Think I asked this question on the old forum but can't remember if there were any opinions:dodgy:. So the question is, is there an accepted remaining percentage of Australian pre decimal coinage. I seem to remember a figure of 5% being mentioned somewhere.
oops, forgot the pre
Quote from: 'autocoupler' pid='49671' dateline='1400630141'Think I asked this question on the old forum but can't remember if there were any opinions:dodgy:. So the question is, is there an accepted remaining percentage of Australian pre decimal coinage. I seem to remember a figure of 5% being mentioned somewhere.
oops, forgot the pre
Too many variables to say it is 5%. Lots of pre '46 silver was melted by the government to repay the US. Lots melted unofficially by sailors and others taking it to HK and other melting pots.
Also natural attrition would have wiped out lots of early stuff. Cherry picking means the scarce dates have a better chance of surviving.
Then the RAM reports from 40 years ago mention recalls and melting post '66.
Also 50 tons of pennies were shipped to NZ back in '66.
Anecdotes from about '65 in ACR also mention that the collecting bug had removed most of the Geo V pennies from circulation. It was so bad that in mid '65 Melbourne mint had to strike more pennies and they were purposely dated '64 so they wouldn't be horded.
So only rough guesstimates and no consensus on the remainder.
Interesting topic, I think I have read similar figures.!!
I would also be interested to discover what percentage of forum members still consider pre-decimal as their main collecting focus.
Fairly obvious that we are a diverse bunch, both in coin types and presentation. :idea:
I think that the percentage remaining is irrelevant as I thought that the mintage figures determine scarcity etc
millions of 1966 50c have been melted (and many melted overseas and not legally?) but people still say that they 'are çommon'
maybe in another 20 or so years the 'remaining' figures might make a difference?
without mint records then I reckon we don't really know
Thanks one and all for your thoughts on this. My motive for asking is from the point of view of a variety collector, as I believe there are some varieties within the early pre decimal dates of high mintage that today could be considered extremely scarce.
Without wanting to offend collectors of die cracks, cuds, die damage and so on, I'm mainly referring to unique die differences centred around the varying position of date numerals. A good example is the 1922 penny with a stated mintage of 12,697,000, and probably thought of as one of the poor relations, particularly in earlier times when the benefit of research from the 1960's or before wasn't so much available prior to then. Because of their lack of notoriety I doubt if these coins would have been cherry picked for varieties, therefore I don't think it unreasonable to assume that a disproportionate number of varieties remain.
Sorry if this is turning into a bit of a ramble on, but this subject is something I've put some time into over the past decade. Detailed
research carried out by others, and supported by visual evidence, has identified many examples i.e. Wide date, Extra wide date, spike on tail of the 9, left leaning 9, as well as flat and curved base lettering in the reverse legend. There is other research suggesting further differences exist, unfortunately, accessing clear descriptions backed by visual evidence isn't possible.
Over this time I've been able to locate and identify other examples that differ further in date width and numeral alignment, may be they fall into the group that suffers from unclear description. Anyhow, this brings me to the point of the original question of remaining percentages. If a reliable ball park figure ha ha was at hand:dodgy:, I think the remaining numbers of some varieties for the 1922 penny could be considered extremely scarce and rare in better grade. Based on a figure of 5%, for one variety in particular, I believe there could be as few as 500 examples remaining.
Agree with your synopsis, most gloss over the 'minor varieties' ,which gives you more chance to find the rare gem.!! I have spent the last 12 months sifting through my childhood buckets of pennies and halfpennies and I have reached the rough total of 700 errors and varieties.!!
Not too fussed if they are minor laminations all the way through to super rare die cracks, they keep me busy and I try and share any doubles with anyone who appreciates them.!!
Quote from: 'Robster' pid='49752' dateline='1400684173'I have spent the last 12 months sifting through my childhood buckets of pennies and halfpennies and I have reached the rough total of 700 errors and varieties.!!
My Mother had two big old long socks full of coppers that she used to pay the baker and milkman with, and remember building castles with them on the veranda. I wasn't thinking of dates in those days:rolleyes:
Neal,or someone,OT but is there anyway to tell the difference between the Sydney & Melb. minted 1926 Penny. I have a vague recollection in my head that there was some discussion on mintage figures back in the 1960's and some felt the 1926 Mintage was over estimated/inflated for some reason.
Renniks figures from the other Thread.
http://www.australian-coins.net/showthread.php?tid=2536&page=2
Quote from: 'Basil' pid='49768' dateline='1400715444'Neal,or someone,OT but is there anyway to tell the difference between the Sydney & Melb. minted 1926 Penny. I have a vague recollection in my head that there was some discussion on mintage figures back in the 1960's and some felt the 1926 Mintage was over estimated/inflated for some reason.
Renniks figures from the other Thread.
http://www.australian-coins.net/showthread.php?tid=2536&page=2
On 2/9/26 a letter from the Sydney Mint (Christie to Le Souef) requested 3 reverse dies dated 1926. Also mentioned that the only reverse penny dies on hand were dated 1924.
On 16/9/26 a letter from Le Souef to Christie notified that penny dies had been forwarded the previous day.
So as Sydney struck 640,800 pennies from early September to mid October '26 it probably had to have used both 1924 and 1926 dated reverse dies as there is little chance that 3 dies could strike so many and if Sydney had already struck 180 pounds (face) of pennies that were sent to store on the 8/9/26 it proves that they were still using the '24 dies.
I don't trust any mintage figure unless I have personally checked the mint records and the catalogues just parrot/regurgitate pap.
On my To Do list (next year?) is a thorough investigation into identifying the working dies for 1926. That might identify the 3 dies that Sydney used.
OK,Thanks,i'll be interested to see the results when you find the time to look at 1926 mintages & dies used.
well I just picked up 4kg of un-noodled post 46 silver coins that I am currently going through
given that I find a lot of hoards like this I will say there are a lot more out there than you think
Quote from: 'serial' pid='49939' dateline='1400840584'well I just picked up 4kg of un-noodled post 46 silver coins that I am currently going through
given that I find a lot of hoards like this I will say there are a lot more out there than you think
It's very exciting to get an unsorted bulk lot.I hope you find some nice keepers
I bet that cost you a bit Stevo1962?
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='50700' dateline='1401443800'you guys need a 1922 thread
this is interesting stuff
Is it possible to start a new thread as robbiegal suggests, and then move relevant posts across?
Quote from: 'autocoupler' pid='50760' dateline='1401497664'Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='50700' dateline='1401443800'you guys need a 1922 thread
this is interesting stuff
Is it possible to start a new thread as robbiegal suggests, and then move relevant posts across?
Yes. Start the thread and I'll move the posts.
Quote from: 'markn' pid='50773' dateline='1401502028'Quote from: 'autocoupler' pid='50760' dateline='1401497664'Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='50700' dateline='1401443800'you guys need a 1922 thread
this is interesting stuff
Is it possible to start a new thread as robbiegal suggests, and then move relevant posts across?
Yes. Start the thread and I'll move the posts.
Done. (http://www.australian-coins.net/showthread.php?tid=2633)
Quote from: 'autocoupler' pid='49750' dateline='1400683555'Sorry if this is turning into a bit of a ramble on, but this subject is something I've put some time into over the past decade. Detailed
research carried out by others, and supported by visual evidence, has identified many examples i.e. Wide date, Extra wide date, spike on tail of the 9, left leaning 9, as well as flat and curved base lettering in the reverse legend. There is other research suggesting further differences exist, unfortunately, accessing clear descriptions backed by visual evidence isn't possible.
Over this time I've been able to locate and identify other examples that differ further in date width and numeral alignment, may be they fall into the group that suffers from unclear description. Anyhow, this brings me to the point of the original question of remaining percentages. If a reliable ball park figure ha ha was at hand:dodgy:, I think the remaining numbers of some varieties for the 1922 penny could be considered extremely scarce and rare in better grade. Based on a figure of 5%, for one variety in particular, I believe there could be as few as 500 examples remaining.
Just a follow up on how the figure of 500 remaining examples previously quoted was arrived at. The variety in question is the coin belonging to group 2 of the 1922 penny and referred to in the 1922 Penny thread. Some years ago I did a survey of 1922 pennies listed on ebay. The survey lasted for 14 weeks and 268 London obverse coins were sighted, of which none were from group 2. However, over an overall embracing period of 9 years I know there were 9 coins from group 2 sighted, 8 were on ebay, the other was from a dealer. Lets be a little loose and say all 9 were from the survey, so I figure if a possible 268 coins were hypothetically sighted for every 14 weeks of the 9 year period, it would equate to approx. 9000 coins in total. Knowing that just 9 group 2 coins were sighted in that time, gives a rate of occurrence of 1 in 1000. I know, I hear the jibes about creative accounting, but I reckon the result wouldn't be far off the mark. Now for the easy part.
We all know the total mintage for the 1922 penny was about 12,700,000, of these I think it's generally accepted that 80% are London obverse, giving a total of 10,160,000 Londons. When a remaining pre decimal currency figure of 5% is applied to this, a gestimated 508,000 Londons will remain. Remembering the rate of occurrence being 1 in 1000 for group 2 coins, this will leave approx. 500 remaining. Works for me:dodgy::cool:
Doesn't work for me. 5% is a rough estimate for all pre decimals, but I reckon that the survival rate for Geo V pennies is higher. I have old survey results from the 1940s and 1950s of pennies and over 50% had survived. By 1965 some of those would have been lost but still a good number would have been around. Several reports from 1965 indicates that most Geo V pennies had been pulled from circulation by collectors. So my guess is that at least 25% had survived to be in collections/hoards. Post '66 the attrition rate would be low. So the remaining number could be a couple of thousand. Still a nice rarity.
For Geo V silver it is probably less than 5% because most was recalled long before collecting became popular.
I'll run my numbers on the various positions in 6-12 months as I have to finish my research on a few other papers before I get to do my '22s.
Still I'm pleased that there are other collectors out there who are as passionate about varieties.
Thanks for that Neal. 25% is an awful lot of copper laying around, no wonder the sea's rising :angel: This is all conjectural, 5%, 25%, who knows, and an accurate perspective may never eventuate but it sure is fun to speculate. In my opinion the 1922 pennies were not a favourite, a poor relation so to speak, and I don't believe they were sought after anywhere near like other dates of the Geo V's. My Father was a keen collector back in the early sixties, and like many others of that time, sourced hundreds of pennies from the banks and I know just about all the 22's went back. Many were indeed kept out of circulation, but I doubt if their numbers are in proportion to their comparatively high mintage. I'm guessing a disproportionate number went to the melting pot compared to other Geo V's.
The thing is, for many years now collectors / sellers etc have been syphoning the known wide date varieties from a larger pool out there in hoarder land, and compressing into a much smaller market pool. It's in this smaller pool that we find the coins from Groups 2 and 3 that were in the main unknowingly plucked from the large pool by the noodlers who wrongly thought them to be wide dates. Because of this, when the population numbers are crunched, the rate of occurrence is not truly representative of their scarceness. I suspect that if it was possible to calculate their rate of occurrence as they sat in the larger hoarder pool, the rarity rating would increase dramatically. Here's food for thought, how about the larger the hoarder pool, the higher the rarity:dodgy: Anyhow, looking forward to you doing your numbers on this.
Interesting topic ... how would anyone know unless a censis ?