For those who may be interested I have kept a record of prices realised on ebay for Australian mint sets.
Basically I got the average value for each year (average of up to 15 completed listings) and then added the averages for each year up to get the total for all sets from 1966-2007. Does that make sense?
I did this several times between 2007 and 2011. I haven't done 2012 or 2013 yet and if people are interested in the data I could add this.
It is interesting to see the total value has fallen from around $1,600 in 2007 to around $1,400 in 2011.
Graph attached below...
Nice confirmation of what we all pretty much knew already. Good work!
Quote from: 'dreamcatcher' pid='21671' dateline='1373958175'For those who may be interested I have kept a record of prices realised on ebay for Australian mint sets.
Basically I got the average value for each year (average of up to 15 completed listings) and then added the averages for each year up to get the total for all sets from 1966-2007. Does that make sense?
I did this several times between 2007 and 2011. I haven't done 2012 or 2013 yet and if people are interested in the data I could add this.
It is interesting to see the total value has fallen from around $1,600 in 2007 to around $1,400 in 2011.
Graph attached below...
Was it a fall across the board or did some of them hold their value?
Hi Stevo. Good question. I went through the data and have listed the change in value from October 2007 to April 2011 below. For example according to my data the 1966 set fell by about 18% while the 1969 set appreciated by 29%.
Keep in mind some of the years may only have 3 or 4 data points and if there were a few high or low priced results at the time it can move the average for the year quite a bit. This was the case for the 1980 set recorded in 2011, where there was only 3 results and one of them sold for $22 which significantly increased the average price, resulting in an apparent appreciation of 72%.
As a result looking at the data as a total value for sets between 1966-2007 is probably the most accurate way of looking at it.
Here is the relative change for each year. Comments and questions are welcome!
1966 = 82%
1969 = 129%
1970 = 99%
1971 = 76%
1972 = 104%
1973 = 93%
1074 = 93%
1975 = 83%
1976 = 149%
1977 = 100%
1978 = 82%
1979 = 80%
1980 = 172%
1981 = 105%
1982 = 90%
1083 = 58%
1984 = 90%
1985 = 67%
1986 = 103%
1987 = 104%
1988 = 89%
1989 = 103%
1990 = 90%
1991 = 99%
1992 = 68%
1993 = 90%
1994 = 79%
1995 = 75%
1996 = 102%
1997 = 61%
1998 = 74%
1999 = 59%
2000 = 72%
2001 = 78%
2002 = 69%
2003 = 107%
2004 = 102%
2005 = 75%
2006 = 94%
2007 = 86%
Interesting... whole lotta dogs in there, eh? ;)
Good work collecting the data dreamcatcher.
Any chance of a / Year / Low $ / High $ / Perhaps Avg$ / # Sold / list? (Asking a lot aren't I) :angel:
Attached (hopefully readable) are stats that have been collected for mint set sales on Ebay over the past couple of years.
Unicorn - I have the data to be able to highlight the low and high sale prices but not sure I can collate it in the short term (the next couple of weeks).
Please be aware that the average prices are inclusive of postage since postage charges can vary quite significantly from sale to sale.
Trends are downward as already highlighted by dreamcatcher's original post.
[attachment=2140]
Pedro
Cool Pedro ...... all quite readable!
Don't go to any trouble, just thought it would be a great guide for anyone here who was in the buying / selling market as the historical info on ebay now is so limited.
I should also have added that there can be quite significant variations in prices paid which should in theory be based on the quality of the sets particularly for the earlier years (ie 1960s and 1970s). However, this is not always so!
It may be just me (looking at a computer screen) but there seem to have been more older sets of lower quality (at least in terms of damage to wallets, degree of toning, PVC affects etc) being sold this year than previous years and this may also be a factor in the downward trend in prices. Storage and set age may be having an influence and sellers may be trying to make hay before sets deteriorate further.
Regardless it is clear that the overall tone of the market is downward for the majority of mint sets.
Pedro
Have you done the data on Mint Proof sets?
I would disregard any sales of a mint set before 1984 when sets were in pvc wallets
Sorry Trout - I haven't done the same type of thing for proof sets.
Pedro
Pedro that's a fantastic data set well done. Couple of questions...Can you explain why you have data for the 2012 set recorded in the 2011 rows and the 2013 in the 2012 rows? Can you sum all the averages for your 2011, 2012, and 2013 record (say for years 1996-2010) so we have a total value for the sets. This would be similar to the way my data is presented. I'd like to compare the trends of our data.
Great effort- Stats like this are a wonderful baseline for us.! I will be using these to answer a few queries from the old blokes at the Golf Club. :ok:
Dreamcatcher - the RAM starts selling mint sets for a year in about November of the previous year so some 2012 sets were sold on Ebay late in 2011 etc.
I will see what I can do about including an aggregation of the averages - I assume you meant 1966 - 2010 (rather than 1996)?
Pedro
Dreamcatcher - how did you handle 1966 and 1969 in your calculations since there were multiple set variations in those years? ie in 1966 there were the blue cards as well as red, green, blue and black folders (and throw in the BP sets) which have varying CVs/market prices. For 1969 there were blue and red folders - blue being more valuable.
Did you only use one variant in each of these years as a base?
Pedro
Sorry Pedro yes I meant 1966-2010.
For 1966 I only counted the cards which as you know are more common and consistently priced. For 1969 I included blue and red folders together in the data.
My data is price realised for the sets and not postage.
I'm impressed with the comprehensiveness of your data.
OK, here we go with an amended table including an aggregate of sale prices for the years 1966 to 2010 inclusive. The revised document has been put together quickly so please advise if I have messed up.
As dreamcatcher has been working without postage included the aggregate has been adjusted for an approximate allowance to remove postage from the equation - as can be seen $3.50 for 2011 and $3.75 for 2012 and 2013. These amounts can be amended if it is felt that these amounts are suspect.
I have averaged across 1969 and 1984 and 1985 (the latter 2 covering the clear and yellow plastic).
The double bar sets of 1979 and 1980 have been excluded as have the 1994 wide date sets (these 3 are the higher value sets for the respective years but have been sold in significantly lower volumes. However, the wide date sets do seem to have come out of the woodwork so far this year!). These can be averaged in if required.
[attachment=2145]
Have fun.
Pedro
Thats great Pedro ....... gee the 72-74 have remained solid. The 2000 losing a lot of appeal.
(Edit: put the i in solid ..... nice graph below dreamcatcher)
Thanks very much Pedro.
I combined our aggregated data for the years 2007-2013 and drew up a graph. I used my data for 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 and your data for 2011, 2012, and 2013.
We both have data for 2011 and my total is $1397 and yours is $1410 (for sets 1966-2007) . That's very close! While we both had different methodologies in obtaining our data I think for this purpose it's ok to combine them. The graph is attached...
Pretty interesting stuff I think. I am surprised at how much they've lost value. Anyway I still think a top quality mint set for every year is a must have for the Aussie decimal collector!!
OK, looks like the estimate for postage was reasonable since our numbers are pretty close dreamcatcher - at least for 2011.
There seems to be an inkling of an upturn in some mint set prices (eg 1992, 1995) over the past few weeks. Will be interesting to see if that is sustained and or spreads. May be just a factor of what looks like a bit of a slowdown in the number of sets being put up for sale generally and an increased proportion of sets being offered at higher BIN prices.
Pedro
Yeah I think your postage estimate was reasonable.
How did you get your data Pedro? Do you have a way of automatically downloading it from ebay or do you manually follow all completed listings?
I wish it were automated but no, its a manual data extraction process.
Pedro
That is a huge effort to record all those sets like you do. Can we revisit this next year (if not before of course) and update the data!?
Should be possible dreamcatcher (unless I get bored in the meantime! :D)
Pedro
So we've established that Mint sets have been falling in value since 2007.
Banknotes have also been falling in value as evidenced by the latest Maccas.
There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that the 1930 penny and 1923 half pennies have also been falling in value.
So what are peoples theories about why this is happening?
Is it due the lingering effects of the GFC?
Is it because more people are on line these days so they are selling things they wouldn't normally sell? (ie the eBay phenomena?)
Is it because the Baby Boomers are starting to pass away and their collections are appearing on the market.
Or is this just a cyclical downturn in numismatics?
I have noticed a definite drop in prices achieved for 1923 halfpennies over the last couple of years and I think its cyclical a bit like housing prices.I don't think prices can continue to go down and I would hope there is a point where they will bottom out.Just my opinion
QuoteIs it because the Baby Boomers are starting to pass away and their collections are appearing on the market.
I'm a "Baby Boomer" and I ain't quite dead yet, Anyway my little collection wouldn't affect prices in the least.
I do believe that it is a combination of all those things tho :ok:
I agree with MOR
1. e-bay - the supply is killing all the collectable markets - a lot of antique toys that use to sell for thousands now only sell for a few hundred as people list up their finding from grandad's garage
2. the collectors from the 1960's and 1970's are all starting to kick the bucket , so for example, I reckon a lot of the 1970 captain cooks are now showing up in the market place at a fast rate - the owners have died - the collection is on the market place. I see the lots coming into the local coin show & lately they have all been deceased lots or grannie is going' to the home' and the family are cleaning out her 'junk' as one woman called her grandmothers' coin collection
3. over inflation on the top end coins, is catching up on the market as well, just the same as the housing market
I don't think that the fall in prices are "Across the board" tho :ok:
There are some coins that keep increasing in value/cost.
I would imagine that the proliferation of fake/counterfeit coins has shaken investor confidence quite a lot and that is why the slabbed coins seem to be doing quite well.
The upside of all this is that we as collectors get to grab some bargains every now and then from the unslabbed/raw coins on offer.:wavemulticolor:
I remember was I was a kid in the late 80s stamp collecting was BIG. People paid $s for a single stamp. Now you can buy a box full of albums of the same stamps for almost nothing.
While coins have been a much better investment than stamps I think there are two main reasons for the decline...
1. The sheer number of "collectable" coins is verging on the rediculous. A 1923 half penny or 1925 penny used to be a focus of attention. Now they're just one of a million different available coins. Even coin collectors don't necessarily want them, there are other coins to collect including about 50 highly priced new releases this year!
2. There is just so many things to keep people entertained these days. Mobile phones, the internet, gadgets, computer games, and hobbies are being promoted everywhere. It used to be coins, stamps, figurines, a book or a ball. That was it.
I think the reason why stamps have lost their favour is because you hardly ever see a stamp on an envelope or parcel these days they are nearly always "Franked"
IF we head down the path of a totally cashless society exclusively using or cards then I imagine coins will loose their favour as well.
There ARE a lot more distractions out there these days and that IS one of the contributing factors.
When I was a kid a fishing rod and a bucket of worms and I was "Good for the day", It just seems like now if it isn't electronic or battery powered why bother :dodgy: