When first discovered there was a figure of 400 bandied about as to the mintage numbers of this coin.
This however is now WAY underestimated and just looking at the pop reports on PCGS alone 129 coins graded so far and many more to follow makes the 400 figure look totally wrong.
Unless someone picked up the problem at the Mint early there is a possibility that 200.000 of these could have been minted, As that is the average lifespan of a die.
Is there a definitive mintage figure for these coins ? Or is it just a guestamate that has proven to be quite wrong?
The population report on PCGS shows;
AU55 = 47
Au58 = 38
MS62 = 16
These sort of numbers do NOT make these an extremely rare coin at all , they are simply scarce.
Here are the Bluesheet valuations
AU55 = $1400
AU58 = $2150
MS62 = $4400
I personally would consider that these coins are way overvalued at the moment.
I consider that the values are sustained purely by the "hype" associated with these coins and has nothing to do with their actual rarity or availability.
This has been another "Thinking outside the square" moment from Trout :ok:
They are overvalued I reckon.
If I had one I would sell now.
Quote from: 'echidna' pid='45786' dateline='1396607241'They are overvalued I reckon.
If I had one I would sell now.
:agreed:
I think that the window of opportunity is closing as more coins are graded and slabbed then offered for sale.
the good thing for the average collector is that when the bubble finally bursts on these , Maybe just Maybe they can acquire a average coin for a reasonable price for their collection :good:
I don't know where Mr McDonald got that figure of 400 but he had been advised of more sensible numbers so he has no excuse.
In 2005, I estimated 6000 were released into circulation. This was not a wild guess. This was based on how often they were being found in the few locations where they were being found. Personally I looked through more than 2.3 million dollar coins in Perth from 2004 to 2006. The hit rate by 2006 (when I left Perth) had halved as they were actively sought in Perth and not just by coin collectors largely because in late 2004 there was an article in The West Australian which was either written by Scott Wren or in which he was interviewed (I cannot remember which).
Key dates are the first that will be sent to PCGS in quantity. For example look at the comparatively large number of 1968 1c, 2c and 20c.
The large number of mules slabbed is partly my fault. I have had about 60 sent over.
I also firmly believe that the last two posters may wish to reconsider their "opininions" on the basis of some facts.
I'm not a mule fan, but don't get caught up with the numbers of the population report. Just because there are more being slabbed, it doesn't change a coins rarity. The reason that there are so many mules graded, is because they're actually worth slabbing.
Have a look at a few other examples on the population report. (these are just a few)
1923 Halfpennies - 75 graded.
1968 1c pieces - 210 graded
1968 2c pieces (not including no sd ) - 199
These coins have higher populations that many of the other coins in the series, does that make them any less rare.
(I guess emu666 beat me to it!)
Quote from: 'emu666' pid='45790' dateline='1396608734'I don't know where Mr McDonald got that figure of 400 but he had been advised of more sensible numbers so he has no excuse.
In 2005, I estimated 6000 were released into circulation. This was not a wild guess. This was based on how often they were being found in the few locations where they were being found. Personally I looked through more than 2.3 million dollar coins in Perth from 2004 to 2006. The hit rate by 2006 (when I left Perth) had halved as they were actively sought in Perth and not just by coin collectors largely because in late 2004 there was an article in The West Australian which was either written by Scott Wren or in which he was interviewed (I cannot remember which).
Key dates are the first that will be sent to PCGS in quantity. For example look at the comparatively large number of 1968 1c, 2c and 20c.
The large number of mules slabbed is partly my fault. I have had about 60 sent over.
I also firmly believe that the last two posters may wish to reconsider their "opininions" on the basis of some facts.
They are scarce but not rare.
If I had the money I could easily buy half a dozen or so next week.
That is not a rare coin in my opinion.
QuoteI also firmly believe that the last two posters may wish to reconsider their "opininions" on the basis of some facts.
I would "reconsider" my opinion if there were some SOLID facts regarding the mintage figures of this coin.
At the moment there are NO definitive figures other than conjecture and guesswork by various identities and nothing solid from the Mint as of yet.
At the moment I DO believe that the valuations of these coins ARE being upheld by Hype and not based on solid evidence.
The sheer number of these coins discovered and still being discovered seems to dispel the belief that they are SUPER rare.
I am In NO way posing these questions to "Bag" the mulies , I just want to gather some definitive data on these coins.
So lets put our thinking caps on instead of getting all defensive and hunt down some conclusive facts on this highly interesting decimal coin.
At the moment there seems to be a shroud of secrecy and mystique around this coin.
I would rather deal with facts than urban legends :ok:
Quote from: 'echidna' pid='45793' dateline='1396611685'Quote from: 'emu666' pid='45790' dateline='1396608734'I don't know where Mr McDonald got that figure of 400 but he had been advised of more sensible numbers so he has no excuse.
In 2005, I estimated 6000 were released into circulation. This was not a wild guess. This was based on how often they were being found in the few locations where they were being found. Personally I looked through more than 2.3 million dollar coins in Perth from 2004 to 2006. The hit rate by 2006 (when I left Perth) had halved as they were actively sought in Perth and not just by coin collectors largely because in late 2004 there was an article in The West Australian which was either written by Scott Wren or in which he was interviewed (I cannot remember which).
Key dates are the first that will be sent to PCGS in quantity. For example look at the comparatively large number of 1968 1c, 2c and 20c.
The large number of mules slabbed is partly my fault. I have had about 60 sent over.
I also firmly believe that the last two posters may wish to reconsider their "opininions" on the basis of some facts.
They are scarce but not rare.
If I had the money I could easily buy half a dozen or so next week.
That is not a rare coin in my opinion.
True; I've always referred to them as scarce, not as rare.
There are very few Australian coins that can truthfully be referred to as rare.
(i could provide you with half a dozen if needed; but that was because I spent a lot of my leisure time hunting for them in the location where most of them had been released.)
I did have a license:
(http://www.thesandpit.net/templates/listing4_o.JPG)
That would be collectable by itself Feathers!
Cool!
Quote from: 'trout' pid='45794' dateline='1396611972'QuoteI also firmly believe that the last two posters may wish to reconsider their "opininions" on the basis of some facts.
I would "reconsider" my opinion if there were some SOLID facts regarding the mintage figures of this coin.
At the moment there are NO definitive figures other than conjecture and guesswork by various identities and nothing solid from the Mint as of yet.
At the moment I DO believe that the valuations of these coins ARE being upheld by Hype and not based on solid evidence.
The sheer number of these coins discovered and still being discovered seems to dispel the belief that they are SUPER rare.
I am In NO way posing these questions to "Bag" the mulies , I just want to gather some definitive data on these coins.
So lets put our thinking caps on instead of getting all defensive and hunt down some conclusive facts on this highly interesting decimal coin.
At the moment there seems to be a shroud of secrecy and mystique around this coin.
I would rather deal with facts than urban legends :ok:
I explained how many escaped in the post above and you are ignoring what I posted.
They are not super rare; I have never said they are super rare.
A super rare coin is one with 5 to 10 known. The only "shroud of mystery" was due to the bull**** mintage in the McDonalds catalogue.
This estimate of 6000 was based on STATISTICS .
True; I've always referred to them as scarce, not as rare.
There are very few Australian coins that can truthfully be referred to as rare.
[/quote]
AGREED
Outside of NCLT coins there are only 6 Australian coins with under 1000 surviving examples.
The rare coins
The 1813 dump and holey dollars are both rare (over 100 each)
The 1931 dropped 1 Indian (perhaps 100)
The very rare coins
1920 dot above English (perhaps 20)
1916 mule half (perhaps 10)
The extremely rare coin
1930 English (3 known).
1930 Indians, 1923 halves, $1 mules are all only scarce with at least 1,000 of each in collections.
If 6000 mules were minted then how many remain and are in collections? 3,000? maybe 4,000? Still means at least a few hundred to a thousand of the balance have not been destroyed over the years and await discovery (but well circulated).
I read a few years back that somebody had 3 jars full of mules. Any truth to that rumour because if they did succeed in pulling so many out then that implies they did it early in the piece and many would be AU grade (or better).
QuoteI explained how many escaped in the post above and you are ignoring what I posted.
They are not super rare; I have never said they are super rare.
A super rare coin is one with 5 to 10 known. The only "shroud of mystery" was due to the bullshit mintage in the McDonalds catalogue.
This estimate of 6000 was based on STATISTICS
I am not ignoring your post at all feathers.
My post was up there "Prior" to yours :ok:
Statistics are at best educated guesses NOT facts ( just look what any government can do with "Statistics") and you will see why I question data of this nature.
We will ALL have to take self interest and emotion out of the discussion and try and ascertain the facts so that this can be "put to bed" :ok:
This can be a very informative and interesting discussion if we all work together and glean every nook and cranny to gather the facts regarding this coin.
come on you Mob this IS an interesting numismatic mystery that should and eventually can be solved .
For me as a collector the history and facts about a coin is almost as important as the coin itself, sometimes more so.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='45800' dateline='1396613939'QuoteI explained how many escaped in the post above and you are ignoring what I posted.
They are not super rare; I have never said they are super rare.
A super rare coin is one with 5 to 10 known. The only "shroud of mystery" was due to the bullshit mintage in the McDonalds catalogue.
This estimate of 6000 was based on STATISTICS
I am not ignoring your post at all feathers.
My post was up there "Prior" to yours :ok:
Statistics are at best educated guesses NOT facts ( just look what any government can do with "Statistics") and you will see why I question data of this nature.
We will ALL have to take self interest and emotion out of the discussion and try and ascertain the facts so that this can be "put to bed" :ok:
This can be a very informative and interesting discussion if we all work together and glean every nook and cranny to gather the facts regarding this coin.
come on you Mob this IS an interesting numismatic mystery that should and eventually can be solved .
For me as a collector the history and facts about a coin is almost as important as the coin itself, sometimes more so.
QuoteI explained how many escaped in the post above and you are ignoring what I posted.
They are not super rare; I have never said they are super rare.
A super rare coin is one with 5 to 10 known. The only "shroud of mystery" was due to the bullshit mintage in the McDonalds catalogue.
This estimate of 6000 was based on STATISTICS
I am not ignoring your post at all feathers.
My post was up there "Prior" to yours :ok:
Statistics are at best educated guesses NOT facts ( just look what any government can do with "Statistics") and you will see why I question data of this nature.
We will ALL have to take self interest and emotion out of the discussion and try and ascertain the facts so that this can be "put to bed" :ok:
This can be a very informative and interesting discussion if we all work together and glean every nook and cranny to gather the facts regarding this coin.
come on you Mob this IS an interesting numismatic mystery that should and eventually can be solved .
For me as a collector the history and facts about a coin is almost as important as the coin itself, sometimes more so.
So Trout you are saying that I cannot take proper statistics.
Guess what?
I can.
I did a Ph.D. in experimental physics.
I certainly know how to take statistics and interpret them.
I AM DEEPLY OFFENDED BY YOUR ATTITUDE AND AM NOT GOING TO PUT UP WITH IT ANY MORE.
I HAVE JUST ABOUT HAD ENOUGH OF THE PIGHEADEDNESS AND NASTINESS I HAVE SEN IN THIS FORUM TODAY
I
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='45799' dateline='1396613535'True; I've always referred to them as scarce, not as rare.
There are very few Australian coins that can truthfully be referred to as rare.
AGREED
Outside of NCLT coins there are only 6 Australian coins with under 1000 surviving examples.
The rare coins
The 1813 dump and holey dollars are both rare (over 100 each)
The 1931 dropped 1 Indian (perhaps 100)
The very rare coins
1920 dot above English (perhaps 20)
1916 mule half (perhaps 10)
The extremely rare coin
1930 English (3 known).
1930 Indians, 1923 halves, $1 mules are all only scarce with at least 1,000 of each in collections.
If 6000 mules were minted then how many remain and are in collections? 3,000? maybe 4,000? Still means at least a few hundred to a thousand of the balance have not been destroyed over the years and await discovery (but well circulated).
I read a few years back that somebody had 3 jars full of mules. Any truth to that rumour because if they did succeed in pulling so many out then that implies they did it early in the piece and many would be AU grade (or better).
[/quote]
Agree about 1930 pennies (Indian) and 23 halfpennies.
Scarce but not rare.
I would think that by taking 2.3 million $1 coins from circulation
- esp. if you have a reliable level of certainty of all being original coins - for example, taking into account or excluding that a certain % of that 2.3 million may be repeated counts (i.e. checking the pokie machine coins - they could in fact be the same coins repacked and then checked over and over)
so if you are sure that your 'sample' of 2.3 million is a fairly clean sample then taking the count of 'mules' removed could very well be reliable number to extrapolate out a fairly well educated probability of estimated numbers of existence of that particular error coin
I think it is quite a reliable way to estimate that potential numbers in real terms - samples are used regularly for statistical estimates once other variables are taken into account
If the mint doesn't have a record of the numbers then we can only go by the actual find from the coins in circulation
to this day the Melbourne mint claims to have never minted the 1930 penny ex the proofs
now it is accepted that the 1930 penny is real and the numbers known are quite small
if we relied on the mint figures then we would have to conclude that the 1930 circulation penny does not exist
I think that the mint eventually conceded that yes, it does exist but no mintage records exist (golly!!)
scarcity/rarity for error coins is often only calculated by those who collect them as they are the only ones interested in them
the sales hype is another matter but the interest in them is what sets the trends in the value
markets go up and down on all commodities
defining scarce and rare in the coin world is also a matter of conjecture
***** feathers , settle down Mate.
I am in NO way having a shot at you at all.
I consider you as a Mate and I am disappointed that you think I am "bagging " you, Because that is definitely not my intention.
All I wanted from this thread is some factual data regarding this coin, Simple as that.
Like I alluded to in my last post, emotions and ego's HAVE to be kept out of the discussion so that the facts will eventually trickle in without anyone getting scared off from offering any information.
I am sorry if I come across as a tenacious and unyielding bastard But that is just the way I am when I want to discover the facts and history behind the production of any given coin.
how i see this problem is that you seem to be wanting facts on something that the mint doesn't say exists in their records
so others have offered grassroots find numbers
which is exactly what all of the variety books rely on
actual counts
Emu has given a well documented educated guesstimate of his large sample
I think it is a fairly reliable sample % = possible numbers
ps - if I have my figures right then apx one quarter of the mintage were checked for Emu's sample - that is one hell of a sample!
I honestly can't see what else is the answer to the question that you pose
a mintage report will not change the interest in this coin
it is a numismatic curiosity and the variety collectors will seek them out
the values will be determined on the day by the buyer/s
Quotehow i see this problem is that you seem to be wanting facts on something that the mint doesn't say exists in their records
The very same thing was said about the incused millennium coin a while back.
After so many people enquired and asked about it the truth was eventually forthcoming from the mint.
I fail to see why the same outcome is impossible for the 2000 mule.
After all this is a pertinent question about what has become an iconic decimal coin and the Mint surely knows the answers.
They just have to be asked enough times to get a response.
ok
but did they give mintage numbers or simply verify that there was say, a master die fault?
so they say, yes this variation exists but do they give the mintage figures?
and even with mintage numbers - would that reduce value? hum I don't think so, as all circulation coins end up looking very scruffy, so a high grade/unc - will always have a varieties collector value - but only for the varieties guys, your average coin collector won't care for them (me thinks)
** just checked maccas - yes, 200,000 incused millennium were likely to have been minted
large number and they are still quite popular aren't they?
so high numbers doesn't reduce interest
144 views and 18 reply's in 3 hrs in my opinion makes this a valid question that collectors want an answer to :)
well keep chipping away at it
die variation is one thing I suppose (I.e. the incused relief pattern)
but admitting to a buggar up of a die combination is a bigger red face
and then tracing the records could be tricky as technically, the 10c die should not have been used in the first place, so technically, i'd reckon that it isn't on record - the record would be for a 20c obv die and someone has picked up the wrong die in the first place? maybe - just my logic
anyways, i still reckon that the mintage numbers won't really make the interest any different - it will just give maccas another line to print
each year
Quotejust checked maccas - yes, 200,000 were likely to have been minted
large number and they are still quite popular aren't they?
so high numbers doesn't reduce interest
If those figures were factual and not simply conjecture it would have a dramatic effect on the values of these coins.
A beat up mule is worth about $300-$400 at the moment based on the 400-6000 rule.
If it become known by the Mint that 200.000 of these coins are out there these would have a value of $20-$30 0vernight
those numbers were for the incused millennium (I just added that to my earlier post too)
ok - I don't collect them (the $1 mule and even the 50c - only have the one that you sent me) so I suppose I don't know much about those sale values
an astute seller wouldn't pursue the mintage figures and thereby, risk instantly culling the mystic & potentially the resale values
so I will now exit the discourse, as I didn't realise it was basically about the mintage numbers being the determinant for buy/sell values rather than the importance of the numismatic history for the (first?) aussie decimal MOR 'mule'
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='45811' dateline='1396619404'those numbers were for the incused millennium (I just added that to my earlier post too)
ok - I don't collect them (the $1 mule and even the 50c - only have the one that you sent me) so I suppose I don't know much about those sale values
an astute seller wouldn't pursue the mintage figures and thereby, risk instantly culling the mystic & potentially the resale values
so I will now exit the discourse, as I didn't realise it was basically about the mintage numbers being the determinant for buy/sell values rather than the importance of the numismatic history for the (first?) aussie decimal MOR 'mule'
All is good RG.
Its all about getting the truth out of the Mint mate :good:
Good statistics could very well give a good estimate of how many mules were made.
Emu.
How many did you find in the 2.3 million coins you checked?
How many searched coins do you think you might have handled more than once?
Can you give some idea of the assumptions and calculations you used to come to that figure?
I think you may well have good handle on how to estimate these things and I am very interested in how you came to your conclusions.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='45812' dateline='1396619667'Its all about getting the truth out of the Mint mate :good:
Except there's no truth to be got. They really don't know, as they thought they got them all 14 years ago.
We hashed all this out last decade, remember? And we also came up with 6,000, not from statistics, but from production processes. Of course, sadly all that discussion disappeared when the forum vanished, but we should recall enough of it to make sense, no?
The estimate was based on the totes the presses feed into, and the QC sampling intervals. If the die was swapped immediately after an empty tote was put in place, the error would have been caught before any got away and the entire lot destroyed. Therefore the bin was already partially filled with normal coins. When the die change took place, the rest of the tote was filled and swapped out before a sample was taken and the error discovered. There definitely wasn't more than one, going by their processes. This also fit with what I later saw and was told by press operators.
And we know the entire batch was bagged and sent to Perth, where the majority stayed until found years later, mainly at the casino.
From the current Mint website:
QuoteThe finished coins collect in a small catch box that is regularly checked for quality by the press operator. A representative sample of the coin batch is also checked by Quality Control. If the sample fails, the press is shut down for inspection of the die and the entire batch of coins is quarantined. If the quality of the coin is below the accepted standard, the batch is then destroyed.
As for rarity, sure there's more than a handful of them... but very very few in high grade. And that counts as rare in my book. Yes, they're readily available, but that's because a) they're stuffed and b) most people see them as errors and they don't hang onto them, so there's a high turnover.
Thank you Fulvio, That is precisely the sort of information I was looking for.
As I have only been on coin forums for a few years I missed the previous discussions regarding this coin. :good:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='45821' dateline='1396642223'Thank you Fulvio, That is precisely the sort of information I was looking for.
As I have only been on coin forums for a few years I missed the previous discussions regarding this coin. :good:
I am also relatively new, so while I appreciate this has been discussed elsewhere in the past, I have missed it all.
Thanks Fulvio.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='45821' dateline='1396642223'Thank you Fulvio, That is precisely the sort of information I was looking for.
As I have only been on coin forums for a few years I missed the previous discussions regarding this coin. :good:
Yes, you have only been on the forums for a few years and you may think you are on some sort of crusade to get information but you have to realise all of this has been thrashed out in the past and then thrashed over again, and again. You asked a question, got an answer and then you dismissed statistics put before you by emu666, who is most likely the single strongest source of information on the mule on EARTH. Sometimes you just need to be quiet and listen to the answer rather than posting again and showing your ignorance of facts that people who have been doing this for a lot longer than you already know.
This is a good thread and if the people in the "know" are given the opportunity to post up what they know then it's a great archive of information that has been lost on previous forums. I am sure everyone here would appreciate it if they be given the opportunity to speak up on what is an interesting topic.
If Feathers had posted an answer similar to what Fulvio did and outlined what happened at the Mint the day this Mule was minted I would have accepted his estimate.
I have no idea that he is the top expert on these and the answer I got was "I estimated" without explaining what happened at the Mint.
That would expect me to take the figures on in "Blind faith" just like people did with the Maccas figures .
I see nothing wrong with pursuing a question until a definitive answer is found .
The "Sit down , shut up and listen Stupid" reference was a bit uncalled for Mate, But that doesn't phase me at all, Sticks and stones and all that.
The important thing is that those of us that were NOT "In the Know" now are :ok:
why did you behave as though you knew everything?
You were making such big statements I assumed you knew the origins of the coins.
I am also interested in what your true motive was in starting this thread.
My attention has been drawn to similar statements you have made on another forum.
Please answer this; was your primary motivation to "talk down" one decimal rarity (that you did not have one of) at the same time as "talking up" another that you had available for sale?
I hope i am wrong, but that is what it looks like.
Quote from: 'emu666' pid='45836' dateline='1396655761'why did you behave as though you knew everything?
You were making such big statements I assumed you knew the origins of the coins.
I am also interested in what your true motive was in starting this thread.
My attention has been drawn to similar statements you have made on another forum.
Please answer this; was your primary motivation to "talk down" one decimal rarity (that you did not have one of) at the same time as "talking up" another that you had available for sale?
I hope i am wrong, but that is what it looks like.
If I knew everything about this coin I wouldn't have asked the question.
The observations I made on CCF were simply that, As these 2 coins have pretty much been kept in the dark and are pretty similar being the 2 main stuff ups by the Mint with decimal coins.
Nothing to do with the coin I have for sale, That will sell on it's own merits and doesn't need any "Help" thank you.
I am not an error collector so the Mule is not a requirement for my Dollar set, It is however an interesting coin and now that I have the history about it I may just get one.
Quote from: 'trout' pid='45839' dateline='1396657055'....I am not an error collector so the Mule is not a requirement for my Dollar set....
It's not an error (but was made in error) but a variety, you may need to rethink this trout! Subject for another thread......
OK I think this has gone far enough off topic. Perhaps we could start thread on the Millennium too? And get this one back on to the topic of the mule.
QuoteIf I knew everything about this coin I wouldn't have asked the question.
The observations I made on CCF were simply that, As these 2 coins have pretty much been kept in the dark and are pretty similar being the 2 main stuff ups by the Mint with decimal coins.
Nothing to do with the coin I have for sale, That will sell on it's own merits and doesn't need any "Help" thank you.
I am not an error collector so the Mule is not a requirement for my Dollar set, It is however an interesting coin and now that I have the history about it I may just get one.
That's good. I am relieved that your motivation was innocent.
I've seen dealers try to talk down coins or banknotes they don't have in stock and talk up ones they do have. It rarely works; generally they end up making fools of themselves. I'd better not name names or Mark will put me in the sinbin.
QuoteNothing to do with the coin I have for sale, That will sell on it's own merits and doesn't need any "Help" thank you.
No it doesn't. I did mention it to someone yesterday. He looked online and had trouble seeing the bagmarks on the coin. You may consider taking a scan of it and adding it to the listing.
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='45805' dateline='1396616775'how i see this problem is that you seem to be wanting facts on something that the mint doesn't say exists in their records
so others have offered grassroots find numbers
which is exactly what all of the variety books rely on
actual counts
Emu has given a well documented educated guesstimate of his large sample
I think it is a fairly reliable sample % = possible numbers
ps - if I have my figures right then apx one quarter of the mintage were checked for Emu's sample - that is one hell of a sample!
I honestly can't see what else is the answer to the question that you pose
a mintage report will not change the interest in this coin
it is a numismatic curiosity and the variety collectors will seek them out
the values will be determined on the day by the buyer/s
I think that Peter checked a few million dollar coins, not a few million dollar coins dated for that particular year. Either way it is a huge sample size and he deserves every mule he found.
A mintage report would change interest in the coin. If you found out that the mintage was 20,000 (or 200,000) then there is a bank vault (or perhaps a casino employee?) somewhere with sacks upon sacks of UNC mules waiting to hit the market and the interest in the variety (noodling) or as an investment will decline. Why pay a few grand for MS62 examples when there might be thousands at MS64-67?
Quote from: 'purplepennyhunter' pid='45840' dateline='1396657262'Quote from: 'trout' pid='45839' dateline='1396657055'....I am not an error collector so the Mule is not a requirement for my Dollar set....
It's not an error (but was made in error) but a variety, you may need to rethink this trout! Subject for another thread......
Cheers PP.
I didn't look at it in that light, looks like it IS after all a requirement for the collection :good:
QuoteI think that Peter checked a few million dollar coins, not a few million dollar coins dated for that particular year. Either way it is a huge sample size and he deserves every mule he found.
A mintage report would change interest in the coin. If you found out that the mintage was 20,000 (or 200,000) then there is a bank vault (or perhaps a casino employee?) somewhere with sacks upon sacks of UNC mules waiting to hit the market and the interest in the variety (noodling) or as an investment will decline. Why pay a few grand for MS62 examples when there might be thousands at MS64-67?
Given the exposure that this coin has had I Highly doubt that there is a "Hidden Hoard" in pristine condition of these anywhere.
They would have hit the market years ago :ok:
Quote from: 'emu666' pid='45845' dateline='1396657774'QuoteIf I knew everything about this coin I wouldn't have asked the question.
The observations I made on CCF were simply that, As these 2 coins have pretty much been kept in the dark and are pretty similar being the 2 main stuff ups by the Mint with decimal coins.
Nothing to do with the coin I have for sale, That will sell on it's own merits and doesn't need any "Help" thank you.
I am not an error collector so the Mule is not a requirement for my Dollar set, It is however an interesting coin and now that I have the history about it I may just get one.
That's good. I am relieved that your motivation was innocent.
I've seen dealers try to talk down coins or banknotes they don't have in stock and talk up ones they do have. It rarely works; generally they end up making fools of themselves. I'd better not name names or Mark will put me in the sinbin.
QuoteNothing to do with the coin I have for sale, That will sell on it's own merits and doesn't need any "Help" thank you.
No it doesn't. I did mention it to someone yesterday. He looked online and had trouble seeing the bagmarks on the coin. You may consider taking a scan of it and adding it to the listing.
Answering this in the missbehavers
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='45846' dateline='1396658138'Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='45805' dateline='1396616775'how i see this problem is that you seem to be wanting facts on something that the mint doesn't say exists in their records
so others have offered grassroots find numbers
which is exactly what all of the variety books rely on
actual counts
Emu has given a well documented educated guesstimate of his large sample
I think it is a fairly reliable sample % = possible numbers
ps - if I have my figures right then apx one quarter of the mintage were checked for Emu's sample - that is one hell of a sample!
I honestly can't see what else is the answer to the question that you pose
a mintage report will not change the interest in this coin
it is a numismatic curiosity and the variety collectors will seek them out
the values will be determined on the day by the buyer/s
I think that Peter checked a few million dollar coins, not a few million dollar coins dated for that particular year. Either way it is a huge sample size and he deserves every mule he found.
A mintage report would change interest in the coin. If you found out that the mintage was 20,000 (or 200,000) then there is a bank vault (or perhaps a casino employee?) somewhere with sacks upon sacks of UNC mules waiting to hit the market and the interest in the variety (noodling) or as an investment will decline. Why pay a few grand for MS62 examples when there might be thousands at MS64-67?
You cannot get a mintage report. It was a surprise when the mint controller (Vivienne Thom) actually admitted that the mistake had occurred.
What we know of the coin's origin came from a former mint employee who probably told us more than he or she should have (and insisted his or her name never be mentioned). From what I recall, we were told that just one incorrect die was used (which is consistent with the identical reeding position for all mules) and that when the mistake was identified they melted all the ones they could find. A bag of mules would extremely unlikely as the mules were mixed in with normal coins (just one of the presses had the 10c obverse). The person who originally found the choice mule I used to own obtained it from a roll in Perth in 2000. There were four mules in the roll; two of which he gave to us children (who subsequently spent them); one of which i eventually obtained and one he kept.
Also the technical term for a casino worker who removes money from the casino is a "job seeker".
Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='45820' dateline='1396630085'Quote from: 'trout' pid='45812' dateline='1396619667'Its all about getting the truth out of the Mint mate :good:
Except there's no truth to be got. They really don't know, as they thought they got them all 14 years ago.
We hashed all this out last decade, remember? And we also came up with 6,000, not from statistics, but from production processes. Of course, sadly all that discussion disappeared when the forum vanished, but we should recall enough of it to make sense, no?
The estimate was based on the totes the presses feed into, and the QC sampling intervals. If the die was swapped immediately after an empty tote was put in place, the error would have been caught before any got away and the entire lot destroyed. Therefore the bin was already partially filled with normal coins. When the die change took place, the rest of the tote was filled and swapped out before a sample was taken and the error discovered. There definitely wasn't more than one, going by their processes. This also fit with what I later saw and was told by press operators.
And we know the entire batch was bagged and sent to Perth, where the majority stayed until found years later, mainly at the casino.
From the current Mint website:
QuoteThe finished coins collect in a small catch box that is regularly checked for quality by the press operator. A representative sample of the coin batch is also checked by Quality Control. If the sample fails, the press is shut down for inspection of the die and the entire batch of coins is quarantined. If the quality of the coin is below the accepted standard, the batch is then destroyed.
As for rarity, sure there's more than a handful of them... but very very few in high grade. And that counts as rare in my book. Yes, they're readily available, but that's because a) they're stuffed and b) most people see them as errors and they don't hang onto them, so there's a high turnover.
You raise a few interesting points that gives support to the 6,000 estimate.
BUT
You quote the mint for their CURRENT quality control methods, perhaps the method has been tightened up in the past 14 years? Perhaps in response to the stuff up back then? Perhaps because QC back then didn't even consider looking for a mule?
When people are on the look-out for specific faults they can find them easily. But nobody looked out for English/Indians or 33/32s or other varieties that seem obvious and it was decades before they were noticed.
Same with the mules, the QC guys and press operators were probably looking for chipped dies, poorly aligned dies and other common mint problems, with the mule they saw a problem free reverse die and a problem free obverse die and ticked off the QC passed paperwork.
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='45850' dateline='1396659279'You raise a few interesting points that gives support to the 6,000 estimate.
BUT
You quote the mint for their CURRENT quality control methods, perhaps the method has been tightened up in the past 14 years? Perhaps in response to the stuff up back then? Perhaps because QC back then didn't even consider looking for a mule?
When people are on the look-out for specific faults they can find them easily. But nobody looked out for English/Indians or 33/32s or other varieties that seem obvious and it was decades before they were noticed.
Same with the mules, the QC guys and press operators were probably looking for chipped dies, poorly aligned dies and other common mint problems, with the mule they saw a problem free reverse die and a problem free obverse die and ticked off the QC passed paperwork.
The upset 2010 50c is being found in enough numbers to suggest it was an entire die run (200,000 coins or so) which puts paid to the idea that QC standards have improved.
Given the exposure that this coin has had I Highly doubt that there is a "Hidden Hoard" in pristine condition of these anywhere.
They would have hit the market years ago :ok:
[/quote]
Um, maybe.
There are a number of examples of coins that were considered rare having hidden hoards flood the market.
Look at the 1915 half sovereign, it was considered scarce/rare until a large cache turned up from Albania in the 1980s. I paid just above spot for one from Bob Roberts (who was the distributor).
Or that horde of gold coins that PCGS slabbed, there are so many and in such high grade that 14 of them are top of the pops and the hundreds of high grades has made many conditional rarity coins drop in value.
Some banks (and companies) keep bags of coins in reserve for years/decades, being the year of Y2K and the expected influx of visitors for the 2000 olympics it stands to reason that extra cash was stockpiled. Look at all the extra notes printed for Y2K that distorted banknote distribution for a decade.
Even a small horde would distort the market, look how many collectors have mint rolls or mint sealed bags of coins. Can you even tell if a roll contains mules when you cannot see the rim?
Quote from: 'Steveqld' pid='45853' dateline='1396659951'Quote from: 'purplepennyhunter' pid='45840' dateline='1396657262'Quote from: 'trout' pid='45839' dateline='1396657055'....I am not an error collector so the Mule is not a requirement for my Dollar set....
It's not an error (but was made in error) but a variety, you may need to rethink this trout! Subject for another thread......
I don't know that I would agree with that as, to me, it is an error coin. PCGS defines an error coin as:
error
A numismatic item that unintentionally varies from the norm. Ordinarily, overdates are not errors since they were done intentionally while other die-cutting "mistakes" are considered errors. Double dies, planchet clips, off-metal strikings, etc. also are errors.
An error may occur because of either a mechanical or human failing. In this instance it was a human failing because they inserted the wrong die. By the PCGS definition it is an "unintentional variety" hence an error. If it was intentional then I would agree with Markn.
I know I'm putting a great deal of weight on PCGS definitions (but we have to start somewhere) and they describe the mule (and I think we all agree it is a mule) as:
Mule Error
This is a rare Mint error where the obverse die is of one coin and the reverse die is of another coin. The most famous of the Mule errors is a Sacagawea dollar/Washington quarter Mule, where a Washington quarter obverse is paired with a Sacagawea reverse. (my emphasis)
Thanks Steve for PCGSs definition of this mule as an error rather than a variety.
What do they classify the mules that may have been intentionally made?
I'm thinking of the Bahamas/NZ mule that was reportedly made as a protest against staff cuts at the Royal Mint, or those mules made for the collector market by corrupt staff (has happened at Canberra on multiple occasions).
Also the technical term for a casino worker who removes money from the casino is a "job seeker".
[/quote]
Only if they tickle the till. Does management really care as long as the sums balance?
Many bank tellers will swap out the desirable stuff for their own money (silver 50 cents, gold 200 dollars,solid number notes etc) as a perk of the job, posters here and on the other forum regularly give examples of friendly tellers putting aside goodies for them. A very famous collector was Owen Fleming who was a bank teller who noodled his till for many years.
Wouldn't be hard for the casino cashiers to put aside the mint fresh bags of coins once they found out that collectors were hitting the casino to noodle the dollar coins. Cash those bags out when your wife picked you up at the end of the shift and noodle out the mules. Just a single cashier doing that would distort the statistics as Peter would have been going through many pre noodled coins.
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='45850' dateline='1396659279'You quote the mint for their CURRENT quality control methods, perhaps the method has been tightened up in the past 14 years?
Correct. Which is why I pointed out that it was current. The procedures have most definitely been tightened up as a result of a couple of well-publicised stuffups, and its less likely this will recur.
Sadly, we don't have details of how things were, other than memories, and we pretty much have to accept what people recall, match them all up, and see if the results are consistent.
All indications are that there are no hidden stashes of mules. They were not found and publicised on release day. They were just another standard MoR, and totally unremarkable. Even active UNC collectors, which I count myself as, who might have stashed sacks, clearly didn't. For one thing, the total quantity was tiny, for another it was mixed as the result of being a partial tote at the press. Then the isolated geographic release point, and lack of volume collectors in that location, all conspired against a hoard existing.
No, if someone like me had snagged them, he would have got pretty much all of them, and there wouldn't be any circulated examples. Exactly as there are no circulated coronation $2's. I've only ever seen three, and I didn't find those myself. Yet I have thousands in UNC.
See my point?
Oh, and PP is correct. It is a variety. Also been argued to death, but I'm sure we could research it and argue that for a many pages anyway...
Oh, and speaking of many pages, can you all
PLEASE learn how to trim attributions? It is extremely annoying to continually wade through reams of guff you've already read
(and often written), for the one-word comment at the end. Seriously, this is a forum, not a business email exchange. Learn the difference and stop the bloat. All you need is the minimum attribution for context.
Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='45864' dateline='1396662760'All you need is the minimum attribution for context.
OK
Please move all comments about whether the mule is an error or variety to here: http://www.australian-coins.net/showthread.php?tid=2405
QuoteOnly if they tickle the till. Does management really care as long as the sums balance?
Many bank tellers will swap out the desirable stuff for their own money (silver 50 cents, gold 200 dollars,solid number notes etc) as a perk of the job, posters here and on the other forum regularly give examples of friendly tellers putting aside goodies for them. A very famous collector was Owen Fleming who was a bank teller who noodled his till for many years.
Wouldn't be hard for the casino cashiers to put aside the mint fresh bags of coins once they found out that collectors were hitting the casino to noodle the dollar coins. Cash those bags out when your wife picked you up at the end of the shift and noodle out the mules. Just a single cashier doing that would distort the statistics as Peter would have been going through many pre noodled coins.
QuoteWouldn't be hard for the casino cashiers to put aside the mint fresh bags
As I said before, it would be impossible for anyone who wanted to keep his job. Some of the machine attendants at Burswood did know what I was doing and I did talk to them as I would have loved to have been able to get newly released dollar coins. They could not afford to be seen looking through coins on company time. They are also not permitted to play the poker machines.
In any case; the casino never get mint bags. They get bags of coins straight from the security companies. Burswood used to be handled by CHUBB.
As far as bank tellers are concerned:
Mules released into circulation 2000 AD
Variety first noted in CAB 2003
People start actively looking for them in Perth late 2004.
If any rolls or mint bags containing mules existed they would have surfaced by now.
Check out the post by erkle- 5th post from the bottom.This may or may not be true
http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=127156&whichpage=2
Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='45887' dateline='1396668275'Check out the post by erkle- 5th post from the bottom.This may or may not be true
http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=127156&whichpage=2
I suspect not.
I would trust very little from that forum.
Quote from: 'emu666' pid='45888' dateline='1396668437'Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='45887' dateline='1396668275'Check out the post by erkle- 5th post from the bottom.This may or may not be true
http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=127156&whichpage=2
I suspect not.
I would trust very little from that forum.
I also suspect it's not true but more likely a few tins of $1 coins with a few mules on top at best
Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='45890' dateline='1396668554'Quote from: 'emu666' pid='45888' dateline='1396668437'Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='45887' dateline='1396668275'Check out the post by erkle- 5th post from the bottom.This may or may not be true
http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=127156&whichpage=2
I suspect not.
I would trust very little from that forum.
I also suspect it's not true but more likely a few tins of $1 coins with a few mules on top at best
OK say there were 200 coins per tin; then we are talking 600 mules. If we got by my hit rate; then total number of coins needed to have gone through would be roughly 8 million which is an unbelievable number of dollar coins to go through a shop. On the other hand, I recall that for a while Ken Skinner was counting the year 2000 $1 coins while we were mule hunting. From memory roughly 1 in 250 were mules. To fill 3 tins with 2000 dated dollar coins would then have required the store to have gone through 8 million / 250; i.e 32000 coins - roughly 100 per day for a year.
Steve, your theory looks good.
[/quote]
OK say there were 200 coins per tin; then we are talking 600 mules. If we got by my hit rate; then total number of coins needed to have gone through would be roughly 8 million which is an unbelievable number of dollar coins to go through a shop. On the other hand, I recall that for a while Ken Skinner was counting the year 2000 $1 coins while we were mule hunting. From memory roughly 1 in 250 were mules. To fill 3 tins with 2000 dated dollar coins would then have required the store to have gone through 8 million / 250; i.e 32000 coins - roughly 100 per day for a year.
Steve, your theory looks good.
[/quote]
Yes putting it that way it does seem ridiculous to think that the 3 tin story could be true.With that being said it is unlikely that we will see a hoard being dumped onto the market as it would be virtually impossible for anyone to noodle that many mules from one spot
fascinating read BTW, I got 1 so if anyone doing a tally on them don't forget mine...........
hi guys, out of interest, does anyone know how many $1 coins a full tote carries ? And does anyone know the approx size of one of those tote ?
Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='45887' dateline='1396668275'Check out the post by erkle- 5th post from the bottom.This may or may not be true
http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=127156&whichpage=2
That was the 3 jars that I recalled.
So when does this shopkeeper retire and cash in his investment?
Here's an MS67
ebay link (http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/AUST-2000-1-mob-of-roos-UNC-ROLL-security-20-coins-only-roll-seen-RARE-/291115581516?pt=AU_Coins2&hash=item43c7d7404c&_uhb=1)
......................................maybe......................(but who knows)
Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='45893' dateline='1396669884'
OK say there were 200 coins per tin; then we are talking 600 mules. If we got by my hit rate; then total number of coins needed to have gone through would be roughly 8 million which is an unbelievable number of dollar coins to go through a shop. On the other hand, I recall that for a while Ken Skinner was counting the year 2000 $1 coins while we were mule hunting. From memory roughly 1 in 250 were mules. To fill 3 tins with 2000 dated dollar coins would then have required the store to have gone through 8 million / 250; i.e 32000 coins - roughly 100 per day for a year.
Steve, your theory looks good.
[/quote]
Yes putting it that way it does seem ridiculous to think that the 3 tin story could be true.With that being said it is unlikely that we will see a hoard being dumped onto the market as it would be virtually impossible for anyone to noodle that many mules from one spot
[/quote]
But if Ken Skinner and Peter were hunting in 2004 and CAB reported the variety in 2003 then whoever started hunting prior to the CAB article was closest to the release point and may have been hitting a vein rich in year 2000 coins and with a higher percentage of mules. I'm assuming that at least one person was hunting for mules and word got out to CAB. If they started hunting early then the dispersal would have been only moderate from the immediate area. Someone has just posted that a roll that was searched back then had 4 mules so that implies that Ken Skinners 1 in 250 was well away from the mother lode.
:laugh2: PPH ..... I don't know about Armaguard ...... more Armandaleg ...... eeek
I think that Peter checked a few million dollar coins, not a few million dollar coins dated for that particular year. Either way it is a huge sample size and he deserves every mule he found.
[/quote]
oh der .... makes clear sense now and I didn't think of that in the wee hours of the morn!! ha ha
yeah - so it's a randomised sample of 2.3 million $1 coins on a given year, in a given state, from any year?
I guess that I assumed that the 2.3 million that were checked were 1. year 2000 2. MOR's rather than them being from any $1 coins from various years as your chances of selecting a mule from any year other than a 2000 MOR is of course = zero
but if you were to try to ascertain the likelihood of finding a 2000 MOR mule from the general circulating coins in Oz - then yes, you have another probability ratio to work out
so all in all, we could end up with 2 estimates - one from the $1 MOR's year 2000 mintage only and then one from the circulation pool of all $1 in Oz ( I do believe that Trout is after the former and general collectors are after the latter)
ps guys my dealer reckons the $1 'mule' from 2000 showed up in fair numbers in mid Nth Qld so it wasn't just Perth that got all the bags of goodies! go Queensland!!!
Quote from: 'emu666' pid='45892' dateline='1396669077'To fill 3 tins with 2000 dated dollar coins would then have required the store to have gone through 8 million / 250; i.e 32000 coins - roughly 100 per day for a year.
Steve, your theory looks good.
Not a bad trick, given the total mintage was 7,592,000! Either the story is fabricated, or the tins were. Probably the latter. My dad had a tin in the darkroom of round 50¢ he started filling as soon as they switched to CuNi. He doesn't remember how many he ended up with, but I reckon it was about 5 litres in volume, and pretty bluddy heavy for a kid to pick up. :)
I reckon the bloke found a couple of 'em, and used them to punk him. :)
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='45907' dateline='1396676975'circulation pool of all $1 in Oz
While I don't keep stats, I do keep all 2000's I find. They're not that common, as you would expect from the low mintage. And I've only had one mule. 1:250 may have been a reasonable rate in Perth in 2004, but you can add a few zeroes for the whole of Oz now.
Quote from: 'purplepennyhunter' pid='45899' dateline='1396675021'Here's an MS67
ebay link (http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/AUST-2000-1-mob-of-roos-UNC-ROLL-security-20-coins-only-roll-seen-RARE-/291115581516?pt=AU_Coins2&hash=item43c7d7404c&_uhb=1)
......................................maybe......................(but who knows)
WTF? The guy wants $80 each for a coin with an 8m mintage? I don't care if they're MS-anything... they'd need to be at least specimens to be worth that. Maybe if the roll was intact, you might take a punt on it containing a mule, but this auction is BS.
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='45900' dateline='1396675143'Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='45893' dateline='1396669884'
OK say there were 200 coins per tin; then we are talking 600 mules. If we got by my hit rate; then total number of coins needed to have gone through would be roughly 8 million which is an unbelievable number of dollar coins to go through a shop. On the other hand, I recall that for a while Ken Skinner was counting the year 2000 $1 coins while we were mule hunting. From memory roughly 1 in 250 were mules. To fill 3 tins with 2000 dated dollar coins would then have required the store to have gone through 8 million / 250; i.e 32000 coins - roughly 100 per day for a year.
Steve, your theory looks good.
Yes putting it that way it does seem ridiculous to think that the 3 tin story could be true.With that being said it is unlikely that we will see a hoard being dumped onto the market as it would be virtually impossible for anyone to noodle that many mules from one spot
[/quote]
But if Ken Skinner and Peter were hunting in 2004 and CAB reported the variety in 2003 then whoever started hunting prior to the CAB article was closest to the release point and may have been hitting a vein rich in year 2000 coins and with a higher percentage of mules. I'm assuming that at least one person was hunting for mules and word got out to CAB. If they started hunting early then the dispersal would have been only moderate from the immediate area. Someone has just posted that a roll that was searched back then had 4 mules so that implies that Ken Skinners 1 in 250 was well away from the mother lode.
[/quote]
Dear Neale,
You forgot to mention the time machine required.
1 in 250 was in 2004 AD - this includes ALL batches on 2000 dated dollars sent from RAM to Perth
4 coins in a roll was in 2000 AD - this can only include THE BATCH that contains the 2000 $1 10c mules
Quote from: 'nealeffendi' pid='45897' dateline='1396674293'Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='45887' dateline='1396668275'Check out the post by erkle- 5th post from the bottom.This may or may not be true
http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=127156&whichpage=2
That was the 3 jars that I recalled.
So when does this shopkeeper retire and cash in his investment?
Been there , done that. Look on previous page.
I gather all this is just payback for April 1st otherwise you are now just being ridiculous.
I agree with Fulvio on that point....
2000 $1 coins seem to be not very common at all.
While I do not keep all of them. I do keep above average ones.
I first started hunting/noodling for a Mule on the 04 Aug 04 and up to date, I have searched/noodled through 2,444,996 $1 coins. Of that total, 30,600 were 2000 $1 coins for a Mule find total of 39. My last mule find was on the 02 Aug 2010. All these stats are on my computer as I type.
My first Mule was found in Sydney and Merrylands RSLM Club. I have found Mules at Melbourne, (various clubs and Crown Casino), Darwin, Adelaide and at sea in the Casino on the Pacific Sun.
Most of my Mule finds came from Crown Casino where, if I may be bold, many another forum persons and defunct forum members found theirs.
How many Mules are out there, who knows and even the RAM cannot answer that question.
I presently nave 22 Mules left in my collection of which one is on display at the RAM's Gallery in Canberra. I have sold and swapped a few for coins what I needed. I have had seven slabbed just recently and plan to slab the rest over the next year or so.
Besides my comment above, I have enjoyed all that has been posted on this topic. Well done.
Great collector stats there Goldie - 0.13% of your circulation total of year 2000 $1 MOR's, well done
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='45929' dateline='1396691980'Great collector stats there Goldie - 0.13% of your circulation total of year 2000 $1 MOR's, well done
Going by Goldies figures and multiplying it out with consideration to the year 2000 mintage of 7592000 that would put the $1 mule
population at just under 10000 which we could probably never confirm but it's probably as close as we could get to a large random
sample and also taking feathers calculations into consideration we could put the two together and say that the final figure for $1 mules
is about 8000 -- Believe it or not - Although it doesn't take into account the mules already taken out by other people in the searched samples
sounds about right to me
Quote from: 'Goldseeker' pid='45923' dateline='1396686746'I first started hunting/noodling for a Mule on the 04 Aug 04 and up to date, I have searched/noodled through 2,444,996 $1 coins. Of that total, 30,600 were 2000 $1 coins for a Mule find total of 39. My last mule find was on the 02 Aug 2010. All these stats are on my computer as I type.
My first Mule was found in Sydney and Merrylands RSLM Club. I have found Mules at Melbourne, (various clubs and Crown Casino), Darwin, Adelaide and at sea in the Casino on the Pacific Sun.
Most of my Mule finds came from Crown Casino where, if I may be bold, many another forum persons and defunct forum members found theirs.
How many Mules are out there, who knows and even the RAM cannot answer that question.
I presently nave 22 Mules left in my collection of which one is on display at the RAM's Gallery in Canberra. I have sold and swapped a few for coins what I needed. I have had seven slabbed just recently and plan to slab the rest over the next year or so.
Besides my comment above, I have enjoyed all that has been posted on this topic. Well done.
Excellent record keeping.
Just 2 questions
What made you start hunting on that particular date (4/8/04)(is that when you first found out about the mule?)
And how many have you searched through since 2/8/10 to come up empty (as that will indicate how few are still in the wild). Perhaps the plotting of your numbers would indicate the trends and between you and Peter there might be enough info to satisfy the most annoying pedantic bugger on this forum ( it's me or Trout).
Quotethere might be enough info to satisfy the most annoying pedantic bugger on this forum ( it's me or Trout).
I OBJECT, I resemble that accusation :angel:
I think the Blog covers it all pretty well.
http://www.australian-threepence.com/blog/2009/01/the-2000-1-10c-mule.html (http://www.australian-threepence.com/blog/2009/01/the-2000-1-10c-mule.html)
That takes into account much of Feathers' huge effort.
That in conjunction with Goldie's findings and Fulvio's comments back on page 3 of this thread should surely give us confidence in the estimate therein.
Mule Train ...... hyah!
Quote from: 'trout' pid='45936' dateline='1396694718'I OBJECT, I resemble that accusation :angel:
OBJECTION OVERRULED! Somebody hand me a ruler to hit him with!
Better yet, you two pedantic buggers can duel to the death at dawn.. mules at ten paces should do nicely... :diablo:
Oh, and as for stats, keep in mind Goldy's mules and impressive record-keeping were at least part of the motivation for the coin-finder page.. how's that coming anyway, Mark?
The date of 04 Aug 04 was when I realized I had some excess cash at home and wanted to do something with it. After reading an article/blog on a now defunct forum re Mules, upsets and rabbit ears, I said to myself, I can do that and that is where it started. I started by swapping $200 in notes for coin and just kept it going to current date. At one stage I was swapping $2,700 in notes for coin and on the merry go round. Now I swap $500 at a time, four times a week.
Since 02 Aug 2010, my last mule find, I have reduced my swaps down to 1000 coins and now further down to 500 at a time. I have searched 118, 501 $1 coins, for 4,507 year 2000 coins and no mules. From May 2011 through to Dec 2012, I didn't do any noodling as my suppliers declined to swap coin for coin. However, in December 2012 I went at it again using the CBC this time and they are the only ones I swap with now.
Goldie are you close to Ginifer?
Dennis Hughes the Sydney bus driver was the first person I knew who found one .... it was reported in the Daily Telegraph back in the day ... his eBay seller id was disco*
Edited
Quote from: 'SULLA' pid='46089' dateline='1396856745'Goldie are you close to Ginifer?
I am a stones throw from there.
Quote from: 'runway' pid='46108' dateline='1396880033'Dennis Hughes the Sydney bus driver was the first person I knew who found one .... it was reported in the Daily Telegraph back in the day ... his eBay seller id was disco*
Edited
Please note ... I didn't edit this
If you're interested in another story...
I have worked 3 hours on a Saturday and 3 hours on a Sunday in a small paper shop, in not an overly busy area in NSW.
I would guess an average of 200 $1 coins would go through the shop on each of those days.
I started looking in 2005.
I found 2 mules in 2 years (2005, 2007). But have since not found one for 7 years.
The mule is my very favourite coin and there is no way I would ever consider selling them.
This year I finally decided to see what all the fuss was about the Millenium 50c. I found 2 of those in subsequent weekends. And have not actively tried to find any more since.
~N.
Quote from: 'naomi_j86' pid='46330' dateline='1397268007'I found 2 mules in 2 years (2005, 2007). But have since not found one for 7 years.
One of the MNS members works for a parking company, and has lots of time to look over the coins people pay with. He found his fifth mule a couple of days ago, and brought it along to the meeting for show and tell. Well-circulated of course, but nicely centred.
Quote from: 'naomi_j86' pid='46330' dateline='1397268007'If you're interested in another story...
I have worked 3 hours on a Saturday and 3 hours on a Sunday in a small paper shop, in not an overly busy area in NSW.
I would guess an average of 200 $1 coins would go through the shop on each of those days.
I started looking in 2005.
I found 2 mules in 2 years (2005, 2007). But have since not found one for 7 years.
The mule is my very favourite coin and there is no way I would ever consider selling them.
This year I finally decided to see what all the fuss was about the Millenium 50c. I found 2 of those in subsequent weekends. And have not actively tried to find any more since.
~N.
Nice story good to hear :yahoo:
[attachment=2802]Yes I noodled one.... yes? thanks ErikP
Quote from: 'ErikP' pid='49869' dateline='1400760754'Yes I noodled one.... yes? thanks ErikP
Yes that's definitely a mule , well done Erik
Congratulations and well done. Is that your first one EricP?
Well done Eric, I'm still lookin :winkextra:
Quote from: 'Goldseeker' pid='49871' dateline='1400761617'Congratulations and well done. Is that your first one EricP?
yes for sure 15,000 coins rotated $1 between my son & I
Your one lucky person.
I searched 140,968 coins to find my first Mule.
Well hopefully then just another 15,000 to the next one! ErikP
Linda's future son-in-law found this today:
(https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xat1/v/t34.0-12/11997936_10153575913817052_1451975262_n.jpg?oh=2b1e9c70e42f79f9b4569e1a4b482b67&oe=55F6939C)
I'll see about dropping by in a couple weeks and having a good look at it. He'll probably want to sell it.
Good job. Congrats to them
it has definitely seen some circulation in the last 15 years
is it the $1 ?
I don't place any value or trust in a few members comments here
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='79235' dateline='1442051495'is it the $1 ?
Of course.
Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='79223' dateline='1442045489'Linda's future son-in-law found this today:
(https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xat1/v/t34.0-12/11997936_10153575913817052_1451975262_n.jpg?oh=2b1e9c70e42f79f9b4569e1a4b482b67&oe=55F6939C)
I'll see about dropping by in a couple weeks and having a good look at it. He'll probably want to sell it.
Looks like a $2 coin to me :dodgy:
It doesn't look like your typical rim configuration for a $1 mule
Looks OK to me. :good:
Here's Linda's Mule:
http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/171935450215
Well, not hers, but close enuf. Apparently the kid was about to put it in a vending machine too. :diablo:
Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='79497' dateline='1442471802'Here's Linda's Mule:
http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/171935450215
Well, not hers, but close enuf. Apparently the kid was about to put it in a vending machine too. :diablo:
Seems to be going well :good:
Quote from: 'trout' pid='79498' dateline='1442472866'Seems to be going well :good:
Yeah.. $560. I'm guessing maybe $700, but we'll see.
Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='79528' dateline='1442508483'Quote from: 'trout' pid='79498' dateline='1442472866'Seems to be going well :good:
Yeah.. $560. I'm guessing maybe $700, but we'll see.
It wasn't that long ago when the average price for one of these was $400.
Nice to see that at least some of the coins are appreciating in value :good:
I hope the low end price increase also translates to a price increase for the
better grades as well but I think there aren't as many people willing to spend
big bucks at the moment but this particular auction gives me hope
Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='79535' dateline='1442528002'I hope the low end price increase also translates to a price increase for the
better grades as well but I think there aren't as many people willing to spend
big bucks at the moment but this particular auction gives me hope
You see that MS63 that keeps relisting at $9,000? I think they're dreaming, but eventually some fool will buy it.
Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='79560' dateline='1442556301'Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='79535' dateline='1442528002'I hope the low end price increase also translates to a price increase for the
better grades as well but I think there aren't as many people willing to spend
big bucks at the moment but this particular auction gives me hope
You see that MS63 that keeps relisting at $9,000? I think they're dreaming, but eventually some fool will buy it.
Hhm interesting point of view, however I see it as the decimal version of a 1930 penny and one day you will look back and go "damn to think I could have got one of them in ms for under $10k"
Personally I expect my children to reap the full benefit of my mules as decimals haven't come into their own yet
Quote from: 'serial' pid='79568' dateline='1442560754'Quote from: 'Fulvio' pid='79560' dateline='1442556301'Quote from: 'stevo1962' pid='79535' dateline='1442528002'I hope the low end price increase also translates to a price increase for the
better grades as well but I think there aren't as many people willing to spend
big bucks at the moment but this particular auction gives me hope
You see that MS63 that keeps relisting at $9,000? I think they're dreaming, but eventually some fool will buy it.
Hhm interesting point of view, however I see it as the decimal version of a 1930 penny and one day you will look back and go "damn to think I could have got one of them in ms for under $10k"
Personally I expect my children to reap the full benefit of my mules as decimals haven't come into their own yet
Does that mean I should hang onto all of my 1973 MS66 50 cent coins ?
With Emu's estimated population of 6,000 of these they are Not rare at all , it is just the "Hype" that keeps the price up :ok:
In another couple of decades these will be like *I HAVE A POTTY MOUTH* , everyone will have one :)
Quote from: 'trout' pid='79576' dateline='1442566927'In another couple of decades these will be like *I HAVE A POTTY MOUTH* , everyone will have one :)
Mmmm... dunno about that.
They're still circulating, and they're not getting any younger. Its a bit like that roadkill wavy 2 I was given recently.... yes, its a wavy 2, but you'd never know it until you put it under a scope, and even then...
I do think $9k is too high for the UNC ones, but OTOH, it only needs a handful of collectors to want one to drive the price sky high, given that there are very few examples.
Yeah they can only go up in price from here and good luck to the people who had the luck or foresight to
get the unc examples cheap or out of circulation early
Just an aside -not to really to hijack the thread.
Fulvio, that wavy 2 I gave you is always worth 20¢. Value, as a conversation piece...incalculable. An MS 6X example would be worth, maybe, greater than $1,000.
So a 5000;1 ratio in value -goes to show how the second of the two principal coin value determiners (scarcity and condition) influences the worth.
Quote from: 'JeffH' pid='79583' dateline='1442569540'Just an aside -not to really to hijack the thread.
But we're reknowned threadjackers from way back!
Yeah, I've been using it as a conversation piece since it arrived. It holds peoples' attention far longer than anything else, as they try and figure out if it really is a wavy. :)
Value is relative. There are plenty of expensive things I wouldn't give two bob for, yet some things with no intrinsic value hold great long term attraction.
Agreed.
I think they are the modern version of the 1931 dropped one Indian die
one for the specialist collector with deep pockets
or the hobbyist who ferrets through hundreds, thousands and in the case of decimal coins, millions for that face value found ultimate die variety coin
we have never found one ... maybe one day or maybe they have all been found ('31 that is .. I don't care for that decimal mule $1)
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='79595' dateline='1442574375'we have never found one ... maybe one day or maybe they have all been found ('31 that is .. I don't care for that decimal mule $1)
See, this is the difference...
Predecimals are no longer something you can find. You have to buy them from someone who found them back in the day, or a long chain of someones.
Decimals are available for anyone with the perseverance to bother looking.
And one day, in the not-too-distant future, decimals will also be a thing of the past. If we don't become a republic, we will at least have a new king (or kings). Either way, all the lizzies will disappear.
Just like all the current notes will be gone by the end of the decade.
agree
my dealer found a dropped one '31 a few years ago from a bulk lot
but yes, they were few and far between and most may have been found
and it's what you are into
I still can't figure out those incused 50c - my brain just does not compute!
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='79625' dateline='1442618536'I still can't figure out those incused 50c - my brain just does not compute!
They're actually quite easy once you see one.
The incused design was supposed to be filled with paint, until they gave up and pad printed them instead. So the stripes on the flag are recessed to accommodate the paint, you see? And also the bottom of the stars, which were also to be filled, are flat, unlike the standard ones which have a rough surface.
stay on topic this is $1 mule not 50c incuse
Quote from: 'runway' pid='79680' dateline='1442669709'stay on topic this is $1 mule not 50c incuse
ha ha I was waiting for that!!!
ya didn't let me down on that one runway!
Quote from: 'robbiegal' pid='79688' dateline='1442705725'Quote from: 'runway' pid='79680' dateline='1442669709'stay on topic this is $1 mule not 50c incuse
ha ha I was waiting for that!!!
ya didn't let me down on that one runway!
New thread https://www.australian-coins.net/showthread.php?tid=4064 :yahoo:
The final price was $721 with 16 bids! Not too shabby for a $1 found in circulation, eh? :)