are also not 100% accurate as China has probably been understating how much they have been accumulating and other nations are counting in their reserves large tonnages of gold that isn't there (like the German gold).
The supply is getting crunched; the "we buy gold" sort of places have sucked up most of the weakly held stuff and they are now buying far less than they could a few years ago.
Paper gold has been covering the shortfall and will continue to do so until it doesn't. That will be when the physical reserves are not enough to cover the deliveries and then like a bank run there will be lots of "owners" standing for delivery only to find shuttered doors and unanswered telephones.
What happens then is when the price gets interesting.
The USD isn't strong because of confidence in the US economy. The USD is just the least ugly pig in the fiat pig-pen.
Regardless of what people say, I shall snap any silver that I can at a reasonable price even if it is at current day price.
nealeffendi there are nations still selling their national gold reserves now however they are not willing to publicise it widely as it has a run on effect not only in the gold market but also in terms of the economy particularly inflation and the value of foreign currencies which is why the American treasury was attempting to manipulate the gold market to keep inflation down. Precious Metals aren't just a commodity anymore they are financial instruments and have exponentially strong economic effects giving countries significant incentive to manipulate it in anyway possible. I fully agree China is most likely supressing figures in terms of gold reserves to keep the price of gold down and those that are released are most certainly understated significantly. In terms of reserves countries will always try to overstate their gold reserves to make themselves seem significantly more financially stable.
In terms of gold speculation is key. It can happen when paper outweighs physical (think it happened in Japan a while ago and the market had to buy back paper gold to match physical gold) however remember physical gold is a commodity while paper gold is a derivative as such there will always be risks of deliveries not being made however the gold market is internationally traded so to get a run on the bank severe enough to cause non delivery would require shortfalls all over the world. Even during the GFC the rush for physical gold was not sufficient to cause this scenario to occur even when it affected the majority of the world particularly the largest gold trading economies.
In terms of the USD I know the US is currently in a lot of problems including stagflation, unsustainable debt and the recently ended quantitative easing however the US finance sector is essentially the largest financial hub and the USD has long been held as the international currency for transactions so with the immediate effects of the GFC over and the finance sector being backed by the government in terms of guarantees and bailouts it has regained confidence.
In terms of the USD and the US economy, confidence and fact are worlds apart. This is currently the case in the US, confidence is increasing in the economy but the fact is the economy is going terribly.
p.s. I enjoy arguing economics with you :D
The GFC never ended, QE was just an attempt at trying to borrow their way out of debt. Remove the trillions spent (using borrowed money) each year in the US economy and the economic stats for the US (and most western countries, excluding Australia) would show the economies are smaller than in 2008 (so a 6+ year recession). By spending money this way they have brought forward demand and sooner or later the stimulus will have to end (either by prudent choice or more likely in some form of economic rout such as bond markets seizing up). The longer extend and pretend goes for the bigger will be the economic reversal with a bigger overshoot to the downside. They have Hobsons Choice to face whatever they do; ZIRP has gutted the incomes of retirees and others dependant on interest income, companies are engaged in the crazy practice of borrowing cheap money to fund share buybacks and bonds cannot continue on a trajectory of lower yields forever and once yields rise then the trillions of debt will not be serviceable.
Australia is one of the few western nations that actually grew without manipulating the economic stats. Only problem is our economy grew on the multi trillion stimulus in China and their need for our iron ore and coal etc to make the 70 million empty apartments. China has blown a bigger bubble than the US and the stats are scary, for example China has used more cement in 5 years than the USA used in its entire history. The old economic saying was if America sneezed Australia caught a cold. Now once China sneezes we will get double pneumonia with SARS thrown in. Reverse the mining boom and we go back to exporting a quarter of the tonnage we do now at a quarter of the price (like the 1990s). The SARS will be the ending of Chinese investment in Aussie real estate. Where I live I see suburbs like where I work (Hurstville) having 80% of the new construction for Chinese investors and the Chinese investment causing the rising prices. Reverse that and a few hundred thousand tradies are out of work and every home buyer without 50% current equity will find they have negative equity.
Perversely a collapse in our economy (and currency) will boost the AUD price of PMs . Could end up with gold at 1,000USD but equal to 3,000AUD.
I also enjoy arguing economics with you. Having ghost written a number of economics papers for students I know there are no right answers.
I agree the GFC hasn't ended, I said the initial effects of the GFC are over the run on effects will take far longer to be resolved. On the other part of your argument it can't be defininitively proven either way as there are varied economic theories with vastly different outcomes. The one most opposite yours would be Keynsian economics which is in the short run economic output is influenced heavily by aggregate demand (aggregate supply takes longer to manipulate and change) so by providing the stimulus aggregate demand for goods and services increase exponentially due to the multiplier effect. Now this increase in aggregate demand is all well and good providing we are operating below Potential GDP above this we get inflationary pressures but below we are merely moving the economy to a point closer to full employment essentially increasing capital (both financial and labour) and by providing incentives technological innovation which will both increase the potential GDP.
Australia's dependence on China is unequivocal in terms of iron ore exports however iron isn't just used in construction of houses but also in manufacturing goods for export across the world. Add to this China's desire to become a superpower their concentration on their military is going to make up for the decrease in house construction as they move to build Aircraft Carriers, Aircraft, Guns, Missiles etc. Australia however should diversify a bit in this regard by exporting to India another high growth economy or by increasing domestic processing to increase production of higher value added goods. China is indeed Australia's key economy and frankly this reliance makes Australia exceptionally reliant on Beijing and Chinese State Policy. China at the moment is still moving up however and international tourism should increase exponentially as they become richer. Australia at the moment is concentrating heavily on providing tertiary education which should see tourism from China further increase but also an increase in permanent settlement should see house prices remain consistent if not rise in the long term.
The AUD as you said is ridiculously reliant on prevailing commodity prices. Which is ironically creatively nicknamed the commodity currency. So the AUD could depreciate rapidly however with Australian commodities being the primary inputs of a lot of production processes including advanced technology a depreciation below a certain level would very quickly slow it self down.
Anyway there are so many different theories you can't really mark anything as absolutely wrong as there is always some out there theory that supports it.
The Indian economy is suffering some of the problems of the Chinese economy (unsustainable growth financed by easy money policies). If (more likely when) the China bubble pops the other BRICS, the West and the world in general will all see serious economic disruption.
I wouldn't count on Chinese defence spending growth to require a few hundred million tons of iron ore a year (what currently is used in Chinese civil construction). If it did then we have a bigger problem with China engaging in expansionism on steroids and worse than Japan in the lead up to WW2. We already have a few signs of that with China now claiming parts of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Japan and using their navy to aggressively promote their claims.
Technological innovation will reduce demand for coal and iron ore, not increase it. Not much iron in Iphones and other technology. Carbon (nanotechnology, carbon tubes, buckyballs) will really cut demand for most of what we mine (even silver) within a decade.
Chinese tourism is good and brings in billions, same with education. Risk is that other countries will improve on what we have to offer and do a better job and at a rate we can't compete with. Or they cut back on expensive holidays once their property bubble pops.
Keynsian economics is good if practiced the old fashioned way, you save in good times to have saving reserves for stimulation in the bad times (same as the Pharaoh and the 7 good/bad years). What the theory has morphed (degenerated) into is a permanent stimulus and letting the future generations pay for it.
I think the current disruptions in growth in China and India are more in shifting their economic production from mass produced low value added products to more advanced technological production. I don't think China is in a bubble as the increased demand from increasing wages should help not only fuel consumerist tendencies but also as incomes rise an increase in savings and investment will provide even greater growth potential in the banking and finance sectors. The chances of economic disruption would be quite low as most of the Chinese economy is either directly or indirectly controlled by the state and with the control of the Chinese currency being firmly controlled and actively manipulated by the government. Combine this with the size and influences of China in manufacturing and any disruption of moderate size would cause utterly catastrophic global economic effects.
The Chinese military iron demand would be massive as it is not only building Carriers which from what I hear they have a number slated for construction but also construction of tanks and aircraft but also the construction of Chinese military installations including anti aircraft installations, new barracks, new military industries, new docks, new aircraft bases and massive dry docks, directed at the nations which they have claims against.
While I expect the Chinese military to build up massively over this year and the next as the US now has to start withdrawing their Carriers from the region due to financial constraints. China would love to throw it's weight around and with the West marginalising Russia they have inadvertently pushed China and Russia further together which when combined provide a massive amount of primary resources in terms of oil, gas, gold and other commodities which can not be influenced by the outside world without risking war.
Innovation will reduce demand for most commodities however innovation to the extent that Carbon technologies replace Iron and Steels would require an absolutely remarkable technological innovation. I mean look at manufacturing gold from nuclear transmutation we have been capable of doing it since around 1947 however even in 2014 it still isn't anywhere near economical to do so.
In terms of education the Nordic countries have always been great with education however the high tax rate is a significant barrier for their education industry. However this advantage for Australia may change with the privatisation of HECS loans and the indexation changing from inflation to bond based.
I agree Keynsian economics should always be only spending what you have which as you said save during the good and stimulate during the bad however this has changed primarily due to the short terms of politicians which use the economy as an election tool and try to buy votes with tax breaks during the good times. Unfortunately unless Australia turns into China democratically this will not change. This permanent stimulus is a risk as you state it however it is a non issue as long as Potential GDP remains above Real GDP. If Potential GDP is exceeded by Real GDP then the concern of future generations paying for it would certainly be a risk.
OMF, the Chinese banking system is a massive house of cards with a high percentage of non performing loans and more worryingly trillions in mispriced loan securities.Many loans are secured by collateral (such as copper) that has been used as collateral for multiple loans. The housing market there accounts for 70% of domestic savings and the rapid price rises of a few years ago have stopped. Now developers are having problems selling and the owners of the existing millions of empty apartment are looking at falling valuations. When they had rising valuations they would have felt flush and could splurge on that holiday to Australia, now they will rethink that next holiday.
As for China diverting excess steel from housing to the military the numbers don't wash. The US WW2 economy was 50% war related at the peak and total annual production of steel 80 million tons.Even if most of the steel went to military related needs it is still tiny compared to current Chinese steel production (800 million tons). So if China diverted 10% of steel production to the military then they would develop a far bigger military force than the 13 million men in the US military (1941-45).
Bottom line is China might cut steel production by 500 million tons and they would still be producing more than they did a decade ago.
The US carriers needed to be withdrawn as carriers are now just reefs in waiting and belong to a past era (read up on the hypersonic torpedoes that the Russians have or the scramjet technology that the Russians, Indians and Chinese are all perfecting).
The Chinese Banking sector has reworked it self away from the 20%+ rate of non performing loans in 2000 to now being around 1% of total loans. There has been scepticism of how they manage this and possibilities of extending payment periods and selling of bad debt have been around this has not been significant enough to raise it any meaningful amount. Their profitability has risen also as now out of the world's 1000 largest banks 32% of their total wealth is from Chinese Banks as of June this year.
In terms of Chinese real estate there is significant oversupply however considering China has 1/7th of the worlds population and with population growth averaging 0.49% meaning an additional 7 million population a year combined with increasing speculation by foreign investors buying up investment properties while they are cheap should mean excess housing supply is taken up quickly.
In terms of military demand comparing the WW2 US and present day China would be quite lopsided. In WW2 16 million Americans served equivalent to 11% of the population while China has 2.285 million serving equivalent to 0.18% of the population not including the 800,000 in reserves or the 1.5 million in Armed Police which are also reserves for the army. These numbers do not include the nearly 600 million in personnel which can be called up under military laws. The US in WW2 did not have to invest as much iron in domestic construction of military defences as it was primarily a pacific war and they already had a lot of the infrastructure for construction. This however is not the case in China where the threat is just across the border and although there has been construction of barracks there would still be a large amount of construction left to bring the Chinese capabilities up to manufacturing Carriers and all manner of military vehicles as well as coastal defences.
Carriers may be outdated but the Chinese don't believe they are. Nonetheless they are still diplomatically and militarily critical in the Asian theatre as it serves as a direct barrier between China and it's ambitions as China attacking a US Carrier would force Congress to declare war however China attacking Japan directly would not be far less convincing if you know what I mean. The Carrier presence is more a threat of wider hostilities rather than a threat in it's own right.
There are significant restrictions on foreigners buying property in China.You either need a minimum 1 year work visa to buy 1 unit or house and that is to live in. That won't make more than a minor dint in the 70 million empty units.
As for Chinas population growing by 7 million/year; average urban household is just under 3 people and the demographic trend is that China will have ZPG by 2029. So existing new empty apartments will cover the entire growth in population with more than 50 million apartments left over. Now that is enough apartments left to cover 150 million rural people moving to the cities. At this stage of development there might not be that many moving as there are now about 55% of the population already urbanised and of those left in the countryside a disproportionate percentage are elderly (not likely to move).
If China did mobilize it would solve their gender imbalance as they have 50 million males more than females.
It is doubtful that the US congress will ever declare war on China. For one thing Mitch McConnell may well become Senate majority leader today in the US elections and he is closely allied (via his Chinese in laws) with the Chinese government
The current restrictions are likely to be lifted however as China moves towards a market based economy lifting red tape as they push for higher economic growth in areas other than construction and manufacturing. Zero population growth was projected for 2030 under China's previous family planning laws which have recently been modified to increase their population. Also China's tourism is still quite low due to hostilities between them and their neighbours as well as the Chinese governments unpredictable actions at times in both domestic and international matters. The rate of Urbanisation has slowed however as China moves to higher value added production they will be less reliant on their rural country side as they can import food from Australia and other countries (believe they are trying to buy Graincorp our largest grain producer.)
On declaring war remember John Kerry he was one of the staunchest anti war supporters back during the Vietnam war now he is pushing for US involvement in the Middle East and he is the Secretary of State now so anything is possible. Also on family relations preventing war back in Tsarist Russia, Tsar Nicholas II married a German and that didn't prevent Russia joining WW1 against Germany.
A change in the family planning policy will not have a noticeable effect on housing demand for 25 years (other than maybe increasing the demand for bigger apartments).
Graincorp doesn't produce any grains, it just buys, transports and ships what the farmers produce. China is buying up farmland both here and elsewhere (especially in their African colonies). I'm only half jesting when I say colonies as within a decade a number of African countries will be so completely dependant on China they will be colonies in all but name and have large Chinese immigrant populations (in parts of Angola they are now over 10% of the population and rising).
Chinese tourism is massive in Thailand and a number of other Asian countries.
Mitch McConnell doesn't just have Chinese in laws (his father in law was a classmate of Jiang Zemin and McConnell has met Zemin a number of times), he is also a close ally of the Chinese government and sponsored Chinas most favoured nation trading status in the US. As the Chinese governments representative in Washington he can sway any anti China vote.
If a US aircraft carrier was sunk I'm sure that the Chinese would make sure that the evidence was equivocal (China/Russia/NK/Iran?) and congress wouldn't know what to do. BTW a recent navel exercise showed that the US would lose all their ships within hours of a war breaking out. Another exercise showed that if a major war broke out in the Middle East the Iranians would succeed in sinking all US ships in the Persian Gulf.
China is many years away from a market based economy as there are major hurdles (the Communist Party for one) to overcome.
Silver spot is at $15.34 at the moment, It has lost about 25% of its value in the last week or so.
Gold is also down at $1,141.90.
It is a shame that the low price for silver hasn't been reflected in the prices of Silver products from either RAM or the Perth Mint.
It has been below $20 per Oz for months now and RAM still want $50 per each 9g Coin with a melt value of $5.40 at todays prices:dodgy:
It is spinning me too trout.
Auction res as well are not selling at all but they will not bring the PM price down.
They just will not drop the auction prices.
I am thinking another 6 months before we can see any real correction in prices.
Have noticed that there is plenty of good buys in the US so why not in the land of OZ.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='61978' dateline='1415303938'It is a shame that the low price for silver hasn't been reflected in the prices of Silver products from either RAM or the Perth Mint.
It has been below $20 per Oz for months now and RAM still want $50 per each 9g Coin with a melt value of $5.40 at todays prices:dodgy:
Trout, I paid $27 for a 2015 kookaburra on Friday (Downies), perfect looking and in a capsule and a full ounce. That is under 24USD so I'm only paying a fiver more than yanks pay for bullion ASEs by the tube.
So why buy the 9g grannybait? (yes, that is rhetorical as I'm sure it's for your $1 set, but as another thread has shown there are lots of collectors getting fed up with the flood of pricey RAM dollar coins).
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='61988' dateline='1415316148'Quote from: 'trout' pid='61978' dateline='1415303938'It is a shame that the low price for silver hasn't been reflected in the prices of Silver products from either RAM or the Perth Mint.
It has been below $20 per Oz for months now and RAM still want $50 per each 9g Coin with a melt value of $5.40 at todays prices:dodgy:
Trout, I paid $27 for a 2015 kookaburra on Friday (Downies), perfect looking and in a capsule and a full ounce. That is under 24USD so I'm only paying a fiver more than yanks pay for bullion ASEs by the tube.
So why buy the 9g grannybait? (yes, that is rhetorical as I'm sure it's for your $1 set, but as another thread has shown there are lots of collectors getting fed up with the flood of pricey RAM dollar coins).
Silver is at about $18 AUD per Oz at the moment, You paid a $9 premium for the Kook .
Yes the Silver 9g coins are WAY overpriced and I imagine that RAM will lower the price after most collectors will be staying away in droves for their latest 26 coin issue :angel:
The silvers chart has been interesting over the last week.
Silver has stayed in the US$15oz area. No big bounce in price. Just sideways price movement really.
Looks like silver could be going down a lot more still in value.
A kilo silver Bullion coin is looking good.
It would be nice to get a kg silver coin at around $500. Here's hoping! There about $600 at the Perth Mint at present. Some other Mints have them at higher values.
Still a time to wait and see.
Have just been looking around at silver coins.
A kg of 1966 50c coins about 2 years ago AU$1,000 now AU$650
A kg coin from Perth Mint + others about 2 years ago AU$ 1,300 now AU$650
Looks like the 1966 50c coins win!
1966 50c is 80% silver - not pure
so the kilo coin is the value winner
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='62362' dateline='1415945709'1966 50c is 80% silver - not pure
so the kilo coin is the value winner
I think what colour is saying is that the round fifties have held their value better than pure bullion coins regardless of them only being 80% silver.
I would also hazard to guess that getting pre decimal silver coins at spot would be pretty hard at the moment as well.
oh ta
thanks for the explanation
Even eBay's silver coins are still being listed at over inflated prices.
It is silly! A lot of silver bullion coin are more costly than buying from the mint's and not by small margins but large ones.
I don't really think you can expect ebay sellers to strictly follow any fluctuation in bulk silver prices.
Surely it all boils down to the seller wanting to sell it for whatever they want / need to?
As an example if I had bought a silver coin for $10 (assuming that was the silver price at the time), I would hardly be listing it now for $3 just because that represents the silver price now.
Or, to put it in a term you could probably relate to better ....... it would be like people pricing their stamps based on the spot value of perforated paper.
I went to the USA in 1981 , while waiting for our plane at the L A airport I went to the bank to change some money and I saw
one oz silver bars with J F K . on them , how much for 3 I asked the lady in charge , answer was $ 33.00 U S dollars each , so I bought 3 of them $ 100 . U S dollars
33 years later I still have them , what are they worth now around
$15. aust dollars ea = $ 45 . for 3 of them if I am lucky ,
sorry they are not for sale . I thought he was a great president , so they are my keepsake of him .
,, kel ,,
Kel, the old JFK art cameo bars usually sell for over 40 USD each, that is near 50 AUD.
thanks for that Neal , sounds good to me .
now you can see how dumb some people can be when it comes to buying and selling , I never thought of that , I thought of only the silver value in each bar , if I was desperate for money , I would have put them up for sale at bullion silver prices , around $ 15.00 ea
thank you Neal for letting me know that .. ,, kel ,,
Silver has just gone into the US$14oz area.
Can only mean happier days for coin collectors.
where do you get your prices colour?
This is the real time Perth Mint values
Gold USD 1,158.93
Silver USD 15.22
Gold AUD 1,374.44
Silver AUD 18.05
silver has gone up a touch today - at 11.30 this morning this was the Perth mint Ask prices:
Perth Mint
AUS$
Gold AUD 1,374.57
Silver AUD 17.87
I follow a US coin forum and there is a Gold & Silver thread that interests me. At the top of the precious metals forum they have 4 charts for Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium
Like I follow the price of silver in US$ as well as the US$ value for the Aussie $.
And at this very minute the silvers chart is at US$14.93
The Perth Mint spot price is at AU$18.05.
I find the silver price is always behind at the Perth Mint and there chart very hard to follow.
I think the prices can go up and down like a yo yo
but down seems to be more the operative word lately
As silver coin collectors we get price coverage because the coin value.
But the people that have purchased silver( gold for that matter) at $40+per oz and their investment has of this minute is at US$14.86oz I really feel their pain.
As a silver coin collector there are some very expensive coins that I never thought I could buy but they are getting into my price range now and the 2nd Jan is a day I will look very seriously at buying a set of 2015 silver coins.
From other info I am working with it is very possible that silver will drop a lot more.
The big question is: will silver's value drop into single numbers.
I don't think that the Mint drops the retail price when the bullion goes down
I think they sit firm with their retail prices
Yes very much!
The mint will drop bullion coins to their just above spot price.
Our $100 silver coins should drop to $60 or even less but they do not and I get that ripped off feeling from our mints as the price of silver falls off the chart.
Most of my silver coin buys are from auctions only.
I am a firm believer that most coin collectors will only buy gold and silver coins based on bullion value and not real market value.
I know I do.
Quote from: 'Goldseeker' pid='63182' dateline='1417427341'I am a firm believer that most coin collectors will only buy gold and silver coins based on bullion value and not real market value.
I know I do.
It depends. Are they buying as stackers or as collectors?
I buy gold and silver coins based on spot if the important part is the gold and silver (junk silver, one ounce rounds etc) not the coin.
But if they a numismatic items then the fact they are made of gold/silver is not the important part but that they are nice coins is what I'm buying them for.
Do you really care about the spot price when buying a coin worth thousands?
Quote from: 'Goldseeker' pid='63182' dateline='1417427341'I am a firm believer that most coin collectors will only buy gold and silver coins based on bullion value and not real market value.
I know I do.
I wish you luck getting Proclamation coins at spot :)
Quote from: 'trout' pid='63191' dateline='1417464825'Quote from: 'Goldseeker' pid='63182' dateline='1417427341'I am a firm believer that most coin collectors will only buy gold and silver coins based on bullion value and not real market value.
I know I do.
I wish you luck getting Proclamation coins at spot :)
You never know, I got a lot of bullion silver a couple of years ago and found a proof sixpence in aFDC in them. Last year I purchased a hammered Ottoman gold coin for around spot, as old as a Proclamation and way rarer.
So silver is at US$16.70 per oz but The Little Aussie Bleeder is at US$0.77.
The Perth Mint has silver at AU$22.50 and a 1oz bullion coin at AU$30.30
18 months ago the Aussie $ was at US$1.12.
Silver is not looking so good anymore to me.
Aussie $ is looking softer. A possible world recession looms.
Which would make the Aussie $ stronger?
I have jumped the fence into greener pastures!
Gold is up a bit and is only some 12% of its all time high as people rush to secure their wealth in the tradional safe haven of gold. It will only be a matter of time before the gsr (gold to silver ratio) returns to more normal levels and gold drags the price of silver back up to the $30 mark.
I have recently sought to move some of my gold into silver at current rates. Plus with the Aussie dollar going soft I see silver as a better store of wealth than a bank balance with less purchasing power
Thanks For Sharing serial.
I have been looking at silver coins for the last 2 years fairly seriously and have made some great buys. There is a strong possibility that as Feb peels into history I will go back to buying silver coins.
serial I could help but see that you are using knowledge and experience to position your gold and silver into a better position.
I did the same type of thing but have gone back to my horticulture experience as an investment and safe haven. Hopefully I will have a hothouse and greenhouse 14m x avg 3.5m built and finished by the end of this month also full of stock. So stamps have paid for it all! Could not bring myself to sell my coins. lol
It has been over 20 years since I have done anything in horticulture but I have a love for orchid! So orchids it is. It is a bit of a holiday as well and then back into silver coins. :)
Interesting
Quote from: 'colour' pid='66373' dateline='1422769955'Thanks For Sharing serial.
I have been looking at silver coins for the last 2 years fairly seriously and have made some great buys. There is a strong possibility that as Feb peels into history I will go back to buying silver coins.
serial I could help but see that you are using knowledge and experience to position your gold and silver into a better position.
I did the same type of thing but have gone back to my horticulture experience as an investment and safe haven. Hopefully I will have a hothouse and greenhouse 14m x avg 3.5m built and finished by the end of this month also full of stock. So stamps have paid for it all! Could not bring myself to sell my coins. lol
It has been over 20 years since I have done anything in horticulture but I have a love for orchid! So orchids it is. It is a bit of a holiday as well and then back into silver coins. :)
Similarly for me my plants pay for many of my coin purchases and just starting to sell my old stamp collection with a few surprising results so far
Very interesting stevo!
It is nice to have a variety of things to buy and sell.
Glad to hear selling plants & stamps have helped to build your coin collection.
All The Very Best. colour
stevo1962 , do you want any foxtail palm seeds ,???
I have plenty of them if you want any ??? . ,, kel ,,
Quote from: 'keldaw' pid='66411' dateline='1422843960'stevo1962 , do you want any foxtail palm seeds ,???
I have plenty of them if you want any ??? . ,, kel ,,
Thanks for the offer Kel but Foxtail palms were distributed worldwide from here in Cairns originally and our Council planted out thousands of confiscated trees when they were illegal more than 20 years ago hence the abundance of them up here.They are now all over the world thanks to the black market trade and the trees also take up too much space so I might pass on them
thanks Steve , I did not know that , I paid $ 75.00 ea for mine , years ago because the guy said they were not every where and it was illegal to bring them out of the rain forest up north qld and were only allowed to be sold by nurseries , but that was many years ago.
rules have changed a lot by the sound of it , ok no problems and thanks for letting me know .. ,, kel ,,
We moved the coin blog (http://australian-threepence.com) over to it's own server this week because I was getting screwed with excess bandwidth charges from the ex-web-host. Anyhoo, putting it onto the new server opens up all sorts of opportunities for pointless geeky tinkering productive work. One idea I had was an interactive historical silver/gold price chart that pulls data from a free web service. As a proof of concept I built something this afternoon in Excel that does largely the same thing. You can set a date range and a currency and then it goes off to the interwebz and grabs the information you need and plots it in a graph. It seems to work ok so PPH and I thought it would be a good idea to release it so we have.
You can find the whizzbang historical silver price spreadsheet here (http://www.australian-threepence.com/historical-silver-bullion-price-spreadsheet/). You need a moderately up-to-date version of Excel and you need to allow macros to run for it to work correctly. There's a link on the page explaining how to enable macros if you haven't already.
Any feedback would be appreciated.
You can log into kitco and get all that :angel:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='67338' dateline='1424423781'You can log into kitco and get all that :angel:
No, you can't get it into a spreadsheet. I've been using Kitco for years and while it's OK, it doesn't share data well.
Quote from: 'markn' pid='67339' dateline='1424424377'Quote from: 'trout' pid='67338' dateline='1424423781'You can log into kitco and get all that :angel:
No, you can't get it into a spreadsheet. I've been using Kitco for years and while it's OK, it doesn't share data well.
OK
I may have to look into this a bit further but I sold most of my junk silver/ bullion at $48 per Oz a while back.
I have found that when the price of Silver hits a high there is a proliferation of Genuine "Unsearched" lots on eBay because people are simply cashing in their collections and that is the best time to buy because the "Noodling" can be rather good :yahoo:
I'm hoping the Mark-magician will figure out how to convert to AUD soon too!